Wichita State’s margin of error for building NCAA Tournament resume diminishes after loss

After Wichita State lost to Illinois State, coach Gregg Marshall wrote “NIT” on the dry erase board in the Koch Arena film room.

No explanation needed.

“We don’t want to settle for the NIT, or anything but the NCAA Tournament,” WSU sophomore Rashard Kelly said. “We’ve got to keep our mind focused on what we want to do and what we want to do for the city of Wichita.”

Since then, the situation worsened. Guard Ron Baker’s absence from Sunday’s practice due to illness adds to the mood before Monday’s game against New Mexico State (18-8).

The 25th-ranked Shockers (18-7) defeated Drake, then lost at home to Northern Iowa on Saturday, leading to an 18-place drop to No. 52 in the power rankings (RPI). With five regular-season games remaining, WSU’s credentials for an NCAA Tournament at-large spot are slipping. The margin of error rebuilt during a 12-game win streak is negligible.

The possibility of five seniors ending their career in the NIT hovers over the next three weeks, during which time the Shockers will either win an automatic bid, win enough games to feel good about an at-large spot or wake up on Selection Sunday nervous.

“Nobody can feel what seniors feel; I didn’t, and you don’t feel it until you’re there” WSU senior guard Fred VanVleet said. “We’ve got to do a better job, whatever we’re doing. Something’s got to change. It’s not time to point fingers or any of that stuff. It’s time to look in the mirror and see what you can do to help this team.”

On Sunday, the Shockers lifted weights, watched film and shot baskets for around 30 minutes, a light day to save legs for Monday’s game against New Mexico State. Baker stayed home — coach Gregg Marshall said he was throwing up — and his availability for the game will be determined on Monday.

The good news is there is time to repair some of the damage, while hoping other teams fade. The Shockers aren’t the only team with a February slip on the resume for the NCAA selection committee to evaluate.

No. 11 Oregon, No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 24 Texas lost twice last week. Twelve other ranked teams lost at least once. Just outside the top 25, South Carolina, Indiana, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Gonzaga, LSU and VCU all lost a game last week. Some will continue to lose. WSU, especially because of the weakness of the Missouri Valley Conference, can’t be one of those teams.

Before Saturday’s loss, most bracket projections seeded the Shockers between No. 7 and No. 11. They will drop in those projections, largely because of their 1-4 record against teams in the top 50 of the RPI and a total of three wins against the top 100, two of which are against No. 98 Evansville.

Monday’s game offers WSU a chance to recapture some confidence, especially on offense. The Shockers shot 35.2 percent in a 58-53 loss to Illinois State and a season-low 30.3 percent in Saturday’s 53-50 loss to UNI. Both teams played zone and VanVleet knows teams will attempt to copy that success. His level of concern about WSU’s ability to score against a zone dropped when the Shockers shot UNI out of its zone defense in the second half.

“I think it’s like a thing now, a fad,” he said. “Now any time a team plays a zone, everybody wants to make a huge thing out of it. I thought we played pretty well against it. We know we had issues against Illinois State, but I felt like we attacked Drake’s zone pretty well and Northern Iowa, they got out of it.”

Marshall sees the issue similarly. Illinois State and Northern Iowa are, according to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced statistics, the third- and fourth-best defensive teams in the MVC.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily the zone, we’re just struggling to score,” he said.

The Aggies bring a nine-game win streak to Koch Arena, as well as solid defensive credentials. Sophomore forward Pascal Siakam averages 21.7 points and 11.7 rebounds and his appearance means several NBA scouts are scheduled to attend.

This story was originally published February 14, 2016 at 8:03 PM with the headline "Wichita State’s margin of error for building NCAA Tournament resume diminishes after loss."