College football odds, expert picks for Kansas, Missouri, Big 12 and more in Week 11
We are running out of opportunities to bet on college football, so let’s make this weekend count.
Kansas State doesn’t play this week, but Kansas and Missouri are both in action.
Let’s see if we can keep finding winners.
Iowa State (-3) at Kansas
This is Lance Leipold’s last stand.
Kansas has played like a top 25 team in the first three quarters of every game this season. But no team in the country has been worse at closing out games. For that reason, the Jayhawks are 2-6.
It is still possible for KU to reach a bowl game, but it has to win its four remaining games to reach the postseason. The journey starts on Saturday against Iowa State.
Kansas should be able to move the ball on the ground against an Iowa State team that is allowing 4.9 yards per rush. However, the Cyclones should have an advantage through the air. Rocco Becht is capable of passing for big yardage on every play.
It seems like Kansas is catching Iowa State at a good time. The Jayhawks are coming off a bye and the Cyclones are fresh off their first loss of the season.
KU played well after its first idle week of the season, as it demolished Houston the following Saturday and then pushed Kansas State until the end in a 29-27 loss.
It’s tempting to take the Jayhawks with the points, knowing that this will probably be a close game. Then again, can we really trust KU in the fourth quarter?
Iowa State could have a fan advantage at Arrowhead Stadium, which might give the Cyclones an unexpected edge.
Oklahoma (-3) at Missouri
The betting line has moved like crazy ahead of this game.
Missouri opened as a four-point favorite. Now the Tigers are three-point underdogs.
You don’t see a line shift that drastically too often. Bettors clearly have more confidence in Oklahoma than Missouri after the Tigers lost their last game at Alabama without Brady Cook playing for much of the game.
But the Sooners haven’t looked great lately, either. The over/under in this game is set at 42 points. Maybe the under is the way to go with a pair of struggling offenses.
My favorite bets
Oklahoma State (+10.5) at TCU: Let’s start things off with a different kind of wager. I don’t trust TCU to protect a double-digit lead. Nor do I trust the Cowboys to give maximum effort as their season continues to spiral down the drain. But I am confident that TCU quarterback Josh Hoover will throw for lots of yards against the 15th worst pass defense in the Big 12. Hoover has cleared 333 yards in six games this season. He should be able to do it again against Oklahoma State. Pick: Josh Hoover over 300 passing yards.
Michigan (+13.5) at Indiana: I regrettably haven’t backed the Hoosiers as often as I should have this season. Indiana is an astounding 8-1 against the spread. Michigan doesn’t have enough firepower to keep up with Kurtis Rourke and an offense that has scored at least 31 points in every game this season. Pick: Indiana.
Colorado (-3.5) at Texas Tech: You can’t trust the Red Raiders to play two good games in a row. They are the ultimate Jekyll & Hyde team. One week, they will allow 59 points against Baylor. Another week, they will go on the road and beat Iowa State. I am expecting a letdown on Saturday against a Colorado team that is coming off a bye and has Travis Hunter healthy. Pick: Colorado.
Maryland (+25) at Oregon: Nobody is better at winning with style points than the Ducks. They have won (and covered) each of their past three games as huge favorites. I expect them to keep the foot on the gas at home against Maryland. Pick: Oregon.
Fresno State (-10.5) at Air Force: Backing service academies turned out to be a bad idea last week. So let’s fade one now. Air Force is one of the worst teams in the country and only covered last week because of its familiarity with Army. It will benefit from no such advantage this weekend. Pick: Fresno State.
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 31-19 (+10.3 units)
Upset pick of the week
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+150): The Commodores are 4-2 as underdogs this season. That record is straight up, not against the spread. The two losses both came by a field goal against Missouri and Texas. I think Vanderbilt can pull off another upset against a South Carolina team that is coming off a huge win against Texas A&M. Pick: Vanderbilt.
Season: 3-7 (-1.9 units)
Other lines worth considering
Florida (+21.5) at Texas: This feels like too many points for a SEC game, even though there is some quarterback uncertainty with the Gators. Lean: Florida.
Western Kentucky (-18) at New Mexico State: The best team in Conference USA should be able to win by three touchdowns or more against one of the worst teams in CUSA. Lean: Western Kentucky.
Rice (+9) at Memphis: Rice has quietly covered three straight games and the Owls appear motivated to play for interim coach Pete Alamar, while Memphis hasn’t covered this number in a game since early October. Lean: Rice.
Miami (-10.5) at Georgia Tech: The Hurricanes might have too much offense for Georgia Tech to keep this game close. Lean: Miami.
West Virginia (+4.5) at Cincinnati: The Bearcats should be able to take advantage of the worst pass defense in the Big 12 and win by at least a touchdown at home. Lean: Cincinnati.