How hot will it be in Wichita this fall? It all depends on this weather pattern

The Wichita area could see a warmer, drier fall compared to the past, according to one National Weather Service meteorologist.

“We are favoring a warmer and drier fall, but other weather patterns that are basically just unpredictable this far out. They [could] overpower, [and] hopefully bring some lighter than normal conditions, because it’s been pretty dry as of late,” said Andy Kleinsasser with the National Weather Service’s Wichita office.

Kleinsasser said the warm and dry conditions could be due to a La Niña, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator are cooler than average, which disrupts current weather patterns.

While strong La Niñas typically bring warmer temperatures, the current models show this one is a weak to moderate one, which could mean the impacts may not be felt.

“Because it’s not expected to be a strong La Niña, it’ll be more difficult for it to bring typical La Niña conditions to Kansas,” Kleinsasser said.

But whether La Niña is weak or strong, Kleinsasser said, the state could use above-average rainfall as it continues experiencing drought conditions. The U.S. drought monitor shows Sedgwick County experiencing severe drought, moderate drought and “abnormally dry” conditions.

“At least in the next couple weeks, it looks like we’re not going to get that above average rainfall,” Kleinsasser said.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center shows the state of Kansas has a 33-40% chance to see above-normal temperatures for the months of September through November.

What does the average fall look like in Wichita?

The first day of fall is Sept. 1, and with the change of season comes cooler temperatures across the state.

According to Kleinsasser, September usually means the average high in the 80s for Wichita.

“And then as we get toward the end of September, that average goes into the upper 70s,” Kleinsasser said.

As fall continues to progress, average highs continue to drop in the area.

Kleinsasser said that beginning in October the average highs are in the 70s and keeps dropping. By November, the average high temperatures for Wichita sit at 64 degrees.

“As we get toward the end of November, that average drops down to right around 50,” Kleinsasser said. “From near 90 at the beginning of September to 50 at the end of November.”

What’s Wichita’s weather forecast this week?

Wichita is experiencing a hot week this week, with highs in the triple digits.

Kleinsasser said triple digits are expected to fade to temps around 98 and 99 in the weekend, but return next Monday and Tuesday. Then, a cold front in the U.S. could mean lower temperatures for the end of next week, he said.

Here’s this week’s weather forecast, from the National Weather Service:

• Wednesday: Sunny during the day with a high around 104, low near 78 and chance of showers in the evening.
• Thursday: Chance of showers in the morning, sunny during the day with a high around 103. Low about 76.
• Friday: Sunny and a high of 101 during the day and a low of 74.
• Saturday: Sunny with a high of 99 and a low of 73.
• Sunday: Sunny and a high near 100 and a low near 74.
• Monday: High of about 100.

Lindsay Smith

The Wichita Eagle

Lindsay Smith is a suburban news reporter for the Wichita Eagle, covering the communities of Andover, Bel Aire, Derby, Haysville and Kechi. She has been on The Eagle staff since 2022 and was the service journalism reporter for three years. She has a degree in communications with an emphasis in journalism from Wichita State, where she was editor-in-chief of the student newspaper, The Sunflower, for two years. You can reach her via email at lsmith@wichitaeagle.com.