The Royals, after a 3-9 start, are still not out of the playoff picture. Here’s why
It’s safe to say — results-wise — this season couldn’t have started much worse for the Royals.
Kansas City is 3-9, has lost five in a row and also has the worst record in the American League all to itself.
Even with all that, I’m here to tell you that the Royals probably have much better playoff odds than you’d expect ... thanks mostly to a changed reality with baseball this season.
First, the numbers. Projections at FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight both basically agree: Each has the Royals at 6% to make the postseason in 2020.
While that’s not great, it’s also not nothing. The Royals, for instance, had a 3.2% chance to win starting the top of the eighth down 7-2 to Houston in Game 4 of the 2015 ALDS before rallying for the victory. KC also had a 10.5% chance of making the playoffs in late July 2014 in a season it later advanced to Game 7 of the World Series.
Yes, both of those happening were improbable events. But they also weren’t impossible, which means it’s still too soon to completely give up on dreams of Royals playoff baseball this season.
The main reason these hopes still exist is because of a change in MLB rules.
The league expanded its playoffs in this wacky season, extending it so that eight of 15 teams in each league are eligible. The selection process also is important, as all the first- and second-place finishers in each division are automatically in, followed by the selection of two Wild Card teams with the remaining best records.
The early part to this season, then, has gone well for AL playoff longshots like the Royals. Because favorites like the Yankees (8-1) and Twins (9-2) are off to better-than-expected starts, the distribution of wins has made it so even the worst of teams is likely to have a chance to compete for that final Wild Card spot.
Let’s use FanGraphs’ numbers for now to examine this deeper. Let’s assume the Yankees (99% playoff odds), Twins (98%), Astros (95%), A’s (91%), Rays (85%), White Sox (85%) and Indians (83%) continue as expected and are able to secure seven of the eight positions available.
That would mean one of these seven teams will still be making the postseason as the eighth Wild Card.
| Current record | FG Projected Record | FG Playoff Odds% | |
| Orioles | 5-4 | 24-36 | 6.9% |
| Tigers | 5-5 | 26-34 | 16.9% |
| Blue Jays | 3-5 | 27-33 | 30% |
| Rangers | 3-6 | 26-34 | 18.4% |
| Mariners | 4-8 | 23-37 | 4.6% |
| Red Sox | 3-8 | 27-33 | 32.4% |
| Royals | 3-9 | 24-36 | 6.2% |
The Orioles and Tigers also have helped keep the Royals’ chances afloat. Neither is expected to keep up their current pace, so with a greater sample, it would reason that both would be easier to catch than if, say, the Red Sox were .500 or better at this point.
Notice also that if things just went as projected, the Royals would only end up three games out of the final Wild Card. One of the teams above could emerge above that, but the point remains that getting to 27 or 28 wins — in this environment and with this particular league situation — should be enough to give an AL team a puncher’s chance.
It’s also worth pointing out here that the Royals are likely to have better days ahead. The pitching staff is more healthy now, especially with Brad Keller returning to the rotation Thursday.
There also are some early trends that are unlikely to continue.
For example, the Royals — known in 2014 and 2015 for their reputation of clutch hitting — have had 36 plate appearances this season in what FanGraphs labels as “high leverage” situations. In those spots, KC is hitting 126% worse than league average, with a .114 on-base percentage and .156 slugging percentage.
This sort of horrible timing shouldn’t be sustainable. It’s also part of the reason why FanGraphs’ BaseRuns measure — a tool used to estimate runs scored and allowed based on underlying numbers — has the Royals’ estimated record at 5-7 instead of the current 3-9.
The Royals have no doubt dug themselves a hole. And perhaps placing 1-in-16 hopes on finishing eighth out of 15 teams isn’t something that should necessarily get fans fired up.
That doesn’t change the reality, though. The Royals are a flawed team among many of them in the bottom half of the American League.
Which means their postseason possibilities still have a pulse.
This story was originally published August 5, 2020 at 10:39 AM with the headline "The Royals, after a 3-9 start, are still not out of the playoff picture. Here’s why."
