Russell Arben Fox: Political swings in Kansas not that surprising

Politics in Kansas today is suddenly big news. The New York Times, the Washington Post and many other major national (and some international) news outlets have written lately about the latest poll results and the latest legal moves in Kansas’ current electoral contests.

All this attention shouldn’t be surprising. After all, we have a solid but uninspiring longtime Republican senator being challenged by a popular independent – one who, with the departure of a Democrat from the ticket, is now seen as the favorite to win. We have a polarizing Republican secretary of state who became controversially involved in that same Senate race, all while running for re-election against a former Republican. And finally we have the governor’s race, one in which more than a few conservative Republicans see the fate of a vital ideologically anti-government experiment hanging in the balance.

All of that adds up, unsurprisingly, to some fascinating political news.

But for the national and international media, the surprising part of these stories is that they’re happening in Kansas. For so many, Kansas is assumed to be an easy place to explain, politically speaking. We’re deep red, we’re conservatives, we vote Republican – end of story.

All this proves, though, is how short many people’s memories are.

Think back to 2004, when Thomas Frank published his best-seller, “What’s the Matter With Kansas?” That book argued that the political mix of Christian piety and anti-tax rhetoric that has characterized many Republican claims over the past 20 years was mostly cooked up in places like Kansas. The Sunflower State became the perfect laboratory, Frank asserted, for perfecting populist resentment against liberalism, making Kansas the real heart of modern American conservatism. All that became part of the popular and national political narrative of our state.

But then, move forward four years. Democrat Kathleen Sebelius was well into her second term as Kansas’ governor. High-profile Republicans such as Mark Parkinson and Paul Morrison had switched parties and gained seats of power in 2006 (and the latter notoriously defeating social conservative hero Phill Kline to do so). The New Republic had run a cover story on “What’s Not the Matter With Kansas.”

Clearly, the Sunflower State was more complicated than they thought.

Move forward yet another four years. Now the story is the Brownback revolution, and the way the state Republican Party – with the political and financial support of Americans for Prosperity and the Kansas Chamber of Commerce – got more reliable conservatives elected to the Legislature by undermining some of their own long-timer members. This controversial effort was successful, granting Gov. Sam Brownback enough legislative support to continue to push through his state-shrinking, supposedly job-creating agenda.

Clearly then, Kansas actually was red all the way.

Now move forward two more years, and we have today. Republicans in the Legislature look safe, but the top of their ticket is struggling. Polls show the most-prominent GOP statewide officials possibly facing defeat, with potentially huge consequences for the conservative agenda and the national Republican Party.

How surprising, say the media, to see such an unexpected turnaround in such a predictable place as Kansas.

This is a fascinating political season in our state, with many unexpected events. But in my view, the single most unsurprising thing about it all is the fact that, when it comes to Kansas, many national journalists keep getting surprised, again and again.

This story was originally published October 1, 2014 at 7:03 PM with the headline "Russell Arben Fox: Political swings in Kansas not that surprising."