KU Jayhawks Q&A: Odds to catch Kentucky? Plus NCAA update and bench player thoughts
We’re back for another Kansas Jayhawks Q&A.
Thanks for the Twitter questions, and a reminder that with our latest deal, you can get all our Star sports stories at 99 cents a month over the next three months.
This seems to be a big topic of discussion following Kentucky’s 1-6 start, but the odds of it happening don’t appear to be that great.
Making up 10 more wins is a lot, and not only that, Kentucky has the benefit of playing conference games in a much easier league than KU does.
KenPom projects KU for 11 more regular-season victories and Kentucky for nine. That doesn’t include the conference tournaments (will they happen this year?) or any postseason after that, though that’s also complicated by the fact that the Wildcats could accept an invite to an NIT-type tournament if they miss out on the NCAAs (again, if those happen).
So while it’s at least possible the Jayhawks are able to bridge this 16-win gap in one season, the probabilities still appear firmly against them to do so. I’ll say there’s a 5% chance.
First off, I hope you read our story on KU’s original outlook to win the Big 12 before conference play began. In short ... the Jayhawks’ chances to even get a share this year are much lower than many fans might anticipate, simply based on the top-heavy nature of the conference.
Those numbers have improved some since KU’s 2-0 start. Bart Torvik’s numbers have KU winning a share of the league crown in 13% of his simulations now, with Baylor still remaining as the heavy favorite.
So the simple answer here would be the games where Baylor has the best chance of getting knocked off. Here are three matchups, then, to keep an eye on for Big 12 ramifications:
• Baylor at Texas Tech, Jan. 16
• Baylor at Texas, Feb. 2
• Baylor at West Virginia, Feb. 15
It’s also worth noting that if this thing does come down to KU and Baylor ... the two teams meet in Allen Fieldhouse for the regular-season finale on Feb. 27. That one could be a lot of fun if the conference has not been decided.
Yes, he did.
I tweeted out this graph a couple weeks ago basically to reiterate what David McCormack was doing in KU’s offense was unsustainable — and basically unprecedented. If players take on that big of an offensive role while remaining as inefficient as McCormack was through eight games ... something changes to correct that.
And to KU coach Bill Self’s credit, something did change. Both he and McCormack spoke before the West Virginia game about McCormack focusing less on scoring and more on doing the little things to help KU win. McCormack even specifically cited a conversation Self had with him.
Well ... it worked. McCormack’s usage percentage — the role he played in the offense — was lower than any other game this season. And because he wasn’t forcing as many attempts, his efficiency shot up, as he focused more on making the easy tries and then passing it out when he didn’t have a great look.
This is what KU needs out of McCormack now. Though there was a time in the preseason when Self envisioned that the big man could be KU’s leading scorer, things haven’t played out that way, and the bigger focus now should be for KU’s center — whoever it is — to fit in well with the Jayhawks’ core four: Marcus Garrett, Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson.
McCormack taking a lesser role offensively was a great sign Tuesday. Self typically does a great job of convincing players to fit into specific roles that are needed with his rosters, and for a game at least, McCormack took a mature step of helping out his teammates by attempting to do less offensively rather than more.
Brent is referring to North Carolina quarterback Jace Ruder, who is originally from Norton, Kansas, and recently announced he was transferring with a potential four years of eligibility remaining.
There are some obvious reasons to think the former Rivals four-star could see KU as a potential landing spot, but at this point, don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks aren’t the right fit.
The biggest reason for that seems to be the incumbent. Coach Les Miles and offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon appear intrigued by the potential of freshman Jalon Daniels — he only turned 18 last season — and especially so once he is able to get a full in-person spring practice in; remember, KU had last year’s spring drills canceled because of COVID-19.
One advantage for Ruder is that he’s a graduate transfer in May, meaning KU could potentially get creative with a scholarship for him while using one from next year’s class. Still, I’d consider this Daniels’ job to lose at this point, with KU potentially evaluating options late spring if Daniels doesn’t progress as coaches expect.
Blair Kerkhoff, Gary Bedore and I discussed KU’s NCAA case more extensively in a recent SportsBeat KC podcast episode, so I hope you check that out.
The short version of that talk: This new independent process seems to be taking more time than we might’ve thought previously, with KU athletic director Jeff Long saying COVID has moved back the timeline some as well.
In short, don’t expect a ruling on KU’s case until — at least — after this men’s basketball season. SI.com’s Pat Forde had some excellent reporting on this as well, estimating that KU’s case hearing seems most likely to take place this summer.
I still think Tyon Grant-Foster and Bryce Thompson will play significant roles.
With Grant-Foster, it seems to be about comfort. He’s trying to learn the offense and his role within it, but he has the potential to provide a huge boost of athleticism to a team that — for the most part — has played below the rim thus far.
Thompson just needs to continue to serve as a blend player. He has advanced defensive instincts for a freshman and seems to be picking up the offense fine, but he’s overall been an inefficient player while turning it over too often with a lack of attempts at the rim. He should still get plenty of playing time ahead.
Tristan Enaruna is the wild card. He has potential — there aren’t that many guys out there with 7-foot wingspans who can naturally switch onto guards — but Enaruna too often has earned his spot in Self’s doghouse with lackadaisical plays. One game, he’ll fall asleep and get beat backdoor twice defensively for easy baskets, while another, he won’t catch a pass properly with two hands before it trickles out of bounds.
Self seemed determined to let Enaruna play through mistakes in KU’s recent game against Omaha, but the fact of the matter is that the Jayhawks have other options that are better than him now. Enaruna will need to play with more urgency during his time in to push ahead of others in the rotation.
Brannen Greene is a great pick, but I’ve got another answer in mind: Mario Chalmers.
The reason is that Chalmers and Self actually discussed this exact topic at one of Chalmers’ recent golf charity outings in Lawrence. Chalmers jokingly said something about Self allowing guys like Devonté Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk to shoot so many threes, and Self laughed about it, admitting he was much more rigid offensively when Chalmers played.
Remember also ... Chalmers played with a shorter three-point line, and was a 42(!)% career three-point shooter. The 156 threes he took his final year, for reference, would have ranked fifth in attempts on KU’s 2018 Final Four roster.
So yeah ... I would’ve loved to have seen Chalmers’ numbers if the three had fully been freed.
Lawrence just added Torchy’s, and after one visit last week, I’ve already sold my brother on it.
For the newbies ... you have to get the queso, no matter what. It’s amazing.
Scott’s question is about tacos, though, so here was my order: The Trashy Trailer Park, along with queso and chips. Can’t go wrong with that.
This story was originally published December 28, 2020 at 9:43 AM with the headline "KU Jayhawks Q&A: Odds to catch Kentucky? Plus NCAA update and bench player thoughts."
