What the Vegas odds say about the Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances, Mahomes’ MVP chances
Patrick Mahomes patiently waited for the big-number games, resigned early this season to settle for what defenses offered.
They’ve arrived over the last two weeks. In the Chiefs’ wins against the Jets and Panthers, Mahomes has thrown for a combined 788 yards and nine touchdowns, by far his best statistical two-game stretch of the season.
And yet ... he still trails Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson in the MVP race, according to the Las Vegas oddsmakers. Wilson remains the betting favorite in that discussion, with Mahomes second in the running.
Wilson has 28 touchdowns and 2,541 yards for the 6-2 Seahawks. Mahomes has 2,687 yards and 25 touchdowns for the 7-1 Chiefs. Wilson, though, has thrown eight interceptions. Mahomes has thrown just one, with his 0.3 interception percentage leading all quarterbacks.
They both trail Green Bay Aaron Rodgers in ESPN’s QBR, with Mahomes second and Wilson fourth. Rodgers is the third betting favorite in the MVP race.
Football Outsiders rates Mahomes as the best quarterback in the league this season. And as Star columnist Sam Mellinger pointed out this week, many believe he’s playing the best football of his career. He has added 80.5 expected points, according to an ESPN metric, which leads the NFL and is 14 more than Wilson.
The MVP race, in other words, figures to go back-and-forth over the final seven weeks of the season.
The Super Bowl favorite does not.
The Chiefs have held steady atop that list since hoisting the last Lombardi Trophy in February, even as the Steelers remain undefeated this season. The Chiefs are still a 7-to-2 favorite to repeat as the NFL champions. The Steelers are second at 6-to-1, with the Saints (7/1), Buccaneers (9/1), Ravens (9/1), Packers (9/1) and Seahawks (10/1) close behind.
The oddsmakers, however, project the Chiefs will need to win a playoff game on the road in order to get back to the Super Bowl. The Steelers’ over/under for season wins has moved to 13 1/2, while the Chiefs’ number sits just shy of that at 13. That would project the Chiefs to finish 5-2 in their seven games after the bye, with dates against the Raiders, Buccaneers, Broncos, Dolphins, Saints, Falcons and Chargers remaining on the schedule.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid is listed fourth in the coach of the year running, per Oddschecker. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is the odds-on favorite, with Packers coach Matt LaFleur second and Dolphins coach Brian Flores third.
Former Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, now with Washington, is the favorite for the NFL comeback player of the year, ahead of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
A sneak peek of next week: The Chiefs are a 7-point favorite against the Raiders. They were favored by 12 1/2 points in the first meeting, though, a game they lost 40-32 in Week 5.
This story was originally published November 12, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "What the Vegas odds say about the Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances, Mahomes’ MVP chances."