Quick Scout: Why KU Jayhawks basketball’s next opponent remains a bit of a mystery
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: Stony Brook at No. 3 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 0-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 204
Point spread: Kansas by 25 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Veterans: Stony Brook ranks 59th in KenPom’s experience measure, while boasting one of only 17 rosters nationally that has an average age above 21 years old.
• Isolation scoring: It’s a small sample, but the Seawolves posted an impressive 1.42 points per possession in their opening game against George Mason in isolation settings; in addition, they had just two assists on their 22 field goals.
• Extra chances: Stony Brook has been an above-average rebounding team under coach Geno Ford each of the last two seasons, with that characteristic spanning back to the coach’s last two seasons with Bradley as well.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Size: Much like Tarleton, Stony Brook has chosen to play tiny, with no starter above 6 foot 6.
• Interior shooting: The Seawolves ranked 312th and 264th in two-point shooting the last two seasons and since then only decreased its height from last year’s roster.
• Transition defense? Again, small sample, but Stony Brook had problems getting back on defense in its season opener — an issue George Mason fully exploited.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot guard Jahlil Jenkins (No. 1)
Plus: Scored 1,698 points for Fairleigh Dickinson the last four seasons — most of any player in conference over that time
Plus: 36% career three-point shooter
Plus: Gets fouled decent amount and has excellent accuracy from the line
Plus: Has above-average efficiency in isolation settings (and loves to shoot iso threes)
Plus: Dangerous shooter off dribble
Minus: Poor finisher at rim who is easily affected by length
Minus: Has tendency to force up too many twos considering his lack of success there
PREDICTION
Stony Brook is a hard team to figure out at this point in the season.
The Seawolves have only had one game, and they’re also playing a different style compared to a season ago. Then, 6-foot-9 Mouhamadou Gueye — he transferred to Pittsburgh — was the team’s defensive anchor inside, serving as one of the nation’s best rim-protectors while providing the team an identity.
This year, though, Ford has replaced Gueye’s spot with a guard, giving his team a new look that seeks to attack one-on-one offensively while also conceding a bit more on the other end.
Still, Stony Brook was picked to win the America East and has plenty of returners, so it’s not like this is a team in the midst of a huge transition roster-wise.
For KU, it’s probably fortunate to play Stony Brook right after Tarleton, considering the comparable lineups. Both teams have the ability to challenge KU’s big men defensively, while also looking to make it tough on KU’s help defenders by spreading things out in hopes of making this a one-on-one affair.
I still don’t see much reason to not like KU big in this spot. The Jayhawks played better than the score against Tarleton indicated — the Texans shot above their heads a bit — and also have enough combo guards to effectively size down to Stony Brook (with better athletes) if that’s the way KU coach Bill Self wants to play.
Add in that Stony Brook appears that it could have some transition defense and rim-protection concerns, and I could see the Jayhawks opening this one up in a hurry, especially with the game being at Allen Fieldhouse.
I’ll take KU in a rout here.
Kansas 90, Stony Brook 58
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
It’d be silly to not put Ochai Agbaji in this spot given how similar this matchup is to KU’s previous game. In that one, Agbaji scored 25 points on 11-for-16 shooting, which included making 8 of 9 from two-point range. Self also has started to cater parts of his playbook to get Agbaji extra looks, and beyond that, Stony Brook at the least seems on shaky ground when it comes to rim protection, transition defense and allowing a high volume of threes. Agbaji thrives on the opposite end of each of those, which means he has a great chance to lead KU in scoring once again.
Last game prediction: Kansas 84, Tarleton 54 (Actual: KU 88-62) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 0-2
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 130-107-3 (55%)
This story was originally published November 18, 2021 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Quick Scout: Why KU Jayhawks basketball’s next opponent remains a bit of a mystery."
