Can you beat these NCAA Tournament picks? Follow along and fill out your bracket
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Picks favor Arizona to win national title after balanced offensive and defensive showings.
- Author backs mid-major upsets: Santa Clara, Hofstra and USF as targets.
- Illinois projected to reach Sweet 16, upset Houston, then win the South Region.
There are few greater thrills than nailing your NCAA Tournament bracket in March.
Three years ago, I correctly picked No. 4 seed Connecticut to beat No. 5 seed San Diego State in the national championship game. Not only did I laugh my way to the bank in 2023, as I won several bracket competitions and also cashed a 20-to-1 futures bet on UConn, but I’m still bragging about it today.
My predictive powers haven’t been quite so sharp since. I picked an abundance of upsets last year, and watched in horror as chalk dominated the bracket. All four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. Two of my four sons trounced me in our family bracket pool. I would have finished last if not for my youngest kids making their picks based purely on mascot names.
But that’s the beautiful thing about this time of year. Anything can happen.
With that in mind, I am sharing my initial March Madness picks with the world.
Want to copy my picks? Go ahead! Want to fade my selections? Be my guest. Think you can beat me? Let’s find out!
Here is some analysis to help explain my picks...
Santa Clara and Hofstra are my upset picks
After last season, I’m afraid to pick any double-digit seeds in this tournament. But I couldn’t resist on a few teams.
Santa Clara is my favorite mid-major. The No. 10 seed Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs against the No. 7 seed Kentucky Wildcats in the betting market, but college basketball statistician Bart Torvik has them as a small favorite.
Kentucky was the definition of a mediocre SEC team this season. Santa Clara has one of the top-15 offenses in the country. I can see the Broncos getting hot and sending the Wildcats home early. I expect Iowa State to crush either team in the Round of 32, so let’s take a chance on the underdog.
Elsewhere, I am willing to roll the dice on No. 13 seed Hofstra against No. 4 seed Alabama. The Crimson Tide are all gas and no brakes. If they have a bad game shooting, Hofstra is good enough to take advantage. It has held opponents to 32.3% shooting from 3-point range and 44.2% from 2-point range this season. That could make things difficult for Alabama.
They aren’t a traditional underdog, but I also like No. 10 seed Texas A&M to beat No. 7 seed St. Mary’s. Give me No. 11 seed USF to take down No. 6 seed Louisville, as well.
Illinois can make the Final Four as a No. 3 seed
The Fighting Illini got a fabulous draw in this tournament. Brad Underwood’s team will open against an Ivy League opponent and then take on North Carolina at less than full strength or VCU. Illinois seems like a lock for the Sweet 16.
I think it has enough offense to upset Houston in that round and then win the South Region.
After last year, I think picking a No. 3 seed to reach the Final Four qualifies as bold.
A Big 12 team will win it all
The real championship game may come in the Final Four when Arizona takes on Michigan in Indianapolis.
I think the winner of that contest will beat Duke in the national championship game.
My pick is Arizona. Perhaps I am a little biased after watching the Wildcats play in person a few times this season. But they seem like the most complete team in the land. They rank inside the top 10 nationally in both offense and defense. What I really like about Tommy Lloyd’s team is that it doesn’t rely on 3-pointers. Arizona has proven it can win games while making just two shots from downtown.
If I’m right and Arizona ends up beating Duke in the national championship game, that will give me something else to brag about three years from now.
Here’s a blank bracket so you can make your own picks ...
This story was originally published March 16, 2026 at 6:00 AM.