With Patrick Mahomes, should Chiefs be more aggressive late in games?
The final kick sailed wide right from the moment it left Carolina kicker Joey Slye’s foot, though from 67 yards away, it was a long shot from the jump. But the point here is the Panthers did have a shot to win on the last snap Sunday, even as a double-digit underdog.
It never needed to come to that.
The Chiefs had an opportunity to seal a victory shortly beforehand. With 1:52 left in the game, they had their offense on the field, ball resting at the opposing 42-yard line, holding a two-point lead. That could’ve been enough. It should’ve been enough.
But here’s how that possession unfolded: A Le’Veon Bell run for no gain. Timeout, Panthers. A Patrick Mahomes run for minus-6 yards. Timeout, Panthers. A screen pass to Darrel Williams for 3 yards. Timeout, Panthers.
Chiefs punt. Carolina football, 1:26 on the clock, needing just three to win.
“We knew we were going to have our hands full,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “And I was just proud of the guys for bearing down.”
The most nervous moments of the 33-31 victory came with Mahomes standing on the sideline — because the Chiefs whiffed on their chance to win it with him on the field.
Did they offer him a real opportunity? In the final offensive drive, the Chiefs handed the ball off on first down. Then the run-pass option call on second. Then a screen pass on third. Mahomes threw the ball only once, and it was caught five yards behind the line of scrimmage. (To be fair, it’s hard to know the actual play call on second down, given how quickly Mahomes was tackled in the backfield, and three receivers went out for short routes, turning back as if they expected the possibility of a pass.)
Either way, the offensive sequence followed conventional wisdom — all three plays had a high percentage chance to keep the clock rolling. It followed historical patterns.
Patrick Mahomes bucks conventional wisdom. He is creating a new historical pattern.
Should the crunch time strategy reflect that?
“It’s not the old four corners stall here,” Reid said, referring to the basketball time-wasting method. “We’ve got to try to score, and it’s hard to do in this league.”
The situations basically ask the Chiefs to solve an equation. They can put the game in the hands of their running game, and if it doesn’t work, they have a fallback option of the defense preserving a lead against a team that has already exhausted its timeouts. Or they can put it in the hands of Mahomes, knowing the fallback option becomes a little more difficult if he fails.
But is Mahomes enough to single-handedly alter the equation — to make gaining first downs the primary objective and time-wasting a secondary thought? (Even with less than two minutes left on the clock.)
The crux of the question will remain the same, but other variables slightly change the math — things like the opposition and game flow. On Sunday, the latter tended to favor the idea of letting Mahomes work.
The Chiefs had scored touchdowns on each of their previous three drives. Up until that point, Mahomes had completed 13 of 18 throws for 176 yards and three touchdowns in the second half alone. The Chiefs had failed to score on only two offensive possessions all day — their last one in the first half, in which they simply ran out of time, and a missed field goal. They had yet to punt.
The offense, in other words, was rolling. And that’s with very little contribution from the running game — 12 carries, 30 yards. The passing plays kept the clock moving nearly two-thirds of time. The Chiefs averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt. That keyed their success. It usually does. And if that’s the manner in which you built the lead, is it not the manner in which to secure it?
Not usually. The Chiefs followed a plan Sunday that most other NFL teams would follow, too. The two-minute warning had passed, and so they ran.
The final result was decided on a kick.
The Chiefs won, by the way. The Panthers ran out of time because they had to eat their timeouts on the previous drive.
The process, therefore, worked. This time.
This story was originally published November 11, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "With Patrick Mahomes, should Chiefs be more aggressive late in games?."