Big 12 power rankings: Last call on Texas Tech as a preseason dark-horse contender
Is Texas back?
Many are asking the wrong question.
Even though Big 12 football fans love to ask that specific question about the Longhorns, especially when they are preseason conference favorites like they are this year, I think we should be asking about a few different teams right now.
What about Texas Tech? The Red Raiders may be poised to flirt with 10 wins for the first time since the Mike Leach era.
Can Kansas State defend its Big 12 championship? The Wildcats have a veteran team that could achieve staying power under Chris Klieman.
Will Oklahoma bounce back? The Sooners could certainly take advantage of an easy schedule.
Or the Longhorns could be the class of the league and win their first Big 12 championship since 2009.
No matter what happens, it should be fun to watch.
Unlike previous years, I am not voting in the Associated Press Top 25 this season, so I will rank Big 12 teams every week instead. Let’s handicap the preseason conference outlook on all 14 teams in the first edition of Big 12 power rankings.
Big 12 championship odds from BetMGM.
1. Texas Tech (+1000)
Even though a screen shot of these rankings could end up on Freezing Cold Takes in a few months, I have got my guns up heading into the 2023 season. Now that Oklahoma is no longer what it once was under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, a dark-horse team always has a legitimate shot at winning the Big 12 each year. No one pegged Kansas State or TCU as preseason favorites last season, but they played in the league championship game. Same for Baylor and Oklahoma State two years ago. Why can’t the Red Raiders follow in their footsteps?
Texas Tech finished off last season on an impressive four-game winning streak, including a 42-25 victory over Mississippi in the Texas Bowl. Joey McGuire has this team heading in the right direction. Tyler Shough is also back as the team’s starting quarterback. Did you know the Red Raiders are 8-0 when he both starts and finishes a game? If he can stay healthy, this is a team that could easily rise up the conference standings.
2. Texas (-110)
Incredible running back Bijan Robinson and his elite backup Roschon Johnson are both gone to the NFL, but the rest of the roster is stacked with talent. The Longhorns have one of the best offensive lines in the country. Their defense isn’t too bad, either. If they can get improved play from quarterback Quinn Ewers, this might finally be the year Texas is back. Having Xavier Worthy at receiver should help in that area.
The biggest concern here is coaching. Steve Sarkisian has never won more than nine games in a season as a head coach.
3. Kansas State (+500)
The defending Big 12 champs have to replace Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Deuce Vaughn, plus two other NFL Draft selections, this season. That won’t be easy. But the Wildcats are one of the few teams in the league that return their starting quarterback (Will Howard), offensive coordinator (Collin Klein), defensive coordinator (Joe Klanderman) and head coach (Chris Klieman).
If K-State can make it back to Arlington, Texas, it will take its chances against any inexperienced foe in the Big 12 championship game.
4. TCU (+1800)
Can Chandler Morris and a bunch of SEC transfers make up for the losses of Max Duggan, Quentin Johnston and Kendre Miller? Probably not. But the Horned Frogs should still be a dangerous team this season, even if they don’t have the roster to make it back to the national championship game.
5. Oklahoma (+375)
Brent Venables must have worn a good-luck charm around his neck all offseason, because Oklahoma won the schedule lottery on its way out of the Big 12. Not only do the Sooners get to avoid upset nemesis K-State, they will also dodge Texas Tech and Baylor. Three Big 12 newcomers are on the slate, along with Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia.
Somebody pull up the video of Kobe Bryant shaking his head in disgust and yelling “soft!”
With Dillon Gabriel at the controls, this team should bounce back from last year’s 6-7 record regardless of whether the team is any good or not.
6. Kansas (+3000)
The Jayhawks return more production than any other team in the Big 12 this season. That is a good thing on offense, especially with Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal back in the fold. It might not be a good thing on defense, as Kansas couldn’t stop anyone last season. But if the defense can improve then the Jayhawks have major wild-card appeal.
7. Baylor (+1800)
The Bears also ended last season with a thud, losing four straight to K-State, TCU, Texas and Air Force. It will be interesting to see how Dave Aranda responds. This team won the Big 12 two short years ago.
8. UCF (+3000)
Of all the newcomers in the Big 12, the Knights are best positioned to have a strong debut season. Gus Malzahn has won in a power conference before and John Rhys Plumlee is back for another year at quarterback. UCF has a high ceiling. At the very least, this is a bowl team.
9. Oklahoma State (+4000)
The Cowboys crashed and burned at the end of last season, finishing at 7-6 despite getting off to a 6-1 start. Injuries mounted and then players lined up to transfer during the offseason. It was a bad look for Mike Gundy. Or was it? Maybe this is his chance to reload with players who better suit him and his evolving system. Gundy has led the Cowboys to 17 straight bowl games. Doubt him at your own risk. With a manageable schedule, Oklahoma State could be much improved this season.
10. BYU (+10000)
Here’s a team that enters 2023 with momentum. The Cougars finished last season with consecutive wins over Boise State, Utah Tech, Stanford and SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Unfortunately, it will take more than positive vibes to win in the Big 12. After years of playing as an independent, how will BYU handle the week-in, week-out grind of a power conference?
11. Houston (+20000)
After years in the college football wilderness, Houston is back in a major conference. But it probably feels like the Cougars never left the Southwest Conference. They will only play two games outside of Texas this season, at K-State and at UCF. Dana Holgorsen has coached in the Big 12 before, but this roster seems a year or two away from really competing in this league.
12. West Virginia (+10000)
Earlier this summer, Neal Brown promised that the Mountaineers wouldn’t finish last this season. He is probably right about that. The media probably did pick West Virginia too low in their preseason poll. But not by much.
13. Iowa State (+8000)
I thought the Cyclones were poised to bounce back from a bunch of close losses last season, until they got caught up in a gambling scandal.
14. Cincinnati (+10000)
Moving from the AAC to the Big 12 won’t be easy an easy transition. The Bearcats seem poised to lose a lot of games this season.