Five Big 12 preseason locks and the best bets across college football for Week 1
.jpg "Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Will Howard (18) drops back to pass during the first quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium on Oct. 29, 2022.")
We’re back.
After a solid debut season of placing wagers on college football, Best Bets is ready for an encore.
This was new to many of us last year when sports betting was legalized in Kansas, including me. But despite having little experience in the area, yours truly was lucky (and also skilled?) enough to post a 44-35-1 record against the spread while giving out picks every week. That 55% winning accuracy was good enough for a $100 bettor to profit approximately $550.
Here’s hoping we can do even better this year.
Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.
Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 1:
Big 12 Preseason Locks
Before we dig into all the Week 1 games, allow me to take a moment to recommend a few preseason bets that look like winners in Big 12 country.
Kansas State O/U 7.5 wins: Hammer the over! There is no such thing as a lock in sports betting. Unbelievable upsets happen every season. So forgive me for using the term here. But I will be very surprised if the Wildcats fail to go over their preseason victory total in 2023. I project them as favorites in 10 games. Even if they stumble a few times, it’s hard to see them dipping below 8-4. K-State returns its starting quarterback (Will Howard), offensive coordinator (Collin Klein), defensive coordinator (Joe Klanderman) and head coach (Chris Klieman) this season. That combo rarely disappoints.
Will Howard O/U 2,635.5 passing yards: Another K-State over. Howard averaged 233 passing yards while playing in just seven games last season. Stretch that out over a full 12-game schedule and you’re looking at 2,800 yards this season. The Wildcats have an offensive coordinator who likes to throw the ball and push the pace. As long as Howard stays healthy, he should flirt with 3,000 yards.
Cincinnati O/U 5.5 wins: Let’s go under for this one. I sat down and predicted every Big 12 game this season and only found two wins for the Bearcats. This could be a long year for them as they transition into a power conference.
Oklahoma State O/U 6.5 wins: The Cowboys looked downright bad at the end of last year, but this number is criminally low for a Mike Gundy team. Did you know Oklahoma State has won at least seven games in 17 consecutive seasons? A soft conference schedule also sets up well for rapid improvement.
Texas Tech to win the Big 12 (+1200): No team has appeared in back-to-back Big 12 championship games since Oklahoma stopped dominating the conference. If that trend continues, the Red Raiders will be an excellent candidate to reach Arlington, Texas, in December. They finished last season on a tear and return a lot of talent. At 12-to-1, they offer good value as a dark-horse contender.
Waiting game for KU, K-State and Mizzou
I usually try to give some type of advice on all three of our “local” teams. But they are all hosting games against FCS opponents this week, and we don’t have any betting lines yet for Missouri vs. South Dakota, Kansas vs. Missouri State or K-State vs. SEMO.
The closest thing I can offer is a score projection from ESPN statistical guru Bill Connelly.
He has Missouri winning by 35, KU winning by 20 and K-State winning by 28.
Best Bets
Let’s find some winners and get off to a hot start!
Arkansas State (+34.5) at Oklahoma: The Sooners were way down last season, but that didn’t stop them from running up the score in their nonconference games. They pounded UTEP 45-13 (and covered), then beat Kent State 33-3 (and missed a cover by three) and then destroyed Nebraska 49-14 (and covered easily). Here’s guessing Dillon Gabriel and Brent Venables have something to prove and put up another big number. Pick: Oklahoma.
Boise State (+14.5) at Washington: Don’t sleep on the Huskies. They may not get as much attention as USC, Oregon and Utah, but they could be the best team in the Pac-12 this season. Washington finished off last year with seven straight wins and four straight covers. I’m expecting more of the same with Michael Penix leading a high-powered offense against a Boise State team that is no longer a giant slayer. Pick: Washington.
Stanford (-3.5) at Hawaii: Earlier this month, Hawaii was catching nearly 10 points in this game. Then the Rainbow Warriors went on the road and lost to Vanderbilt 35-28. For some reason, this spread changed drastically. Look, I get that Hawaii covered as a 17-point underdog and gained more yards than Vandy. But it also trailed 35-14 in the fourth quarter. Let’s call off the parade. Now Hawaii has to travel all the way home from Nashville and get ready for a Friday game. Stanford is nothing special, but the Cardinal should be slightly improved with a new coaching staff and good enough to win by a touchdown or more. Pick: Stanford.
Nevada (+38) at USC: San Jose State scored 28 points against USC last weekend and gave the Trojans more problems than some expected. I seriously doubt Nevada is capable of doing the same. San Jose State is a decent Mountain West team that has a history of playing power conference teams tough on the road. Nevada is a terrible MWC team that has been known to struggle against FCS opponents. The USC defense will benefit from playing in Week 0 and shut down the visiting Wolf Pack. Lincoln Riley will keep his foot on the gas until USC scores 50. I feel good about backing the big favorite here. Pick: USC.
Massachusetts (+38.5) at Auburn: Now let’s go in the other direction. UMass scored 41 points (and won) in Week 0. If the Minutemen can muster anything more than 10 points in Week 1 I think they will stay within this number as Hugh Freeze makes his coaching debut at Auburn. For what it’s worth UMass covered as a big road underdog against Texas A&M last season, losing 20-3. Pick: UMass.
Washington State (-12.5) at Colorado State: When Jay Norvell first got started at Nevada, his teams went 3-9 in Year 1 and 8-5 in Year 2. A similar improvement could happen with the Rams this season. The offensive line is loaded with new transfers and quarterback Clay Millen is back after leading the FBS in completion percentage last year. I won’t be surprised if they beat the Cougars at home this week. I will definitely take the points. Pick: Colorado State.
Bowling Green (+9.5) at Liberty: Consider this my Sickos Pick of the Week. Jamey Chadwell should hit the ground running at Liberty after coming over from Coastal Carolina, especially against a visiting MAC opponent that lost seven games a year ago. Pick: Liberty.
Upset Pick of the Week
Colorado State (+350): It’s not all that often we get to see a team from the Mountain West host a team from the Pac-12. Colorado State fans will be ready to help their team on Saturday. Why not sprinkle a little cash on the money line here and really try to make a profit?
Other lines worth considering
Colorado (+20.5) at TCU: Deion Sanders can talk the talk. But are his Buffaloes ready to walk the walk? Lean: TCU.
West Virginia (+20.5) at Penn State: The Mountaineers like to the run the ball. They are also pretty good at running the ball. With that in mind, Penn State might have trouble winning this game by a huge number. Lean: WVU.
Fresno State (+3.5) at Purdue: The Bulldogs were a great team last season, but the vast majority of their offensive production is gone. Lean: Purdue.
North Carolina State (-14.5) at Connecticut: NC State won this matchup by 31 at home last season. I don’t see a change in venue making the rematch much closer. Lean: NC State.
South Florida (+11.5) at Western Kentucky: Austin Reed is back after throwing for 4,744 yards last season. That’s all I need to know. Lean: WKU.