Gravity and energy: exploring two reasons why WSU’s offense has hit a rough patch
On the first play of the game Saturday, Wichita State committed a turnover that led directly to a lay-up on the other end for Connecticut.
The “atomic bomb,” as it’s known in the program, foretold the Shockers’ offensive struggles for the next 40 minutes of what became an 80-60 loss to Connecticut at Gampel Pavilion. It’s the longest WSU has been without a road win in 18 years, as WSU fell to 0-6 on the road with the losses coming by an average of 16.8 points.
In its two road games last week, WSU shot 36.9 percent (31 of 84) on two-pointers and 17.6 percent (6 of 34) on three-pointers. For reference, those marks would rank 352nd and 353rd in the country out of 353 teams for the season.
After reviewing each shot on film, here are four statistics that stood out after Saturday’s game:
▪ WSU had nine shots blocked and eight that never hit the rim. That’s a total of 17 shots that never had a chance of going in. Subtract all 17 shots and WSU still only shot 45.8 percent from the field, slightly above the national average.
▪ The Shockers finished with seven assists, second-fewest on the season. What’s even more troubling is WSU only generated 22 would-be assists on 65 shot attempts, meaning two-thirds of the offense was coming on isolation plays.
▪ WSU made fewer than half of its shots (17 of 35) at the rim, well below its season average of 61.7 percent, per Hoop-Math.com. For reference, 60 percent is the national average.
▪ The Shockers missed 13 of 14 two-point jumpers. Two-point jumpers generate more than a quarter of WSU’s offense on the season, per Hoop-Math, and WSU is making just 30.3 percent of them, the 336th-best rate in the country. Combine that with WSU’s 4-of-16 three-point performance and the Shockers made 16.7 percent (5 of 30) of their jumpers.
Here are three reasons why WSU’s offense is struggling at the moment:
Little gravity
What is gravity in the basketball sense? It’s the tendency of defenders to be pulled to certain parts of the floor.
Offensive players gain gravity when they are three-point threats. Defenders can’t stray from the perimeter to provide help defense on drives because of the gravitational pull of shooters. If a player isn’t an outside threat and doesn’t have gravity, then it’s easier for defenders to offer help.
Right now, outside of Markis McDuffie, no one on WSU has a gravitational pull on defenses. Here are the three-point shooting numbers for WSU’s rotation of five guards: Samajae Haynes-Jones (31.6), Dexter Dennis (30.8), Erik Stevenson (25.6), Jamarius Burton (23.1), Ricky Torres (6.7).
The unit is shooting a combined 26.7 percent beyond the arc. That means defenses have no problem coming off any of those shooters to play help defense because the odds are they won’t make them pay.
UConn was so unconcerned by WSU’s guards standing on the three-point line it didn’t hesitate to leave them completely to stand with two feet in the paint. That gave WSU’s offense even less space to operate with and clogged driving lanes.
On one play early in the game, Burton passed to McDuffie on the wing and cut through to the weak-side corner. Only his defender didn’t follow him; instead setting up camp right in the restricted area underneath the basket. When McDuffie drove past his defender, Burton’s defender met him in the lane to stave off the attack and force a kick-out.
“We have a very young and inexperienced team that struggles to score,” Marshall said. “(UConn) made (McDuffie’s) life miserable. That’s just the way it’s going to be until we get other guys that can score.”
While the lack of shooting affects McDuffie the most, it does have an impact on the rest of the offense.
On another play early in the first half, WSU center Jaime Echenique caught the ball on the left block and sized up his defender with his back to the basket. Usually Echenique would like to set his defender up with a few dribbles to his left, so he can swing back and finish with a right hook.
But Echenique couldn’t even dribble because Burton was in the left corner with no gravitational pull. As a result, his defender had turned his head, left him alone in the corner and double-teamed Echenique on the block.
Echenique kicked to the corner and Burton turned down an open corner three to attack the rim, where his shot was swatted away.
Defenses are squeezing down to shrink the court on WSU, an affliction that will likely follow the Shockers until they can make opponents pay for leaving their guards open on the perimeter.
Little energy
Coaches are fond of saying the ball finds energy: If you screen, move and cut with purpose, then the ball tends to find you.
WSU has been up-and-down this season creating this kind of energy on offense, but the two most recent games have been about the worst it’s been all season. Too many possessions have been wasted with forced, contested jumpers to beat the shot clock because of lack of ball and player movement.
“It was just bad movement all the way around,” Burton said after the UConn game. “We need to get the ball moving a little bit more and trust one another. I don’t know why it’s not translating. The only thing I can tell you is we’ve got to keep working and hopefully it will translate sooner rather than later.”
A good example of how WSU’s offense breaks down after its first or second option doesn’t work came on one of WSU’s first possessions of the second half.
Haynes-Jones fed the ball to McDuffie on the left elbow, then was the first option darting around a back screen from Asbjorn Midtgaard. UConn’s defense identified the cut and sagged in the lane to take away WSU’s first choice.
Haynes-Jones then set a back screen to try to free Burton underneath the basket. Instead, Haynes-Jones falls down setting the screen and WSU’s first two options are blown. This is when WSU’s offense has been at its worst: late in the shot clock.
Part of those struggles have to do with poor spacing, which allows defenses to help off more than they should be able to. Per StatHouse Analytics, WSU is scoring at just 0.60 points per possession in the final five seconds of the shot clock, the worst mark in the American Athletic Conference.
Back to this particular possession, the play broke down and WSU failed to execute a single dangerous action in the final 15 seconds. The possession ended with no dribbles or passes inside the arc and Burton heaving a contested three at the end of the shot clock that missed.
“We didn’t expect it to be this hard,” McDuffie said. “We’ve got to keep going, there’s not much else we can say. Keep going, keep fighting. These guys hate this. I know they don’t like losing, but they have to learn how to win the right way. You learn how to win the right way, good things are going to happen. If we keep hustling, keep playing hard, we’re going to get a chance to win some games.”
Little finishing
Marshall actually predicted this before the season started. He was frustrated by his team’s inability to knock down open shots in fall practices and that inability has carried over to the season.
WSU is statistically one of the worst-shooting teams in the country and the Shockers don’t do themselves any favors on the open shots they do create.
While WSU’s open misses are by no means limited to jump shots, Synergy has a good stat that puts in perspective just how much WSU has struggled to capitalize on open attempts this season. Per Synergy, WSU is shooting 28.1 percent on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, ranked 350th of 353 teams in the country.
WSU had its share of open looks against Connecticut, but could not convert. In fact, WSU air-balled three of its first seven shots. The Shockers also made fewer than half of their shots at the rim, which makes life even harder on an offense that needs to take advantage of every good look it produces.
Reason for hope
WSU has played the 10th-most difficult schedule in the country, according to the NCAA’s NET. That hasn’t been a good mix for one of the most inexperienced teams in the country.
No team in the American has played more Quadrant 1 and 2 games this season than WSU (13) and only Houston (9) and Temple (5) have more than WSU’s three wins against the top two quadrants.
KenPom gives WSU at least a 47 percent chance to win eight of the final 11 games on the schedule. The Shockers get a lot of home games and play the two worst teams in the conference on the road.
If WSU can maintain its team morale after a rocky 1-6 start to conference play, then it has a chance to make a run in February and March. The Shockers have played their best on offense when they are fully utilizing their post players. They had stretches of this against UConn, but nothing sustained.
Another bright spot emerging from the game was Burton, who scored a career-high 16 points and looked good attacking UConn’s guards and using his bigger frame to bully his way to the rim. He even looked smooth pulling up behind a screen and drilling a three-pointer, just his third of the season.
This story was originally published January 27, 2019 at 4:46 AM.
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