December brought good news and bad news on COVID in Kansas and Wichita

December marked a mix of good news and bad news about the coronavirus pandemic in Kansas and Wichita.

In the good news, the state as a whole and Sedgwick County both experienced improvement in their positive test rates and their rates of new cases per capita. Vaccines made it into the arms of many health care workers and nursing home residents and staff. Sedgwick County’s current COVID hospitalizations improved.

In the bad news, Kansas ended the month with the nation’s worst ranking for new per-capita death reports and vaccination rates. Sedgwick County ended the month with an uptick in its case rate and positive test rate. The local hospital status remained “critical” as ICUs continued to operate at capacity.

New cases and positive test rates

Kansas Department of Health and Environment data show that the new case rate improved every week in December. The state went from a one-week rate of about 595 new cases per 100,000 people for the week beginning Nov. 29 to about 343 per 100,000 for the week beginning Dec. 27.

The case rate also improved in Sedgwick County for the first three weeks of the month before worsening in the final week, according to the local health department’s data.

The numbers show the rate started at about 469 new cases per 100,000 people for the week beginning Nov. 29. It improved to about 270 new cases per 100,000 during the week beginning Dec. 20 before worsening to about 317 new cases during the week beginning Dec. 27.

Public health officials caution that the most recent data may be incomplete, so case rates and positive test rates may change.

Additionally, the KDHE’s case rate includes confirmed and probable cases, in accordance with guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sedgwick County only reports confirmed cases, contrary to CDC guidance, leading to a lower case count than what the KDHE reports for the county.

Rapid antigen tests, which are a primary source of probable cases, are not included in positive test rate calculations.

Sedgwick County’s jump in cases at the end of the month does not appear to be caused by an increase in testing or a delay in testing. The last week of December actually had the fewest tests reported since the end of October, while having a simultaneous spike in the positive test rate.

The county’s data showed the positive test rate was 16.8% during the week beginning Nov. 29. It improved to 10.3% for the week beginning Dec. 20, then jumped to 14.4% for the week beginning Dec. 27.

The KDHE reported a similar pattern in the positive test rate. The statewide rate started at 15.1%, dropped to 9.4%, then jumped to 13.0%.

The above numbers are all one-week rates. The White House COVID-19 Task Force considers positivity rates above 10% and case rates greater than 100 per 100,000 people to be in the red zone.

By the federal standards, neither Kansas nor Sedgwick County left the red zone for those pandemic indicators.

Deaths, clusters, hospitals and vaccinations

The KDHE reported 1,319 new deaths in Kansas between Nov. 30 and Jan. 1, raising the pandemic total to 2,879 as of that date. The death counts are based on the day they were reported, not on the date of death.

Kansas started January with the country’s highest rate of newly-reported deaths.

The KDHE started reporting county-level death data on Dec. 16, showing a significantly higher death count in Sedgwick County than what local officials reported. Both state and local officials say their own numbers are accurate, and they both say they use the same source for their data.

According to the KDHE, Sedgwick County had 406 total deaths as of Jan. 1, which was an increase of 91 from the Dec. 16 report.

According to the local government, Sedgwick County had 282 total deaths as of Dec. 31, which was an increase of 132 from Dec. 1.

Nursing home clusters were a big contributor to the statewide surge in reported deaths.

The KDHE reported 258 total new clusters between Dec. 2 and Wednesday, with nursing homes accounting for about 46% of the increase. Of the 564 deaths connected to clusters during the same time span, 96% were from a new or previously-reported outbreak at a long-term care facility.

The state did see a December decline in the number of active clusters, which dropped by 120 during that time. Fewer clusters in education — at K-12 schools and college or universities, which closed for winter break — accounted for 46% of that drop.

In Sedgwick County, 30% of the new deaths reported in December by the local health department were connected to nursing home clusters. The county reported 22 new outbreaks at long-term care facilities during that time.

The hospital status remains “critical” in Sedgwick County, according to the local health department, despite improvement in the current number of COVID-19 patients.

As of Nov. 30, Ascension Via Christi and Wesley Healthcare were treating a combined 273 patients with COVID-19. That number improved every week, dropping to 216 on Jan. 4.

The number of those patients in the ICU went from 80 to 70, but that final week’s number was an increase of four from the previous week. Despite the improvement in ICU admissions for COVID-19, all approximately 208 beds in Wichita’s public hospital intensive care units remain full.

Public health experts say vaccines are a light at the end of the tunnel, but the CDC recently ranked Kansas last for its vaccine roll-out. State and local officials have blamed a lag in reporting. It is unclear where Kansas would rank without the delayed reporting.

“There’s a lot of vaccine that has been given out that has not actually been successfully reported to our state health department or CDC,” county health director Adrienne Byrne said Wednesday, adding that Sedgwick County has received more doses than expected at this point in the roll-out.