Severe storms Monday could drop heavy rain, large hail, tornadoes on parts of Kansas

Some areas of Kansas could experience severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night, with potential hazards including heavy rain, large hail and possible tornadoes.

National Weather Service forecasters predict western and central Kansas have the greatest risks of severe storms, according to hazardous weather outlooks from regional NWS offices.

NWS Wichita

“Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across western Kansas Monday afternoon and evening,” NWS Wichita meteorologists said in their outlook. “Some of this activity could impact portions of Barton, Russell, and Lincoln counties during the evening and overnight with strong wind gusts and brief heavy rain, although the best severe potential should remain across western Kansas.

“The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms remains in the forecast Tuesday through Thursday, mainly during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible as well. There remains some uncertainty, so check back for later forecast updates.”

The Wichita office covers much of central, south-central and southeast Kansas.

The city of Wichita is not expected to experience severe storms. The Wichita weather forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, mainly between 7 a.m. and 5 p.m. That is followed by a 20% chance of showers Monday night, mainly after 1 a.m. Wind gusts could blow as high as 28 mph.

Despite recent rainy weather, precipitation totals have been lower than normal in Wichita.

The month-to-date rainfall of 1.93 inches as of 5 p.m. Sunday is below the normal value of 3.77 inches for this time of May, according to NWS Wichita statistics. The year-to-date precipitation has been 10.78 inches, while the normal value is 11.22 inches.

NWS Dodge City

Southwest Kansas has a chance for severe weather Sunday evening. The Dodge City weather service office predicts the potential for hail the size of ping pong balls, 65 mph wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

Monday could also be dangerous.

“Severe Thunderstorms are likely to develop along a surface front producing 2 inch diameter hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes,” NWS Dodge City said in a hazardous weather outlook.

NWS Goodland

Northwest Kansas has a similar forecast.

“There are Slight and Marginal Risk areas for severe thunderstorms across much of the region Monday afternoon and evening,” the Goodland branch of the weather service said in its outlook. “Threats will include large hail, locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds and even a few isolated tornadoes.”

NWS Hastings

The weather service office in Hastings, Nebraska, covers parts of north-central Kansas.

Sunday night storms could continue through the early morning hours Monday.

“While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a few of these storms could have quarter sized hail and wind gusts to near 60 MPH, especially across areas along and west of Highway 281.”

That U.S. highway runs north through Russell, Osborne and Smith Center.

The affected area includes Natoma, which was hard-hit by Paradise Creek flooding last week. The mayor said about 120 of the 250 homes in down had moderate to severe damage and about 15 more are a total loss. About 22 businesses had water damage and one is possibly a total loss, he said.

Severe storms are possible again Monday afternoon and evening. Additional storms are possible later in the week, but it remains too early for detailed forecasts.

“If severe storms are realized, hail to the size of quarters and 60 MPH thunderstorm wind gusts will both be possible,” NWS Hastings said.

NWS Topeka

The Topeka office covers much of northeast Kansas. That region is not expected to experience much, if any, severe weather.

“A small chance for isolated afternoon thunderstorms remains in the forecast through Monday, including a low chance for a few stronger storms moving into north-central Kansas before weakening,” NWS Topeka said in its hazardous weather outlook.

This story was originally published May 23, 2021 at 6:07 PM.