The Power of Oscar: Movie Maniac’s 2022 predictions

Better late than never, the Academy Awards will be held Sunday, March 27, finally, in an unusually elongated movie awards season. (They will be telecast at 7 p.m. central on ABC).

As usual, there are front-runners in some categories, but you never know. Just like in the movies, Oscar loves a surprise ending.

Here, then, are my predictions in major categories.

BEST PICTURE

• “Belfast”
• “CODA”
• “Don’t Look Up”
• “Drive My Car”
• “Dune”
• “King Richard”
• “Licorice Pizza”
• “Nightmare Alley”
• “The Power of the Dog”
• “West Side Story”

Oscar went back to an even 10 nominees this year (different from years past, where it could be as few as five nominees and up to 10).

“CODA,” about the hearing child of a deaf family who grapples with following her passion vs. responsibilities, has gained some steam as of late, including winning best ensemble cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (its version of best picture). But the film still kind of seems like a long shot for the biggest prize of the night (although underdogs have won in the past few years, such as “Moonlight” and “Parasite”).

Even thought it’s polarizing with audiences (I didn’t like it at first), “The Power of the Dog” has swept many of the precursor awards (it just won the BAFTA best picture prize). I think Jane Campion’s exploration of masculinity in the old west will win here, too. It’s a slow burn, but one that sticks with you. It’s definitely “artsy” but ambitious, anchored with mesmerizing performances.

Oscar prediction: “The Power of the Dog”

My vote: “West Side Story”

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
• Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
• Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick … Boom!”
• Will Smith, “King Richard”
• Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”

All are previous nominees, with Washington becoming the most nominated Black actor in Oscar history, with ten nominations and two wins (supporting actor for “Glory” and lead for “Training Day”). But he’s not getting any buzz to win again.

Neither is previous winner Bardem (supporting actor for “No Country for Old Men”), although he shined as Ricky Ricardo.

Cumberbatch was absolutely menacing as a scheming rancher in “Dog,” while Garfield shined as a music composer in “Boom!”

But this should be Smith’s year as father/coach to Venus and Serena Williams. He’s won nearly every precursor award and should finally take home an Oscar.

Oscar prediction: Smith

My vote: Garfield

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
• Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
• Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
• Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

Only Stewart is the first-time nominee for her role as the tragic Princess Diana. She’s somewhat of a surprise nominee and a long shot here.

Neither of previous winners Colman (lead actress for “The Favourite”) or Cruz (supporting for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”) are getting buzz to win, despite deserved nominations.

So that comes down to previous winner Kidman (lead actress for “The Hours”) and previous nominee Chastain (supporting for “The Help” and lead for “Zero Dark Thirty”). Kidman absolutely shined as Lucille Ball, and seemed to be an early favorite to win her second Oscar.

But Chastain has gained steam for her splashy role in “Tammy Faye,” winning the Critics’ Choice award, most recently. It’s a tough call, but I think she’ll win here, too. But don’t count Kidman out.

Oscar prediction: Chastain

My vote: Kidman

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”
• Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
• Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”
• J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”
• Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”

All are first-time nominees except for previous winner Simmons (supporting for “Whiplash”). But he was somewhat of a surprise nominee here, and is a long shot.

Hinds and Plemons are long shots, as well.

That leaves Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, who seemed to be an early favorite for his role as an androgynous ranch hand (he won the Golden Globe). It’s a tender yet controlled performance, and he says more with his eyes than he ever does with words.

Kotsur, though, has gained momentum as a deaf father. And if he is victorious, he’ll become the first deaf male actor to win an Oscar (interestingly, his deaf co-star in “CODA,” Marlee Matlin, won lead actress for “Children of A Lesser God”).

Oscar prediction: Kotsur

My vote: Smit-McPhee

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
• Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
• Judi Dench, “Belfast”
• Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
• Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”

All are first-time nominees except for previous winner Dench (supporting for “Shakespeare in Love”). At 87, she’s also the third-oldest acting nominee of all time. But she probably won’t win here.

Buckley is a long shot, and Ellis isn’t getting any buzz to win, either.

Dunst gave the best performance of her career as an alcoholic wife trying to make the best of life on a secluded ranch.

But DeBose should win hands-down for her fiery performance as Anita, the same role that won co-star Rita Moreno a supporting actress Oscar in the original movie version of “West Side Story.”

Oscar prediction: DeBose

My vote: DeBose

DIRECTING

• “Belfast,” Kenneth Branagh
• “Drive My Car,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi
• “Licorice Pizza,” Paul Thomas Anderson
• “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion
• “West Side Story,” Steven Spielberg

Only Hamaguchi is a first-time nominee, among a field of Oscar veterans.

Spielberg ties Billy Wilder as the third most-nominated director with eight (he won for “Saving Private Ryan” and “Schindler’s List”).

Branagh now has been nominated in seven categories (picture, directing, original screenplay, adapted screenplay, live-action short, lead actor and supporting actor). He has yet to win.

This is Anderson’s 11th nomination (which includes producing, writing and directing), but he also hasn’t won yet.

But previous nominee Campion (she was nominated for directing “The Piano” and won for its screenplay) is the one to beat here. She just won the Directors Guild, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA awards and seems poised to become only the third woman to win a directing Oscar (behind Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker” and Chloe Zhao for “Nomadland”).

Oscar prediction: Campion

My vote: Spielberg

This story was originally published March 27, 2022 at 4:19 AM with the headline "The Power of Oscar: Movie Maniac’s 2022 predictions."