What are KU Jayhawks’ odds of winning Big 12? Here’s what two projection sites say
Though Kansas men’s basketball doesn’t often get to play the “nobody believed in us” card, this season might turn out to be a notable exception.
Because of the KU’s inconsistency so far — and also the top-heavy nature of the Big 12 — the Jayhawks are not favorites to win the Big 12 this season, according to two college basketball projections sites.
KU, in fact, is much closer to longshot than favorite — a position it hasn’t been in often while winning at least a share of the league title 15 of the last 16 seasons.
Asking college hoops analyst Ken Pomeroy in particular for his KU projections to win the Big 12 has become an annual tradition of sorts:
• In 2017-18, KU had a 47% chance of winning before conference play (the Jayhawks won that season);
• In 2018-19, the Jayhawks were at 54% (Texas Tech and Kansas State shared the crown);
• Last season, KU was at 75% (before winning the league title outright).
With that context ... here are the odds of each team winning at least a share of the Big 12 title in 2020-21 according to Pomeroy, who ran 10,000 simulations Tuesday.
| Odds to at least share Big 12 title | |
| Baylor | 64% |
| Texas | 19% |
| West Virginia | 16% |
| Texas Tech | 12% |
| Kansas | 12% |
| Oklahoma | 3% |
| Oklahoma State | 1% |
| *Source: Ken Pomeroy |
This probably isn’t an indictment on KU as much as it is a nod to how impressive the conference has been. KU ranks ninth in KenPom’s rankings, but Baylor, Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech are all currently above the Jayhawks.
I asked Pomeroy if he personally likes KU’s chances at any higher than that, and he said probably not much given the circumstances. For one, his system likes KU more than some other rankings (more on that in a moment), and also, this year’s reduced home-court advantage has the potential to work against the Jayhawks.
This brings us to Bart Torvik’s numbers, which are even more pessimistic about KU’s chances. Here’s a look at his site’s league projections, based on 50,000 simulations:
Odds to at least share Big 12 title | |
| Baylor | 44% |
| Texas | 32% |
| West Virginia | 26% |
| Texas Tech | 22% |
| Kansas | 6% |
| Oklahoma | 4% |
| *Source: BartTorvik.com |
The numbers above reflect how Torvik’s system sees KU at the moment — as the Big 12’s fifth-best team, while solidly behind the other four. The Jayhawks are currently 20th in his rankings, a combination of the team not dominating some earlier inferior opponents while also not starting from as high of a point (KU was 11th in Torvik’s preseason ratings) as some other sites out there.
I asked Torvik if he would personally handicap KU’s chances any higher, and his answer was yes ... if anyone was offering him 16-to-1 odds, for example, he said he’d be happy betting the Jayhawks. Still, that thought would be more a reflection of KU’s recent history rather than a specific endorsement of this year’s roster.
Based on an informal Twitter poll I put up Wednesday, KU fans have tempered expectations this season ... but still like the Jayhawks a lot more than the models.
Here’s how the first 753 respondents answered the question, “What would you say are KU’s odds to win at least a share of the Big 12 title this season?”
What would you say are KU’s odds to win at least a share of the Big 12 title this season? | |
| 25% or less | 9% |
| 26-50% | 31% |
| 51-75% | 35% |
| 76% or more | 25% |
A majority of KU fans, then, think the Jayhawks are better than a coin flip to win the league this season.
Maybe the “nobody believed in us” rallying cry will have to focus more on computers. If KU wins in 2020-21, it will certainly have done so while defying the statistical odds.
Even if most fans would perceive it a little bit differently.
This story was originally published December 16, 2020 at 12:20 PM with the headline "What are KU Jayhawks’ odds of winning Big 12? Here’s what two projection sites say."
