How much will Kansas really cool off this fall? Old Farmer’s Almanac predictions

As the summer heat settles in, are you craving sweater weather?

If so, you’re probably already looking forward to fall and its crisp air, orange leaves and pumpkin flavors.

But for much of the country, including most of Kansas, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a warm, dry autumn.

“It won’t feel like fall everywhere,” The Old Farmer’s Almanac said in its fall forecast. “Warmer than average weather settles over the nation’s interior this September and October — from the Northern Plains through the Heartland and into the Deep South. Meanwhile, most of the eastern United States and the Pacific Coast are expected to be cooler than average.”

You can also expect fall to be drier than normal across most of the U.S., according to the July 10 prediction.

In Kansas, only the southeast part of the state is expected to be cooler than average.

Is the Old Farmer’s Almanac reliable?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac makes the annual forecast using three main pillars: solar science, climatology and meteorology.

“By watching the Sun’s activity, studying long term weather patterns, and tracking changes in the atmosphere, we piece together the signals that hint at what each season may bring,” the almanac said. “We compare those signals to a 30-year statistical average prepared by government meteorological agencies; our current benchmark spans 1991–2020.”

The almanac says it is correct in its weather predictions about 80% of the time.

What does the National Weather Service predict?

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for September, October and November shows Kansas has “equal chances” of being warmer or cooler than normal.

The forecast also shows “equal chances” for above normal or below normal precipitation.