Tornado season begins in Kansas. Predicting the severity is tricky, expert says
April marks the beginning of the most active time of year for tornadoes in Kansas. But as residents know, severe weather could happen anytime.
“Out of all the 50 states in this nation, Kansas ranks toward the top in … just the amount of severe weather that we get,” National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Kleinsasser recently told The Eagle.
On average, the state weathers 84 tornadoes per year, according to Kleinsasser. That average is based on NWS data that’s been collected since 1990. Data collected from 2003 to 2022 from the Weather Channel shows Kansas ranks second in the nation for the most tornadoes per year, falling only behind Texas.
While we’re just entering this year’s tornado season, which runs through June, that doesn’t mean this is the only time of year with a tornado risk.
“When we’re looking at tornadoes across Kansas, a tornado has been reported across Kansas every single month. We’ve had tornadoes in September and January. And while they’re rare, they do happen occasionally,” Kleinsasser said. “Severe weather season really never sleeps in Kansas.”
The majority of the tornadoes Kansas will see in a year happen in that three-month seasonal window, however.
“On average, 75% of our tornadoes across Kansas [happen] April through June. And really, the same holds true for your large hail and damaging windstorms, too,” Kleinsasser said.
But when it comes to what this year’s season may look like, Kleinsasser said predicting severe weather for a season is difficult.
“Our accuracy in predicting how active a tornado season is pretty low,” the meteorologist noted.
There is some evidence tornado alley, as it’s called, is shifting east, but for Kansas residents, the declines in incidents likely won’t be noticeable, one researcher told The Eagle in 2023.
What makes an active tornado season?
There are a number of factors needed for a tornado to form, Kleinsasser said.
First, you need moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Second, you need heat that mixes with that moisture, creating what Kleinsasser described as “energy instability.”
“That’s like the source of those thunderstorm updrafts, so you need that energy to build the thunderstorm in the form of heat and moisture,” Kleinsasser said.
Finally, you need strong winds in the atmosphere that shape the thunderstorm.
Tornadoes are measured on a scale called the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. EF-0 to EF-2 are considered the weaker, milder tornadoes, while the EF-3s to the strongest EF-5 tornadoes are the ones that cause the most damage and in some instances, fatalities.
“Thankfully, 95% of our tornadoes are EF-0s to EF-2s, so 95% of our tornadoes are on the weaker side,” Kleinsasser said. “However, of those 5% of those strong to violent tornadoes, 87% of all tornado fatalities across Kansas occurred from the 5%.”
It’s been almost three years since Andover was struck by an EF-3 tornado, which damaged or destroyed more than 200 homes in the Wichita suburb.
How to get and stay prepared for severe weather and tornadoes
Hard to predict or not, it’s safe to say the Wichita area will see a tornado watch or two before the season ends, so it’s best to stay prepared.
“Families and businesses need to have a plan in place in the event the severe weather strikes, especially families with young kids,” Kleinsasser said.
A tornado watch is typically issued when conditions are favorable for a tornado to form, which means people should be prepared to seek shelter if necessary. A tornado warning, on the other hand, means a tornado has been spotted in the area. If under a warning, it’s important to take action immediately.
The most critical part of a severe weather plan is to know where to go for shelter. In a home, one of the best places to shelter is in a basement. But if you don’t have one, the NWS website says to go to an inside room on the lowest floor with no windows. It’s also recommended to shelter under something sturdy, like a table.
It’s also important to have a way to receive severe weather warnings. Kleinsasser said because tornado sirens are built to be heard outdoors, it can be easy for people to miss them while they’re inside.
“Especially if a tornado occurs after dark or after you go to sleep [and] you have like a noise machine going on in your bedroom, you may not hear that tornado siren,” Kleinsasser said.
To ensure you’ll know of a warning, make sure wireless emergency alerts are turned on on your phone.
