El Niño is likely on its way. Here’s what it could mean for Kansas weather this summer
A weather pattern that’s expected to develop in the next month could lead to cooler summer temperatures in southern Kansas, according to one National Weather Service meteorologist.
The NWS reports a 90% chance of El Niño developing between May and June.
El Niño occurs when water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, near the equator, are warmer than average. When the water is cooler than normal, El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, occurs.
Here’s what to know about the climate pattern and what it could mean for Kansas weather this summer and fall.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño occurs when warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the Americas, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Pacific jet stream moves south of its normal position due to the warmer waters, which can actually cause drier and warmer weather in the northern U.S. and Canada.
The name El Niño means “little boy” in Spanish, and the climate pattern was first named in 1600s by South American fishermen.
La Niña, on the other hand, happens when stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia, creating colder-than-normal water in the Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA.
This phenomenon usually leads to flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada, along with droughts in the southern U.S. Winters are usually colder than normal in the north and warmer in the south.
La Niña translates to “little girl” in Spanish.
What does the coming El Niño mean for Kansas weather?
El Niño and La Niña affect weather worldwide, but the effects can be different depending on where you are. El Niño typically leads to cooler summers in Kansas, while La Niña leads to the opposite, according to NWS meteorologist Christian Williams.
The duration of the effects depends on how strong the El Niño is, Williams said, and we won’t know the strength of the coming system immediately.
“Some El Niños are very short, they may only last six to eight months and we may be only dealing with the impacts until the end of next summer, where some may last multiple years,” Williams said.
Areas that will feel the effects also depend on the strength of the El Niño.
“Sometimes that weather pattern can stay south of us and really only affect Texas or Oklahoma, but southern Kansas is kind of on that border,” Williams said.
If El Niño develops sooner, you can see cooler temperatures in July and August, but if the development is delayed, the pattern is more uncertain. Kansans also may not see the effects until next summer, depending on the climate pattern’s strength.
As for fall, an El Niño could lead to cooler and wetter weather, as well as the possibility of more severe weather.
The effects would be more prominent in south Kansas, while father north it would depend on how strong the El Niño proves to be. In northern Kansas, toward Nebraska, the weather could be warmer and drier.
El Niño aside, the NWS says Kansas has an equal chance of experiencing temperatures above or below normal this summer, while a small southern portion of the state has a 33% to 40% of seeing above-average temperatures.
