Kansas vaccine rate shot up in March as threat of new COVID surge isn’t ‘scare tactic’
As vaccination rates doubled across Kansas in March, health officials say concerns over a potential fourth surge in the coronavirus pandemic are not “scare tactics.”
Cases, hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 mostly trended down over the past month, but the most recent numbers hint that April will bring an end to the good news.
Health officials have urged against loosening restrictions, such as mask mandates. They say community transmission is too high and vaccination rates are too low, pointing to spring surges elsewhere and the spread of coronavirus variants.
“The picture here looks a whole lot like every other surge we’ve seen,” said Dr. David Wild. “So I think the words of caution are very very fair. I know everyone is tired, I know many of us would like to get to a point where we’re not thinking there could be another round of serious impact to our communities.”
Wild, the vice president of performance improvement at The University of Kansas Health System, said the warnings “are not meant as scare tactics.”
COVID indicators
As of March 31, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment had recorded pandemic totals of 302,372 confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases, 9,728 hospitalizations, 2,671 ICU admissions and 4,913 deaths. The increases since March 1 were 8,070 new cases, 438 new hospitalizations, 150 new ICU admissions and 170 new deaths.
Comparatively, the month of February had 17,634 new cases, 801 new hospitalizations, 210 new ICU admissions and 934 new deaths.
In Sedgwick County, the KDHE reported totals at the end of March of 54,799 cases, 1,569 hospitalizations, 479 ICU admissions and 730 deaths.
The month increases were 1,120 new cases, 137 new hospitalizations, 61 new ICU admissions and 36 new deaths. Those are down from February’s 3,409 new cases, 201 new hospitalizations, 70 new ICU admissions and 157 new deaths.
Sedgwick County has about 17.7% of the state’s population. In March, the county had 13.9% of the state’s new cases, 31.3% of the new hospitalizations, 40.7% of the new ICU admissions and 21.2% of the new deaths.
Despite the month-over-month improvement in March, there are early signs that April may be worse.
The state’s seven-day average dropped from 366 new cases a day on March 1 to 212 on March 18, according to data from The New York Times. The rate of new cases has since stagnated. As of March 30, it was 216 new cases a day. The current rate is more than five times higher than it was at this time last year, when the state was on lockdown.
In Sedgwick County, March 1 had a seven-day average of 63 new cases a day. That dropped to 23 by March 22, but has risen to 31 as of March 30.
The positive test rate is also on the rise in Sedgwick County, hitting a four-week high. The local health department’s latest metrics report showed a 3.0% positive test rate for the week that ended March 27. The prior four weeks all had positivity rates ranging from 2.0% to 2.8%.
Trends and variants
“For the first time really in several weeks, we have seen a pretty sharp uptick in the national seven-day rolling average number of new cases and a continued increase in the number of states that are seeing an increase in their seven-day averages compared to the previous week,” Wild said.
The spikes that some states are experiencing have not materialized in Kansas so far.
Nationally, Kansas ranks relatively well on the major pandemic indicators compared to a few months ago. The White House’s most recent report had Kansas with the 12th-best case rate, 14th-best positive test rate, fifth-best hospitalization rate and 27th-best death rate. The rankings include the 50 states, plus Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C.
The report, released Tuesday with data as of March 26, was not all good news. It showed a 21% week-over-week increase in cases in Kansas. However, the statewide positive test rate dropped 0.4 percentage points while new hospitalizations dropped 14%.
The report classified community spread in Kansas as “substantial transmission.” Case and death rates were in the orange zone while test positivity and hospitalizations were in the green zone.
“We know that (some national) areas that are seeing a more rapid increase in new cases have a growing percentage, and in some cases a majority” of COVID tests from the United Kingdom variant, Wild said. “There’s also some growing concern, I wouldn’t say evidence yet, that there might be also an increased severity related to that strain.
“As far as what that means here, we know that our borders from a state perspective or as a county are really artificial when it comes to how we travel and how disease spreads. So we should be worried about the impact of any of the variants.”
Kansas has had 27 known cases of the UK variant, according to the CDC. The variant has been identified in 11 counties, spanning all regions of the state.
Wastewater testing in Kansas has shown increased evidence of coronavirus variants in the population, said Dr. Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention and control at The University of Kansas Health System.
“We know that you can get reinfected with this variant or any other variant if you’ve already had COVID. That is why behaviors ... (and) vaccination is going to be the way out of this,” Hawkinson said. “... The vaccines do offer protection against those variants.”
Some Kansans who contracted the coronavirus disease during the fall surge have been infected again.
“We have seen a number of patients in the past month or so who were positive in the fall, September or October, who are far more than their 90 days out who are positive and mildly symptomatic again now,” Wild said. “We have started to do some variant testing in that population to understand if that repeat infection is related to variants in our community.
“There’s something to do with repeat infection and potentially variants in that equation that we don’t quite understand yet.”
Mask policy
Hawkinson said there is “great concern” with the COVID trends, “especially with the variants and lifting of restrictions.”
Several Kansas counties, including Sedgwick County, have revoked mask mandates and other health orders in response to a change in state law designed to strip government officials of emergency management powers. The change makes it more difficult for counties to defend those orders in court, though city mask ordinances are not affected.
Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly plans to reissue a statewide mask order in April, but top Republicans in the Legislature have said they will try to block it.
Public health officials continue to warn against loosening restrictions, saying it is too early and the pandemic is not yet over.
Scott Pauly, a Hutchinson physician, told the Reno County Commission before it rescinded its mask mandate that “wearing a mask doesn’t hurt our economy like shutting things down.”
Dr. Lee Norman, the KDHE secretary, during a Tuesday media briefing with KU doctors, addressed the political disputes during the pandemic.
“This has not been easy sledding since May of 2020 with the attorney general and the Legislature progressively trying to, by statute, curtail what have been century-long public health successful practices by interfering with case investigation and contact tracing,” Norman said. “And then in this session, of course, taking away the authorities of the state health officials such as myself and the county health officials and leaving it to untrained medical people to make those decisions, I think is very short-sighted and ill advised.”
“I think the Legislature should stay involved and have conversations, but not do what it can do to derail long-standing, very successful public health interventions.”
Hawkinson said COVID-19 is a “behavioral disease” and that people need to continue wearing masks, social distancing and washing hands. After cold weather in February sent people inside, Wild said the impact of “the behavior changes called Spring Break will show up sometime in the next two weeks or three weeks.”
“We’re hopeful that regardless of what the policy decision is around mask mandates or other mitigation measures, that as the community thinks about what they can do that they continue to remember that we have some control in this, even if there’s not a public policy or a mask mandate requiring us to do those things that are important,” Wild said.
Vaccine data
Kansas more than doubled its total vaccinations during March, KDHE data show.
The state ended the month with totals of 1,664,180 doses distributed and 1,229,509 doses administered. There have been 801,925 vaccinated with a first dose and 427,584 people fully vaccinated.
From March 1 to March 31, Kansas had a 107% increase in doses distributed, a 110% increase in doses administered, a 104% increase in first doses administered and a 124% increase in full vaccinations.
The state went from 13.5% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose to 27.5%.
“If you remember a while back, we had problems with data reporting,” Norman said. “We’ve pretty well taken care of that, not 100%.”
Kansas has moved up in the CDC’s vaccination rankings. At the start of the month, Kansas had the fifth-worst rate of doses administered per capita. At the end of the month, Kansas was No. 35 of 50.
Meanwhile, Sedgwick County is at the bottom of statewide rankings.
As of the end of March, the CDC had Sedgwick County tied with Finney County for the worst percentage of the entire population that has been fully vaccinated, at 9.7%.
The 13.1% of adults that have been fully vaccinated in Sedgwick County ranks as the worst of the 105 Kansas counties. The 34.1% of the county’s senior citizens that have been fully vaccinated was third-worst.
County Manager Tom Stolz addressed the ranking during a Monday media briefing.
“Our numbers, I think we’re doing well here in Sedgwick County,” he said. “I don’t know that we’re in last place, and I honestly don’t care what place we are in.”
“I don’t know that we’re competing against 104 other counties,” Stolz said. “We are competing with ourselves though to try to do the best we can.”
Vaccine demographics
Statewide, 27.5% of people have gotten at least one shot. Senior citizens, who were prioritized in the earliest phases, have much higher vaccination rates.
The highest vaccination rate is in the 75-84 age group, where 78% of people has gotten at least one dose. The 65-74 age group has 71% of people vaccinated and the 85 and older age group has 68% of people vaccinated.
While younger people have lower vaccination rates, eligibility was opened this week to everyone who lives or works in Kansas and is at least 16 years old.
Some vaccine records are missing data on patient demographics, but the available information shows gaps by race, ethnicity and sex. Incomplete records mean the related vaccination rates are likely under-reported.
White Kansans have a higher per capita vaccination rate (22%) than Black (12%), Native American (7%), Asian (16%) and Pacific Islander (10%) races. Hispanic people have a lower vaccination rate (15%) than non-Hispanic people (23%).
Racial gaps in vaccinations are exhibited across all age groups, to varying degrees.
Ethnicity data shows the gap reverses among the elderly. In the 85 and older group, 95% of Hispanic people have been vaccinated, compared to 52% of non-Hispanic people.
By patient sex, 32% of women have been vaccinated, compared to 23% of men.