Royals’ Matheny analyzing data when filling out lineup card for struggling KC offense
Royals manager Mike Matheny made it a point during his introductory news conference to insist he’d embraced analytics as part of his decision-making process. He didn’t want to seem like a dinosaur in a game that’s been heavily influenced by technology and data.
Matheny even said he took an online class dealing with sports analytics taught by Ari Kaplan. It all sounded good and seemed like the type of thing a manager in the current big data age of baseball should say upon taking the helm.
The more telling signs were always going to come in the form of decisions made and actions taken when meaningful games started. Matheny had hinted since March that he’d planned to use his bullpen in non-traditional ways, and that’s played out in the opening weeks of the season, with his use of “openers” and multiple relievers closing out tight games — Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland have each recorded saves.
Matheny’s approach to the lineup has also provided some insight into how his perspective has genuinely changed in Kansas City.
A prime example is the fact that last year’s American League home run champ, Jorge Soler, who set a franchise single-season record with 48 homers in 2019, is batting in the No. 2 spot in the order as opposed to cleanup or third.
On Tuesday, Matheny discussed his thinking behind batting Soler second.
“As a coaching staff, we’re probably guilty of overthinking sometimes how much that means, but then you get the data that supports it or the circumstances that support it — man, we could have him up right here,” Matheny said. “How can we get him up there as often as possible? We want Whit (Merrifield) up there as often as possible. Right now, we want Soler, we want Salvy up there. Those guys are really swinging the bat well. How do we get them as often as possible?
“That’s the answer. I think in the game we’ve had to move past those traditional thoughts where everyone of us who played the game wanted to bat third. Right? You see your name third and you feel like king of the world. The game has changed.”
Entering Wednesday night’s game against the Chicago Cubs at Kauffman Stadium, Soler had seen 31 of the team’s 49 plate appearances this season in the No. 2 hole in the lineup.
Soler’s batting position played into the club’s second run of the game in Tuesday night’s 5-4 loss to the Cubs. His sacrifice fly in the fifth inning scored Bubba Starling from third base.
In the seven previous games before Tuesday, the Royals had scored a total of 21 runs and batted .249 as a team.
Matheny’s team is missing right fielder Hunter Dozier, who has been on the injured list after a COVID-19 infection. Dozier’s absence plays into Matheny’s lineup decisions, as does Adalberto Mondesi’s early struggles — Mondesi batted .206 through the first eight games. Merrifield, meanwhile, has been on base at a .327 clip (second-best on the squad behind Soler).
It certainly didn’t escape Matheny’s notice when the Royals fell in a one-run game on July 31, and the final out of the night came with the No. 2 spot in the order at the plate. Soler, batting cleanup, didn’t get to the plate in that critical situation.
“That’s why you’re seeing teams take some of their most productive guys and making sure that they’re getting up there as much as possible, especially when you have an on-base guy like Whit,” Matheny said.
“Knowing what we’re learning in the game is that third spot is most likely, at least by the data, he’s going to have nobody on base with two outs more than anybody else in your lineup. That potential of the fourth spot leading off with nobody on is higher than usual just because of the first time around.”
There’s also a comfort factor at play. Matheny and his staff know certain players might feel like they have to adjust how they hit depending upon where they are in the batting order.
That’s not the case with Soler, nor is it Matheny’s intention.
“Every time he gets up to the plate, he’s in scoring position let alone if we’ve got anybody else on,” Matheny said. “I’m not having Soler walk up there to move guys over. I want him to move them all the way in.”
Old-school thinking on the No. 2 spot would favor more of a high-contact hitter — the type of player the Royals have referred to in the past as “action players” — who excel at moving runners, being able to bunt if needed or hitting behind the runner.
While managing the St. Louis Cardinals, Matheny didn’t bat his premier power hitters in the second spot with any regularity. The majority of those at-bats went to Tommy Pham (2017), Aledmys Díaz (2016), Matt Carpenter (2015), Kolten Wong (2014), Carlos Beltran (2013) and Carlos Beltran/Jon Jay (2012).
In recent years, baseball has moved away from that way of thinking.
The Cubs bat first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who averaged 29 home runs per season from 2013-19, in the No. 2 spot. The New York Yankees use Aaron Judge, who has a 52-homer season on his resume, as their No. 2. The Angels have batted Mike Trout, widely viewed as the best player in the game, in the No. 2 spot.
“Whether it’s Judge or (Giancarolo) Stanton or it’s Trout, you’re seeing that some of the best hitters in the game are being viewed differently,” Matheny said. “So, absolutely, my thought has changed, but I still go through the mental gymnastics every day.
“Every day when we look at: Who do we have? What are the strong suits? Where are they right now? How can we use the spots in the lineup?”
This story was originally published August 5, 2020 at 3:32 PM with the headline "Royals’ Matheny analyzing data when filling out lineup card for struggling KC offense."
