A ‘Super El Niño’ could develop this summer. What that means for Wichita, Kansas

Forecasters have their eye on what could be a “super” El Niño in the coming months.

El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that, when strong enough, “can affect our weather significantly,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. An El Niño occurs on average every 2 to 7 years, when trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed east, toward the western U.S. coastline.

“The strength of an El Niño is determined by how far above normal sea surface temperatures peak,” Matthew Sittel, assistant state climatologist at Kansas State University, told The Wichita Eagle.

If the sea surface temperature averages rise by 1.5 to 2 degrees above normal, we’d be experiencing what is considered a strong El Niño, National Weather Service Wichita meteorologist Andy Kleinsasser said. If the average temperature rises higher than 2 degrees above normal, this would be a “very strong” El Niño, or what is unofficially known as a “super” El Niño.

How likely is a Super El Niño this year?

As of mid-May, there is an 82% chance an El Niño occurs before July, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.

There is about a 33% chance of a very strong — or super — El Niño, Sittel said.

“The uncertainty lies not in if an El Niño will form, but how strong it will ultimately be,” he added.

How could an El Niño affect Wichita, Kansas?

When an El Niño occurs, Kleinsasser said the state of Kansas often finds itself in the “battleground” between experiencing warmer and drier weather like the northern part of the country or cooler and wetter weather as in the southern states.

“Some El Niños, especially the stronger El Niños, we can more often than not get in on some of that cooler and wetter conditions, like hopefully this one coming up,” he said. “Whereas if it’s a weaker El Niño, it’s really anyone’s guess what’s going to win out ... so given that this is a strong El Niño, there’s a better chance that it’s going to exert its influence with cooler and wetter conditions in Kansas.”

Christopher Redmond, a meteorologist with the K-State Weather Data Library, also described Kansas as a “battleground” state, adding that this is especially true for Wichita and the central part of the state.

“Historically during the summer months, Pacific moisture is streamed into the southwestern US through hurricanes and tropical storms,” he said. “This moisture tends to push eastward into the High Plains and western Kansas, resulting in an increase of moisture and cool anomalies during the summer months. However, further east, high pressure tends to dominate, leading to warm and dry conditions more likely for eastern Kansas. This would again place the Wichita and central Kansas region in the ‘battleground’ of uncertain conditions.”

As the drought has already had significant negative impacts, he said it would take significant rains from an El Niño to bring the Wichita area to closer to normal rainfall this summer.

El Niño impacts on winter weather

It’s much more likely we’ll see El Niño impacts in the winter, he said. But even still, he said there’s no “slam dunk” on what weather conditions Kansans might experience.

On average, Sittel said that El Niño can be a good thing for Kansans.

“But keep in mind that not all events are the same,” he said, adding that there could still be cold spells or other conditions. “We’re talking in terms of average conditions; there will be varying weather during the winter as is always the case.”