Will El Niño bring snowy, cold weather to Kansas this winter? What one forecaster says
A weather pattern developed over the summer could potentially bring a cooler winter with higher snowfall to Kansas.
Christian Williams, forecaster for the National Weather Service office in Wichita, said while it’s never certain what an El Niño climate system will bring, the winter weather tends to lean cooler.
“We don’t really like to use the word ‘expected,’” Williams said. “We just lean in that direction.”
While an El Niño also leans toward higher snowfall, precipitation during such years can vary.
“For the wintertime, we genuinely lean cooler than normal, and then precipitationwise, the signal is not super strong. Some areas can lean a little bit above normal, some places can lean a little bit below normal ... so it varies quite a bit,” Williams said.
Here’s what to know about the weather pattern and what to expect this winter in Kansas.
What is El Niño?
El Niño, which means “little boy” in Spanish, occurs when warm water gets pushed east toward the west coast of the Americas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says. The Pacific jet stream then moves south due to the waters becoming warmer.
This weather pattern can then lead to drier and warmer weather in the northern U.S. and Canada.
The current El Niño developed over the summer, so while weather in the Kansas area leans toward cooler temperatures under such a system, if the effects are seen, they most likely won’t be noticed until next summer, Williams said.
The strength of the pattern is at 1.1 degrees Celsius below normal, which is considered a “moderate” El Niño. The strength measurement is reported tri-monthly, and the latest one reports information from July, August and September.
“Anywhere between 0.5 and 1.0 is a weak El Niño, and then 1.1 to 1.5 is a moderate El Niño and .... anything higher is a strong El Niño,” Williams said.
On the other hand, the weather pattern La Niña happens when trade winds push warm water towards Asia, which creates colder water in the Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA. The effects of La Niña are usually opposite of El Niño.
Average winter weather in Wichita
The NWS keeps track of every month’s averages in the Wichita area, using reported data from 1991 to 2020. Here’s a look at the average temperatures and precipitation during the winter season.
December
Average maximum temperature: 45.8 degrees Fahrenheit
Average minimum temperature: 22.4 degrees
Average temperature: 35.6 degrees
Average precipitation: 1.22 inches
January
Average maximum temperature: 43.9 degrees
Average minimum temperature: 22.5 degrees
Average temperature: 33.2 degrees
Average precipitation: 0.85 inches
February
Average maximum temperature: 48.9 degrees
Average minimum temperature: 26.3 degrees
Average temperature: 37.6 degrees
Average precipitation: 1.20 inches
This story was originally published October 5, 2023 at 10:50 AM.
