Most treacherous round in Sprint Cup’s Chase starts at Kansas Speedway

Kansas Speedway bats leadoff in what might be the most treacherous round in NASCAR’s new Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship format.

The upcoming Contender Round consists of Kansas Speedway, where drivers are still adjusting to the repave of two years ago; Charlotte Motor Speedway, which like Kansas, is a 1.5 mile tri-oval; and Talladega Superspeedway, the 2.5-mile autobahn where anything can happen and usually does.

“In some ways all the brackets are survival brackets,” said 2012 champion Brad Keselowski, “but this particular bracket is probably more so than the others. Surviving Talladega is its own horror-film title, but it’s also a reality.”

Four of the 12 drivers remaining in the Chase will be eliminated after Talladega, and most are counting on strong finishes at Kansas this week or Charlotte next week to help them advance to the Elimination Round. A win at any of the three tracks guarantees transfer to the last round of three before the season finale at Homestead.

“You can control your destiny more so at Charlotte than any other race track, which is good,” said Keselowski, a 2011 winner at Kansas Speedway before it was repaved. “We’re putting an emphasis on that race, but then I look at Kansas and say that since that track has been repaved, it seems to be very, very sensitive to aerodynamics and getting in a pack and spinning out with a really hard tire, so anything could happen there. It’s almost like a mini-Talladega in that sense. “

Keselowski, Team Penske teammate Joey Logano and four-time Sprint Cup champion Jeff Gordon won the three Challenger Round races, but the points are reset to 3,000 and everyone starts off fresh with this week’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Gordon is a three-time winner at Kansas Speedway, including the spring race this year.

“You’re going to see drivers and teams taking big risks at Kansas and Charlotte, because to me, the chances of wrecking at Talladega these days are about 80 percent,” Gordon said. “The chances are so high the way the racing is, the way the drafting is, that even if you survive the wrecks all the way to the end, there’s still probably going to be a wreck at the end. You don’t want to go in there worried about, ‘Oh, we’ve got to finish ninth or got to finish fifth.’ That would just add a lot of stress.”

Six-time champion Jimmie Johnson is a two-time winner at Kansas and record seven-time winner at Charlotte, so he’d like to take the suspense out of things by time the series hits Talladega.

“Talladega is definitely the wild card,” said Johnson. “If I’m one of the guys who wins at Charlotte or Kansas, it’s sure going to make the race at Talladega fun. Otherwise you’re just going to be on pins and needles and stressing like crazy.

“That’s the strategy; really try to win one of those first two so you can go to Talladega, pull them tight and let it rip.”

Not everyone fears Talladega.

Carl Edwards, of Columbia, has not won at any of the three tracks other than the nonpoints-paying All-Star Race at Charlotte, but he doesn’t fear Talladega, where he finished third in 2013 and fifth in 2012.

“This is built for us,” said Edwards, who owns eight wins at Chase tracks, third most to Johnson’s 24 and Tony Stewart’s 11. “We’ve got to capitalize on it and go run well at Kansas and Charlotte. We know we can win Talladega, so I look forward to that race. That’s the first time I’ve ever looked forward to Talladega in the Chase, but I’m looking forward to it.”

At least five drivers will advance to the Eliminator Round without winning one of the next three races.

“Essentially, you do it the same way you did the first round, you do it through solid finishes,” said Kyle Busch. “Talladega is a huge unknown … anything can happen. There could be a guy who is already eliminated and has a bad day at Kansas or Charlotte and may win Talladega or may run up front at Talladega and some other guys get caught up in a wreck.”

There’s no guarantee a Chase driver will win any or all three of the next three races. Rookie Kyle Larson, who was sixth last Sunday at Dover, would love to crash the Chase party.

“Hopefully I can be the guy that wins Kansas and Charlotte,” Larson said, “so all the Chase guys can be nervous going into Talladega.”

This story was originally published September 30, 2014 at 4:47 PM with the headline "Most treacherous round in Sprint Cup’s Chase starts at Kansas Speedway."