Kansas State Q&A: Looking ahead to football season

We are nearly out of the summer sports doldrums, which means it’s time to stop playing Pokemon Go and time to start answering your K-State questions.

That’s right, it’s time for another K-State Q&A.

K-State will open its football season at Stanford in 49 days, Big 12 Media Days start on Monday in Dallas and preseason polls are already out. There’s plenty to talk about, so let’s dive right into your questions. Thanks, as always, for asking them.

I’m fairly confident Jesse Ertz will once again start the season at quarterback.

He bulldozed the competition last spring and summer to win the job, and he is facing the same competitors in Alex Delton and Joe Hubener. He was the first quarterback on the field this spring after he recovered from knee surgery. He was voted a team captain. And now Bill Snyder is bringing him to Dallas for Big 12 Media Days.

Maybe he hasn’t officially won the starting spot yet, but it sure seems like the Wildcats expect him to.

I’m not sure what to expect out of Ertz, given how little he has played and how often (twice) he has torn his ACL. My guess is Snyder will take a cautious approach with him when he can. Expect Delton and Hubener to get snaps early against Florida Atlantic and Missouri State. Maybe Delton can push Ertz for a timeshare during preseason camp, but, ultimately, I think Ertz will be the guy.

I think Jesse Ertz will keep his job as long he is healthy. So if he avoids rough tackles to the knee, I expect him to start every game.

But it’s rare for K-State quarterbacks to stay healthy an entire season. Jake Waters played hurt most of his senior year. Collin Klein was too beat up to practice when he was a starter. Then everyone who played quarterback last year got hurt in some way or another. So, can we really expect Ertz to go 13 games unscathed? If not, can we expect Delton, who is coming back from a knee injury of his own, to stay healthy? Doubts abound.

There’s a decent chance Ertz starts Game 1 and Hubener starts Game 12.

Ertz, without question.

Joe Hubener and Kody Cook failed to complete half their passes a year ago and the offense was a disaster. Without improved QB play, it won’t matter how good K-State plays on defense or special teams. The team won’t be any better.

After him, I would probably go with Byron Pringle. K-State also lacked playmakers at receiver last year. The Wildcats need someone to stretch the field, and Pringle is the man to do it.

On paper, K-State should be one of the Big 12’s best defenses this season.

Four preseason All-Big 12 players return (Will Geary, Jordan Willis, Elijah Lee and Dante Barnett) and Charmeachealle Moore and Duke Shelley both came on strong late last season. The Wildcats are loaded with experience.

But I have some doubts about this unit. Aside from Barnett, the majority of those players were out there last season and the results weren’t always good. K-State allowed 31.5 points and 452.2 yards last season. It ranked 121st nationally against the pass (285.5 yards per game) and got shredded for 50-plus points against Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU.

Barnett’s return will help. But Cedric Dozier needs to be strong at corner and K-State needs to find a defensive tackle to play alongside Will Geary. There are holes to fill.

K-State should be good on defense, but I’m not ready to predict anything more than that.

Here is my quick, dirty prediction for the upcoming season, game by game:

At Stanford: Big loss

Florida Atlantic: Easy win

Missouri State: Easy win

at West Virginia: Loss

Texas Tech: Win

at Oklahoma: Big Loss

Texas: Win

at Iowa State: Win

Oklahoma State: Nail-biter win

at Baylor: Win

Kansas: Easy win

at TCU: Loss

So I’ve (optimistically) got the Wildcats going 8-4. The defense is experienced enough to make it happen, and the offense should be better (even with question marks at several positions). But that’s not factoring in injuries.

The way I see it, K-State has three sure wins (FAU, MSU and KU) and three sure losses (at Stanford, at Oklahoma and at TCU). The others are toss-up games. Bill Snyder has never lost to Dana Holgorsen, but I think this is the year West Virginia gets K-State. The Mountaineers have more talent. I would have labeled Baylor a loss, but things could go south in Waco awfully fast this season. Let’s say K-State steals one on the road. Can it also take care of business against Iowa State, Texas and Texas Tech? Can it pull a home upset against Oklahoma State? For now, I say yes to all. But that’s approaching best-case-scenario territory. Maybe it’s safer to predict 7-5.

Beating Stanford would be a game-changer. If K-State is good enough to beat the Cardinal on the road, it’s good enough to win 10 games and challenge for a conference championship.

Northwestern surprisingly beat Stanford in its opener last year and went on to go 10-3.

No less than 1,000.

My pick is Justin Silmon. He’s the most talented running back on the roster and he got off to a great start last season. His potential and skills as a downhill runner far surpasses that of Charles Jones and Dalvin Warmack. But he will need to master K-State’s playbook before he can receive an expanded role in the offense.

If he learns all his plays, Silmon should see lots of carries this season. If not, he will fade into the background the same way he did a year ago.

Snyder will probably make Silmon earn his playing time, though. So I expect K-State’s public depth chart to favor experience over talent. Jones will start, Warmack will have some series to himself and Silmon will come on when needed. That could change after the first three games, though.

I planned on voting in the Big 12 preseason poll, but forgot to do so while on vacation earlier this month. Seems like many of my media peers did the same, as only 26 voters decided the poll.

Anyway, here is how I would have voted.

1. Oklahoma: Clear favorite.

2. TCU: Plays most other contenders at home.

3. Oklahoma State: Good team, but Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma on the road will be tough.

4. West Virginia: Underachievers of late, but the Mountaineers have talent.

5. Baylor: Great roster, on paper. But lots of drama.

6. Kansas State: Experienced defense. Lots of questions on offense.

7. Texas: Beat Oklahoma and Baylor last season and still missed a bowl.

8. Texas Tech: Offense should once again be great. But what about defense?

9. Iowa State: Potential for a step forward is there, but it won’t be easy in the Big 12.

10. Kansas: Surprised Jayhawks weren’t unanimously picked last.

Most true freshmen redshirt under Bill Snyder, but here’s guessing Corey Sutton plays some on offense and a lot on special teams. He looked ready to contribute on some level this spring.

Not many. But, as I mentioned above, Sutton will have a shot. Nick Lenners would be a candidate to play at tight end, one of K-State’s weakest positions. If things go bad at quarterback, Skylar Thompson could be an option to play, too.

K-State’s receiving corps was a wasteland last season, so you can definitely expect improvement. Pringle is the obvious upgrade, but coaches are also high on Isaiah Zuber and Denzel Goolsby. Dominique Heath is back and healthy, too. Maybe Sutton and Zach Reuter can help.

The Wildcats really need Deante Burton to be good. He has the size and the skill to flirt with 750-plus yards, but he has been plagued by drops. He needs to step up as a senior.

This was one of the many questions I got after K-State announced freshman guard Cartier Diarra will miss the upcoming season with a knee injury.

His absence is an unfortunate blow to Bruce Weber’s team. Diarra, though raw as a basketball player, was the most athletic of K-State’s new freshmen. He likely would have come off the bench to help Kamau Stokes, Carlbe Ervin and Barry Brown in the backcourt. Without him, the Wildcats will lack depth at guard.

K-State should be able to get by without him. It’s not as hurtful as losing Stokes was last season (I compare him more to Ervin) but Diarra definitely would have been useful. His absence makes it even more important that Stokes, Brown and Ervin stay healthy. Ervin probably needs to show improvement, too. It would also be nice if Brian Patrick can step in and help off the bench.

This story was originally published July 15, 2016 at 11:12 AM with the headline "Kansas State Q&A: Looking ahead to football season."