Upset picks, title predictions and expert betting tips for the NCAA Tournament
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Favorites are likelier to cover; NIL era reduced upsets.
- Back underdogs USF, Hofstra, TCU, VCU and Texas A&M.
- Back heavy favorites for blowouts; bet Big 12 over 13.5 wins.
Winning your bracket pool is great.
Cashing bets during every round of the NCAA Tournament is even better.
With that in mind, here are some of my favorite wagers for the first round of March Madness, and beyond. Good luck to everyone as the games get underway.
First-round money line upsets
A few years ago, one of the best things a bettor could do during the first round of March Madness was to place one unit on the money line for every single underdog to pull off an upset. More often than that, you would come out ahead.
But that strategy has become a loser in recent NCAA Tournaments. Now, the smarter move is to bet on every favorite to cover the spread. The introduction of NIL, revenue sharing and unlimited transfers has made it harder than ever for mid-majors to go on Cinderalla runs in this event.
Still, there are a few underdogs I like in the opening round of this tournament.
My two favorite big underdogs ...
USF (+200) vs. Louisville: The Bulls ended the regular season on an impressive winning streak, and the Cardinals are one of the most inconsistent teams in the country. They will also be without star player Mikel Brown. I like No. 11 USF to pull off an upset against No. 6 Louisville.
Hofstra (+550) vs. Alabama: This is simply a fade of the Crimson Tide. They rely on outside shooting more than most teams. A cold game could doom them to an early loss. One of their best players was also arrested this week. Hofstra could have a chance.
My favorite small underdogs ...
TCU (+120) vs. Ohio State: The Horned Frogs were a hard team to predict this season. But they typically played their best in big games, as evidenced by their wins over Iowa State, Texas Tech, Florida and Wisconsin. I expect a strong effort from TCU in this tournament.
VCU +120 vs. North Carolina: The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the country, and the Tar Heels are not at full strength. This sets up as a classic upset from an 11 seed over a 6 seed.
Texas A&M +140 vs. St. Mary’s: I don’t trust the Gaels to win outside their own conference. Give me the SEC team at plus money.
Favorites worth backing
I am not expecting an abundance of upsets this year. Logically, that means I think there will be a decent number of blowout wins from favorites.
Here are some teams I expect to run up the score on mid-major opponents ...
Houston (-23.5) vs. Idaho: Teams from the Big Sky never seem to have much success in the NCAA Tournament. The conference hasn’t won a game in March Madness since 2006. I don’t think Idaho will be the team to end the streak. In fact, I don’t think the Vandals can stay within 30 against a long, athletic team like Houston. Give me the Cougars to win big. I also like Idaho to go under its team total of 56.5 points.
UCLA (-5.5) vs. UCF: It’s hard to find a NCAA Tournament team that is currently playing worse than the Knights. They have lost four of their final five games, and their lone win was a miracle comeback against Cincinnati at the Big 12 Tournament. UCLA was hot at the end of the season. These are two teams heading in opposite directions.
Kansas (-13.5) vs. Cal Baptist: Go back and watch how hard Cal Baptist players celebrated after Utah Valley gifted them a trip to the NCAA Tournament by screwing up a lob dunk on the final play of the WAC Tournament. They are just happy to be here. The Jayhawks should win easily.
Teams with value in the futures market
I also like these tournament props as long-term bets:
TCU to reach the Sweet 16 (+600) and to reach the Final Four (+13000): The Horned Frogs will have to beat Ohio State and then probably Duke to make this happen. Not to mention Kansas, St. John’s Michigan State or UConn, if they keep winning. But, as mentioned above, I do see value on TCU as a potential giant-killer.
Vanderbilt to reach the Sweet 16 (+150): The Commodores are a top 10 team nationally at Bart Torvik. I’m not sure why the selection committed gave them a No. 5 seed. But winning early games against McNeese State and Nebraska or Troy shouldn’t be hard for them.
Illinois to reach the Final Four (+500): The Fighting Illini have more than enough offensive firepower to go on a run over the next two weeks.
Kanas to win the national championship (+10000): Do I think the Jayhawks will cut down the nets in Indianapolis? No. But at 100-to-1 odds I am willing to bet some couch change on KU just in case Darryn Peterson has been saving his best stuff for March Madness.
Arizona to win the national championship (+400): The Wildcats are my pick to win it all.
A fun way to support (or fade) the Big 12
The over/under for conference wins from the Big 12 is 13.5. I like the over, because I think both Arizona and Iowa State will advance deep into the bracket. If that happens, the league will only need a few wins from its other teams to cash this bet.
I also like the Big 12 to lead all conferences in wins at +360. The Big Ten is the understandable favorite in that category, but I don’t think it’s a slum-dunk to pull it off.