Why the Kansas Jayhawks’ hold-your-breath defensive style isn’t likely to change soon
The trend is undeniable now.
Kansas basketball opponents are clearly trying to attack what is believed to be a weakness for the Jayhawks: the team’s perimeter defense.
And they’re doing that now at a nearly unprecedented rate.
Through seven games, nearly half — 48 percent — of the field goals against KU’s defense have been threes. That’s the ninth-highest percentage nationally, and also the continuation of teams going three-crazy against the Jayhawks.
| % of KU opponent shots that are 3s | National rank | |
| 2015-16 | 33% | 81st |
| 2016-17 | 34% | 99th |
| 2017-18 | 39% | 235th |
| 2018-19 | 42% | 284th |
| 2019-20 | 48% | 345th |
Recent contests have been more extreme. BYU shot 33 threes and 21 twos against KU, while Dayton was at 33 threes and 29 twos.
KU coach Bill Self has certainly noticed. He mentioned on his radio show this week that one of his team’s main goals defensively moving forward should be to “make people play inside the arc.”
It makes statistical sense. KU’s defense has held teams to 44 percent shooting from two-point range, so funneling the action toward a rim protector like Udoka Azubuike would appear to be a formula for success.
The problem, though, is it’s not that easy. And for KU specifically, there’s not much reason to think the defense will change its approach to prevent these threes moving forward.
The reasoning is simple: Coaches have to make philosophical choices on who they want their teams to be and what they want to emphasize.
Bill Self’s philosophy
Self — during his hall of fame coaching career — has mostly stuck to a mantra that’s served him well: “If you’re good, you get easy baskets, and don’t give them up.” Translated to the defensive end, that has meant a focus on strong help to make sure teams don’t get uncontested shots at the rim.
To be clear: This is not a wrong answer or approach. It’s just historically how Self has been most comfortable teaching his teams.
That — combined with the three-point boom in the last few years — has resulted in a strange scenario for KU fans, who now must often hold their breath during opponent three-point attempts while waiting to see if a defensive possession is successful or not.
For Self, there’s good and bad to this strategy ... and one only has to look to last week’s games as examples. The Jayhawks played strong ball-screen defense against BYU, forced the team into many contested threes, and won handily 71-56 against a good opponent when the Cougars made just 9 of 33 from beyond the arc.
The next day showed the potential downside. Dayton used excellent passing to get open spot-up threes, made 16 out of 33, and pushed KU to overtime in the Jayhawks’ 90-84 victory that was saved by Self’s team playing efficient offense.
Self talked Thursday about potential ways his team could defend threes better. He said he’d like for his defenders to get higher up on the floor, which would lessen the distance of closeouts on shooters. He’d also like to see his guys force opponents beyond the arc to take dribbles while discouraging threes in general.
While executing those could help some, it’s likely not going to drastically change how other teams approach playing against KU.
What we know about three-point defense
There are many ways to view threes and how to defend them. Studies by Ken Pomeroy tell us two notable truths based on past data: 1. The best way to play three-point defense is to limit opponents’ attempts from the outside; 2. Defenses have little control over opponents’ three-point percentage, though challenging shots potentially could make a limited impact.
It’s these sort of analytical findings that have sent some defensive coaches to the opposite end of the defensive spectrum in regards to threes.
Take Luke Yaklich, the new associate head coach for Texas. In the last two seasons as defensive coordinator for Michigan, the Wolverines excelled at limiting opponents’ three-point tries, ranking sixth and third in the stat nationally while also finishing as a top-three defensive team (in adjusted efficiency) both seasons.
Yaklich spoke about three-point defense in a September podcast with Jordan Sperber, saying the key to taking away threes for Michigan was a constant emphasis by coaches to not overhelp defensively.
By staying home more often, Michigan’s defenders were sometimes put on islands while defending one-on-one. Many times, that led to easy baskets off drives. In other instances, opponents put down impressive dunks while not having to deal with extra rim protection.
The coaching staff’s message, Yaklich said, still remained the same: Those plays are only worth two points. Yaklich said then-coach John Beilein would even tell his guys, “They can win a highlight, but we’re going to win the game.”
The “prevent threes” style has worked for Yaklich (and even helped him earn a promotion), but it’s not the only way to play. Self has always been a coach who has valued help, even speaking again Thursday about how he believes one of the characteristics of a great defensive team is the ability for players to help the helper (and even help the helper’s helper).
The amount of defensive rotation needed for that has a consequence. It does a great job of restricting easy layups and dunks, but after a few passes for the other team, it also can allow a high number of spot-up threes — a shot that also tends to be efficient over time.
High-major coaches fall on all ends of this spectrum. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s staff preaches outside-shot prevention, while Virginia’s Tony Bennett and Texas Tech’s Chris Beard — the two coaches in last year’s national title game, it should be noted — both have defensive styles that tend to allow a high number of threes.
And this year’s top defense? That’s also been Virginia, which actually has allowed the highest percentage of three-point shots in the nation (52 percent).
KU’s path moving forward
Yaklich repeated an important point during his conversation with Sperber: “It’s what you teach and what you emphasize.”
For KU, that message from coaches this year seems to be the same as in the past: Eliminate the easiest shots at nearly all costs.
When you’re a basketball coach, you have to compromise on something. There are no perfect defenses, so the important thing is to communicate to players what’s important while staying consistent with your particular emphasis over time.
Self doesn’t seem to be wavering here. Sure it’d be nice if other teams took fewer threes against KU, but trying to force that potentially could hurt KU’s strong two-point defense or — worse — put Self in a position where he’s confusing his players in regards to what he values most.
It’s all a long way of saying this: Expect KU to win a lot of games where opponents miss their threes. Expect other squads to give the team an unexpected test when they’re hot from the outside.
In general, though, don’t expect KU to change its defensive identity midseason.
Even when a known side effect is shortness of breath.
This story was originally published December 6, 2019 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Why the Kansas Jayhawks’ hold-your-breath defensive style isn’t likely to change soon."
