Grading the AAC: report cards for each team’s non-conference results

Wichita State is off to a strong start in its non-conference slate, as news came out on Monday that the Shockers moved up to No. 3 in both the Associated Press and coaches polls.

But how is the rest of WSU’s new mates in the American Athletic Conference faring? I thought it might be a good time to take a second to scan the conference as WSU prepares to play its inaugural AAC game at Connecticut on Dec. 30.

I will go in order of my power rankings in the AAC, give you a look at each team’s four major analytic rankings (KenPom, BPI, T-Rank, and Sagarin) and grade each team’s success to this point in the season.

1. WICHITA STATE (8-1)

KenPom: 4

BPI: 2

T-Rank: 8

Sagarin: 12

RPI: 27

Notable wins: 69-62 at Baylor; 80-66 vs. Marquette*; 78-66 at Oklahoma State

Losses: 67-66 vs. Notre Dame*

SOS: 57

Overview: Six of the nine games have come against Top 125 KenPom competition. WSU has three solid victories, but missed out on a top-20 win over Notre Dame. The Shockers can tack on another solid win and a sweep of the Big 12 teams on the schedule with a win this Saturday against OU. The Florida Gulf Coast game will also be another nice mid-major challenge and add another potential NCAA Tournament team to WSU’s resume.

Grade: B+

2. CINCINNATI (7-2)

KenPom: 13

BPI: 8

T-Rank: 13

Sagarin: 40

RPI: 111

Notable wins: None

Losses: 89-76 at Xavier; 66-60 vs. Florida*

SOS: 57

Overview: The 7-0 start was nice, but it came against without a win against top-100 KenPom competition. Wins over Wyoming and Buffalo on a neutral court are nice, but nothing to brag about if you’re a top-25 team. The Bearcats have whiffed on their two marquee chances, losing to Xavier and Florida. They have two left in Missisippi State at home on Tuesday and at UCLA on Saturday. If Cincy wants a top-three seed come March, it probably needs to win both of those games.

Grade: C

3. SMU (7-3)

KenPom: 22

BPI: 26

T-Rank: 32

Sagarin: 66

RPI: 73

Notable wins: 66-60 vs. Arizona*; 72-55 vs. USC

Losses: 61-58 vs. Northern Iowa*; 63-61 vs. Western Kentucky*; 94-83 at TCU

SOS: 141

Overview: The Arizona win is going to look nice come March, as will a 17-point win over USC. But the Mustangs likely want back those one-possession losses to mid-majors UNI and Western Kentucky. They don’t have any losses that will severely damage their chances at making the NCAA Tournament and have picked up two that will help. SMU has one more chance at a good win against Boise State next Monday.

Grade: B-

4. TEMPLE (6-2)

KenPom: 46

BPI: 38

T-Rank: 48

Sagarin: 57

RPI: 6

Notable wins: 67-60 vs. Clemson*; 88-74 vs. Auburn*; 76-60 vs. South Carolina*; 59-55 vs. Wisconsin; 76-65 vs. Old Dominion*

Losses: 87-83 at La Salle; 71-67 at George Washington

SOS: 34

Overview: It’s been a little bit of a bizarre season for Temple, which has all six of its wins against top-110 teams in KenPom. The two losses? To La Salle (140) and George Washington (158). But the Owls lost those by four points each and could easily be undefeated right now with a little more luck. Temple scheduled very aggressively and should be rewarded for playing so many of these teams away from home on neutral courts. The Owls still have to play No. 1 Villanova on Wednesday and then also Georgia (No. 71) next Friday.

Grade: B+

5. HOUSTON (8-1)

KenPom: 44

BPI: 48

T-Rank: 49

Sagarin: 30

RPI: 121

Notable wins: 91-65 vs. Arkansas; 78-73 vs. Wake Forest*

Losses: 84-80 vs. Drexel*

SOS: 263

Overview: Compared to what Houston has done in its other eight games, the loss to Drexel (ranked outside the top-200 on KenPom) is truly bizarre. That 26-point win over Arkansas at home will look really nice come March and help the Cougars’ resume, and the Wake Forest win will be solid. But nothing else really stands out. Houston does have two more top-100 games left at LSU on Wednesday and against Providence on a neutral floor next Wednesday. Win those and Houston only strengthens its case for an at-large berth at the end of the season.

Grade: B

6. CENTRAL FLORIDA (6-3)

KenPom: 77

BPI: 79

T-Rank: 83

Sagarin: 76

RPI: 32

Notable wins: 65-62 at Alabama; 68-59 vs. Nebraska; 88-79 vs. Mercer

Losses: 83-45 vs. West Virginia; 46-43 vs. St. John’s; 62-59 vs. Missouri

SOS: 97

Overview: The win at Alabama will look really nice come March, while the wins over Nebraska and Mercer are solid. But two losses scoring under 50 points to West Virginia and St. John’s makes you raise your eyebrows a little. It’s been a difficult slate, so to come away 3-3 against top-100 competition is about what you could hope for. The bad news is that UCF plays three throwaway games to finish off its non-conference slate, so the RPI is going to be coming down considerably before the start of conference play. Stealing that game against Missouri would have lifted UCF and given them another minor punch to its resume.

Grade: B-

7. CONNECTICUT (7-3)

KenPom: 96

BPI: 159

T-Rank: 108

Sagarin: 91

RPI: 102

Notable wins: 71-63 at Oregon

Losses: 77-57 vs. Michigan State*; 102-67 vs. Arkansas*; 72-63 vs. Syracuse*

SOS: 117

Overview: UConn doesn’t have a bad loss, as all three are in KenPom’s top-60 teams. But that 35-point loss to Arkansas isn’t one to remember. A win in a semi-road environment over Oregon is a nice catch for the Huskies, but their true tests will be their final two non-conference games at Arizona and at Auburn next week. If UConn can steal one of those, then it has to feel decent heading into AAC play. But go 0-2 and then the Huskies won’t have much to brag about in their 12-game slate.

Grade: C

8. TULSA (5-4)

KenPom: 108

BPI: 116

T-Rank: 117

Sagarin: 109

RPI: 243

Notable wins: 61-54 vs. Kansas State*

Losses: 74-67 vs. Lamar; 80-78 vs. Iowa State*; 84-68 vs. Illinois State*; 65-58 at Illinois State

SOS: 224

Overview: The win over K-State in Wichita is a nice win for Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane played Iowa State close on a neutral court, but the losses to Lamar and Illinois State (twice) aren’t great. Tulsa still has a trip to Stillwater later to play Oklahoma State. Unless it can pull off another upset over a Big 12 team, the non-conference was lackluster for Tulsa.

Grade: C-

9. MEMPHIS (6-2)

KenPom: 159

BPI: 183

T-Rank: 157

Sagarin: 146

RPI: 169

Notable wins: 76-74 vs. Northern Kentucky, 83-81 vs. Mercer

Losses: 82-70 vs. Alabama*; 71-56 at UAB

SOS: 261

Overview: Memphis has already played in a ton of close games and is 4-0 in those games decided by single-digits. But most Memphis fans find that somewhat depressing, considering the level of competition the Tigers are playing. The wins over Northern Kentucky and Mercer are solid, though, and could become NCAA Tournament teams in March. There’s no shame in losing to Alabama on a neutral court, but a 15-point loss at UAB isn’t great. If Memphis is going to improve its postseason resume, then it’s going to need a win over a solid Albany team on Tuesday then pull off the upset over Louisville on a neutral floor on Saturday.

Grade: C

10. TULANE (7-3)

KenPom: 142

BPI: 146

T-Rank: 131

Sagarin: 134

RPI: 98

Notable wins: None

Losses: 70-59 at Georgia State; 97-73 at North Carolina; 72-53 at Florida State

SOS: 154

Overview: Tulane was probably never going to win at UNC or at Florida State, so no harm there. The game at Georgia State served as sort of a swing game and Tulane missed out on a chance there to improve its postseason resume. The Green Wave will only own one top-200 KenPom victory heading into AAC play, as they finish off their non-conference slate with a pair of overmatched teams. There weren’t many games to prove themselves, so not sure we found very much out about Tulane so far.

Grade: C-

11. EAST CAROLINA (5-4)

KenPom: 264

BPI: 263

T-Rank: 269

Sagarin: 264

RPI: 335

Notable wins: None

Losses: 73-66 vs. Radford; 79-68 vs. Central Connecticut; 61-47 at Rutgers; 87-81 vs. North Carolina A&T

SOS: 345

Overview: ECU has won three in a row since its head coach resigned at the start of the season, including two (relatively) solid wins over UNC Wilmington and Campbell. But the damage has already been done with losses to Central Connecticut and Norther Carolina A&T (both 300+ teams on KenPom) at home. The Pirates should extend the the winning streak to five entering AAC play with two more overmatched teams at home. But there’s no saving the RPI now — ECU is going to drag down the profile of AAC teams that has to play it twice in conference.

Grade: D

12. SOUTH FLORIDA (4-6)

KenPom: 297

BPI: 234

T-Rank: 302

Sagarin: 282

RPI: 302

Notable wins: None

Losses: 63-53 vs. Morgan State; 70-53 at Indiana; 65-47 vs. Eastern Michigan; 79-78 at Elon; 84-61 at Appalachian State; 65-53 vs. Florida International

SOS: 297

Overview: USF will enter AAC play with a win over Florida Atlantic (No. 246 on KenPom) as its defining win of the non-conference slate. The Bulls only played one team ranked in KenPom’s top-150 in Indiana and went 0-3 against teams in that 150-200 range, then took two brutal losses to Morgan State and FIU at home. It wasn’t looking great before the season for the Bulls and this non-conference performance confirmed that it will duke it out with ECU for the cellar of the conference.

Grade: D-

This story was originally published December 12, 2017 at 12:51 AM with the headline "Grading the AAC: report cards for each team’s non-conference results."