Why the loss at Temple may cost Wichita State come March

Wichita State allowing late leads to slip away in regulation, then overtime of an 81-79 loss at Temple may be more costly than falling in the conference standings and losing another road game.

The long-term consequence could affect their seed ceiling of the NCAA Tournament, as the Shockers had their best opportunity of the season to register a “Quadrant One” victory.

Need a refresher on “Quadrant One?” The selection committee announced before the season that while it will still use RPI as its base measure of teams, it has overhauled its outlook on weighing all wins, regardless of location, as equal. Instead, they have created tiers – or quadrants – that reward wins at neutral sites and on the road more.

Quadrant One is the highest tier and includes victories over opponents ranked 1-30 for home games, 1-50 at neutral sites, and 1-75 on the road.

This is why the Temple loss hurts WSU even more. WSU is 0-3 in these top-tier games and remain the only team ranked in the top 30 (WSU is No. 28) of the RPI without a Quadrant One win.

Chances remain on the schedule. The home-and-away with Cincinnati gives WSU two chances to claim a marquee win, while road games at SMU (No. 69) and Central Florida (No. 73) could finish as Quadrant One road wins if those teams finish in the top 75. More chances could come if WSU faces Temple, Houston, or Cincinnati on a neutral court at the conference tournament in Orlando.

WSU could also see non-conference victories like the neutral-court win over Marquette (No. 60) and road wins at Baylor (No. 92) and at Oklahoma State (No. 83) turn into Quadrant One wins if those teams make late-season pushes.

But waiting on help from other teams late in the season is unreliable and why WSU’s loss at Temple, which would have been a for-sure top-tier win, will likely cap WSU’s seeding come March and puts even more pressure to at least split with Cincinnati in the regular season.

While WSU may find it difficult to earn a top-four seed at this point, fears of falling completely out of the NCAA Tournament are overblown.

The Shockers own nine Quadrant Two victories, which is two more than any team in the country. WSU also has no losses outside of the top two quadrants, something nine teams ranked ahead of WSU in the RPI cannot claim.

WSU has tier-two games at Memphis on Tuesday, against Connecticut on Saturday, and against Temple on Feb. 15, while the road games at SMU on Feb. 24 and at UCF on March 1 are currently swinging between Quadrant One and Quadrant Two.

This story was originally published February 5, 2018 at 7:28 PM with the headline "Why the loss at Temple may cost Wichita State come March."