Will Kansas see a white Christmas this year? Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts
Christmas is just a few weeks away, and we’ve entered an El Niño pattern, which could possibly bring colder weather with more snow than usual to Kansas.
But the weather pattern could last multiple years, and it doesn’t necessarily mean Wichita residents will see cold and snowy weather all winter.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for weather in Kansas this Christmas, along with a seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service.
Farmers’ Almanac prediction
The Farmers’ Almanac has released a Christmas forecast for 2023, including weather predictions for Dec. 24 to Dec. 27. Kansas is in the almanac’s Zone 4, along with Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana.
Here’s what the almanac predicts for Christmas weather in Zone 4: “Looking good for a White Christmas! Possible heavy snow in Colorado and over the Plains just in time to set the mood for the holiday.”
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended predictions since 1818, according to its website.
National Weather Service forecast for Christmas
As for the traditional weather outlook, the National Weather Service reports most of central Kansas is equally likely to see colder or warmer weather than usual from December to February.
A small slither of the northeastern region of the state has a 33% to 40% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures, while the southwest region has a 33% to 40% probability of near-normal temperatures, according to the NWS.
The vast majority of Kansas has a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal precipitation, the NWS reports, while a small area in the state’s northeastern region has equal chances of above- or below-normal rainfall.
Wichita has already seen snow this winter, breaking a decades-old snowfall record, and the area’s average first annual snowfall tends to happen around Dec. 3, NWS data shows.
Central Kansas has approximately an 11% to 25% historical probability of a white Christmas, according to weather service data from 1981 to 2010. The historical probability is 26% to 40% in northern Kansas, and a small portion of south-central Kansas has a 0% to 10% probability.
The NWS typically releases more detailed forecasts a week at a time.
