Trump tariff fallout: These Kansas-produced goods could get hit by retaliatory tariffs
Update: President Donald Trump announced Thursday he would put a month-long exception in place for most goods coming from Mexico and some goods coming from Canada, as long as the imports comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade deal.
Tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico Tuesday could prove costly to Kansas farmers and aviation workers, one Kansas economics professor said.
President Donald Trump followed through on promises to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, in effect as of 12:01 a.m. Tuesday. Tariffs are taxes imposed on products imported from other countries, and businesses are widely expected to pass on those costs to consumers, driving up prices on everything from mechanical part to avocados.
The new tariffs on leading trade partners Canada and Mexico, in addition to the 20% tariff imposed on China, could lead to an additional $1,072 in taxes a year for the average U.S. household, nonprofit tax research center the Tax Foundation found.
Trump’s move has already led to the announcement of retaliatory tariffs, which could have major impacts to the U.S. economy.
“Everything that we ship is subject to potential tariffs,” Donna Ginther, economics professor at the University of Kansas, said Wednesday.
Canada’s prime minister announced plans to impose tariffs on more than $100 billion of American goods, while Mexico’s president said the country was also planning retaliatory tariffs to be announced Sunday, March 9.
According to the Kansas Department of Commerce, Mexico was the No. 1 country Kansas exported goods to in 2023. Canada was the second, and China the fourth. Forty-one percent of Kansas’ trade went to Canada and Mexico. If you add China into the mix, that’s 46% of the state’s trade.
“Exports are about 8% of the Kansas economy. So, our industries that export are exposed,” Ginther said.
In addition, Wichita leads the state in exports, especially when it comes to aircraft parts, Ginther pointed out.
“It’s really going to hit Wichita hard,” she said.
A study from LendingTree found Kansas is the 31st state most vulnerable to the tariffs. The most vulnerable is Montana, the study found.
What Kansas goods could be subject to retaliatory tariffs?
Kansas ships a lot of grain products and beef to Mexico, Ginther said, as well as machinery.
“It’s high tech manufacturing and agriculture that are going to really hit ... in exports,” Ginther said.
Aircraft parts will also most likely be affected. For example, because Bombardier is a Canadian company with headquarters based in Wichita, aircraft parts shipped back and forth could find themselves subject to the steep costs of tariffs.
“So if we’re sending parts back and forth, it’s going to increase the price of aircraft parts,” Ginther said.
Overall, Kansas’ top 10 exports in 2023 were, according to the Kansas Department of Commerce:
- Aircraft & parts
- Meat
- Industrial machinery
- Cereals
- Electric machinery
- Oil seeds
- Vehicles & parts
- Food industry residues & waste
- Optic & medical instruments
- Inorganic chemicals
As for imports that could see a price increase on the consumer end, Ginther said produce will, as well as vehicles.
“Mexico at this time of year sends us fruits and vegetables, [so] the price of produce is going to go way up,” Ginther said. “A lot of car parts cross the border, and so that’s going to increase the price of cars.
“If a car part is built in Windsor, Ontario, and shipped across to Detroit, there’s a tariff so that increases the price of cars,” she concluded.
Wednesday, Trump announced a tariff exemption for automakers that will last one month.
Will Trump’s tariffs cost Kansas jobs?
When it comes to Kansas workers, these tariffs could really affect farmers, Ginther said.
“Shutting off markets, which is what the tariff battles do for Kansas farmers ... those markets may not ever come back [and] it really hurts a farm economy,” Ginther said. “The farmers have to borrow money to plant crops ... if they can’t get paid for their crops, if they’re having difficulty selling their crops, this creates challenges for them.”
Wichita being the air capital of the world also begs the question: Will aviation jobs be lost?
The answer is simple: “If there is decreased demand for aircraft, then that will affect jobs,” Ginther said.
This story was originally published March 6, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
