March Madness: Five things Wichita State needs to do to beat Marshall
By Taylor Eldridge
Wichita State's Markis McDuffie, Landry Shamet and Shaq Morris walk off the court after practice Thursday in San Diego.
Travis Heying
The Wichita Eagle
No. 13 Marshall (24-10) vs. No. 4 Wichita State (25-7)
Figure out the pick-and-roll coverage. We have seen some games this season where it has taken until halftime for WSU to make the necessary adjustments on pick-and-roll coverages. In non-conference play, South Dakota State torched WSU with slip screens and Oklahoma brutalized WSU's defense with a simple pick, roll, and replace action. The bad news is that Marshall has someone who can do both in its 6-foot-3 playmaker Jon Elmore, who averages 22.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists. Marshall is proficient at scoring in transition and most of the time it takes its first semi-open look, but the pick-and-roll game still makes up a quarter of its offense, per Synergy. D'Antoni loves having the big man (Ajdin Penava or Jannson Williams) pretend to set a screen for Elmore up top, only to slip it and pop out to the three-point line for an open shot. It's the play OU used constantly to drop 50-plus points on WSU in the first half at Intrust Bank Arena. Because of the attention Elmore creates with his scoring ability, Marshall ranks in the 99th percentile, per Synergy, in scoring off the roll man in the pick and roll (1.33 points per possession). WSU's defense has done poorly defending the pick and roll all season, but especially limiting the effectiveness of the ball handler. The Shockers started switching all screens, one through four, late in the season and that prevented as many easy looks. I would expect WSU to once again switch all screens against Marshall, but I would also like to see them change it up and throw different looks at Elmore to keep him off-balanced. Maybe frenzy a few screens to create a double-team at the point of attack and force the ball out of Elmore's hands. Regardless, it will be an interesting (and important) game-within-the-game to monitor. It's going to be next-to-impossible to prevent Marshall from jacking close to 30 threes on Friday, but what WSU can do is contest as many of those shots as possible. If WSU can limit the open looks and Marshall makes 35 percent or less of its threes, then an upset bid is unlikely.
Keep Shaq Morris out of foul trouble. Contrary to a lot of the buzz entering this game, I think it will actually be more important for WSU to defend Marshall on two-point shots. It is true Marshall shoots a ton from beyond the perimeter (its 45.6-percent three-point rate is 26th-highest in the country), the Thundering Herd are also generating about 29 attempts per game near the rim and making 59 percent of them. And that figure it up to 62 percent during Marshall's last 12 games when it is 10-2. Marshall ranks 15th nationally in two-point percentage, as it has made 56.1 percent of them this season. Meanwhile, WSU's defense has been very good at defending two-pointers (No. 32 nationally at under 46 percent) because it protects the rim well (opponents shoot 49 percent there). The threat of Morris' shot-blocking ability is a huge reason why. No one else on the roster can deter opponents from driving quite like Morris can, so keeping him on the floor could be vital to WSU's chances of keeping Marshall's success rate below its average on those shots.
Dominate the rebounding battle. WSU is the only team in the country that ranks in the top-20 of both offensive (No. 10) and defensive (No. 11) rebounding percentage. Marshall, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom-60 of both (No. 329 offensively, No. 298 defensively). Ajdin Penava, at 6-foot-9, appears to be the only one to be able to hold his own against the Shockers. But this should be a game where Rashard Kelly, Shaquille Morris, and Darral Willis should feast on second-chance opportunities. We know Marshall is going to shoot a lot of threes, which tend to lead to long rebounds. Guards boxing out on the defensive end will be important to limit Marshall's chances. If WSU can grab 40 percent of its own misses and board out at least 80-percent on the defensive end, then its odds of winning skyrocket.
Take advantage of the edge in experience. According to KenPom's experience factor, WSU is the most experienced team in the NCAA Tournament and Marshall is the 10th-least experienced team in the field. Marshall hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament for 31 years. WSU has qualified seven straight years and has nine players with multiple games of NCAA Tournament experiences (Morris, Kelly, and Zach Brown have played in eight). Marshall will have the nothing-to-lose mentality, but it also has never faced a moment like this before. WSU is a team with six seniors and a pair of three-year studs in Landry Shamet and Markis McDuffie that have all been here before and know how to win in the NCAA Tournament. The longer Marshall hangs around in the game, the more it will believe it can win in the end. WSU needs to use that experience to get off to a fast start and put Marshall in an early hole (or just hope Marshall goes cold in the first half).
Look to the wings and corners. Marshall actually has a somewhat respectable defense around the rim because Penava is blocking 4.1 shots per game, tops in the country. Scoring inside can certainly be done, especially if WSU wears Penava down with its tremendous depth in the frontcourt. But the Shockers will also need to knock down shots from the perimeter. While Landry Shamet has proven effective dribbling into his own threes at the top or catching and shooting on the wing, WSU will need to figure out how to get Austin Reaves and Conner Frankamp firing at the same time. The good news is that Marshall's defense has been porous defending the three-point line in the corners and on the wings, where opponents are shooting 43.2 percent and 35.3 percent respectively. The good news is the wings and corners are where three-quarters of Reaves' and Frankamp's looks have come from this season. Expect to see plenty of open looks there and if WSU can have the trio of Shamet, Frankamp, and Reaves make close to 40 percent of their threes, then it should be in business against Marshall.
Don't feel bad because Vegas can't either. WSU is 12-18 this season against the spread and enters the NCAA Tournament having failed to cover the spread six straight times.
On the surface, this appears to be a dangerous matchup for WSU. Marshall loves to spread the floor, let a playmaker create off a high ball screen, and shoots a ton of threes. All of those things have made life difficult on WSU's defense this season.
But don't forget that Marshall has to figure out a way to slow down the Shockers. On paper, Marshall appears to have no answer for WSU's tenacious rebounding, its depth and experience, and the talent of Shamet and Morris.
If WSU dominates the rebounding battle like I think it will and Marshall shoots under 40 percent on threes, then the Shockers will advance to Sunday. But if Marshall catches fire and makes 40-plus percent, which likely translates into 13-plus threes, then WSU will have a game down the stretch.
Placing your faith in a team that's never been here before is a gamble, especially when its up against a team that has been here, won here, and has nine players with at least two games of NCAA Tournament experience. Not to mention a coach who has a Final Four run under his belt.
Even if WSU doesn't shoot it particularly well, it should grab enough second chances to bolster its offense. The defense should be able to scrap together a good-enough effort and the Shockers will withstand an upset-minded Marshall team (but it still won't cover the spread).
Wichita State 87, Marshall 78
Wichita State's Shaq Morris shoots during WSU's public practice Thursday at Viejas Arena in San Diego. Travis Heying The Wichita Eagle
Shocker Player of the Game
Shaq Morriscan't believe he's here in San Diego and Marshall will wish he wasn't after Friday. While Zach Brown's perimeter defense on Marshall star Jon Elmore and how WSU's bigs cover pick and rolls will certainly be crucial, no one can take Wichita State to another level quite like a tuned-in Morris can. He has the personality, the name, and the game to become a star in March Madness and I think he's ready to elevate himself on the biggest stage. As mentioned above, his presence in the paint will be huge for WSU's defense protecting the rim. But it will also be important for him to exert himself in the low blocks and possibly even draw Marshall's big-time shot-blocker, Ajdin Penava, away from the rim with the threat of his three-point rainbows. Look for WSU to get its big man involved in the offense early, as Morris excels at beating his defender to the low block, pinning them on his backside, and establishing position to set himself up for the easy score before the entry pass even comes. If Morris is scoring inside, then that opens up WSU's offense on the perimeter. While Morris might not score the most points, I expect his impact to be the biggest in this game. I'm thinking around the range of 18 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks to lead WSU to victory.
