Quick Scout: Reasons to like — and not like — Texas Tech’s chances vs. KU basketball
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: No. 5 Kansas at No. 14 Texas Tech, 6 p.m., United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 6-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 8
Point spread: Texas Tech by 1 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Defense ... overall: Texas Tech ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and also has ranked top nine or better in each of the last three seasons under coach Chris Beard.
▪ Creating havoc: The Red Raiders are seventh in defensive turnover percentage and have started pressuring about twice as much in the full court this season compared to last.
▪ Restricting close shots: Texas Tech’s no-middle, aggressive-help defense has effectively kept others from scoring inside, as 23% of opponents’ shots have been at the rim (17th-lowest defensive mark nationally).
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Shot selection: Texas Tech settles for a lot of mid-range jumpers, with 39% of its field-goal attempts coming from that overall inefficient area (14th-highest percentage nationally).
▪ Schedule: The Red Raiders have faced the 289th-toughest slate so far according to KenPom ... and they lost to the only team they played in the top 100 (Houston, 64-53, at neutral site).
▪ Fouling: Texas Tech has allowed opponents to shoot an above-average number of free throws each of the last four seasons, with that trend continuing in this year’s first seven games as well.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Mac McClung (No. 0)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Excellent passer who rarely turns it over
Plus: Creates well off the dribble
Plus: Gets fouled often and is outstanding free throw shooter
Plus: Thrives in transition
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim, especially in half-court settings
Minus: Doesn’t hesitate to fire up threes, but just a 30% career shooter there
PREDICTION
This one has me conflicted.
The numbers would lean Texas Tech against the spread, as KenPom’s projections have the Red Raiders by two while Bart Torvik’s numbers like them winning by five.
Yet ... there are reasons to wonder about Texas Tech in this spot too. For one, the Red Raiders statistically have one of the top home-court advantages in the country, and that could be limited some because of 25% capacity this season.
One also has to pause a little when looking at how Texas Tech performed against Houston, as it trailed by as much as 20 in the second half before eventually losing by 11.
The Red Raiders offense hasn’t been pretty yet. The team relies mostly on transition, offensive rebounds and free throws, morphing a bit this season into a Bob Huggins-like team on that end.
Defensively, though, Texas Tech has been excellent ... and is likely to pick up an extra call or two at home. KU’s guards will have to withstand pressure, and shooters like Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun will have to be comfortable shooting under duress.
I’m not super-confident with this pick, as I feel like Vegas is about right here. Forced to pick a side, I’ll stick with Texas Tech, trusting that its early defensive numbers will prove to be legit.
Texas Tech 66, Kansas 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas Tech.
HAWK TO ROCK
Texas Tech’s defense doesn’t have many vulnerabilities, but it has had some issues with both fouling and defensive rebounding. KU’s best starter at getting to the offensive boards and foul line? That would be Jalen Wilson, who should have the opportunity for another high-scoring game.
Last game prediction: Kansas 80, Omaha 60 (Actual: Kansas 95-50) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 3-3
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 122-90-3
This story was originally published December 17, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Quick Scout: Reasons to like — and not like — Texas Tech’s chances vs. KU basketball."
