Wichita State Shockers

What are Wichita State's chances of advancing in NCAA Tournament? Here's an answer

By Taylor Eldridge
Conner Frankamp, left, and Landry Shamet high-five after Frankamp scored a three-point goal in the final minutes of the game against Connecticut in December at the XL Center in Hartford, Conn.
Conner Frankamp, left, and Landry Shamet high-five after Frankamp scored a three-point goal in the final minutes of the game against Connecticut in December at the XL Center in Hartford, Conn. Jaime Green The Wichita Eagle

What are Wichita State's odds of advancing to the Sweet 16?

According to FiveThirtyEight's projection model, the Shockers have a 50-percent chance of moving on to Boston in the East regional. WSU (25-7) opens the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed against No. 13 seed Marshall (24-10) in San Diego at 12:20 p.m. Friday with the broadcast on TNT.

FiveThirtyEight gives WSU a 91 percent chance to beat Marshall in the first round and a 50-percent chance of winning in the next round against the winner of West Virginia and Murray State. West Virginia, an 84-percent favorite in Round 1, is given a 45-percent chance of advancing to the Sweet 16.

Past that, WSU's odds drastically decrease as it would likely run into No. 1 seed Villanova in Boston in the Sweet 16. The web site gives Villanova the second-highest chances of winning the tournament at 17 percent, just behind Virginia's 18 percent.

WSU has a 13 percent chance of reaching the Elite Eight, a six percent chance of reaching the Final Four in San Antonio, a three percent chance of making the championship game and a one percent chance of winning the title.

This story was originally published March 11, 2018 at 7:53 PM with the headline "What are Wichita State's chances of advancing in NCAA Tournament? Here's an answer."

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