Davis Merritt: China, not Trump or Kim, calls shots

Considering all the recent public bombast, one might think that Kim Jung Un and Donald Trump control the future of the Korean peninsula. They don’t. China does.

Kim and Trump choose not to distinguish between rhetorical and actual threats, so they seem compelled to demonstrate their manhood by overreacting to either one. That’s how fights start, whether in kindergarten sandboxes, after senior proms or on the world stage with apocalyptic weapons. Fortunately, there’s an involved adult around — in this case China — to keep the lid on.

If Trump were an enlightened, experienced leader rather than a spoiled, insulated autocrat, he would know that true strength is most effectively employed quietly and its exercise needn’t be preceded by public bluster.

It has been inevitable for years — with China as reluctant enabler — that North Korea would develop a nuclear missile capable of hitting the U.S. That’s in China’s best interest, but it’s also in China’s best interest that they never be used.

Both China and North Korea know that any attack on American territories or facilities would result in the instantaneous destruction of North Korea’s cities, military and the Kim regime. That’s the last thing China wants because the inevitable result of the collapse of Kim — whether by “fire and fury” or strongly enforced economic sanctions — would be millions of refugees flooding across the 880-mile Chinese-Korean border, eventually followed by reunification of Korea that would plant Korean and American forces along that border.

Which would also upset Trump’s buddy Vladimir in Moscow, since Russia and Korea share 11 miles of border tucked into the northeast corner of the peninsula.

Given those realities, it is useless as well as a sign of weakness that Trump, every time Kim fires off another missile or his mouth, responds with threats of “fire and fury,” and America being “locked and loaded.”

It’s possible, and scary, that both pathologically narcissistic men are talking primarily for home consumption and that either could talk himself into a testosterone-infused corner from which the only escape he could see would be to lash out militarily.

Kim and his familial predecessors long have used the threat of American aggression to justify the vast expense of the missile buildup that helps impoverish his miserable nation. Every public outburst from Trump strengthens Kim’s domestic propaganda hand, so Kim immediately responds (watch out Guam) and Trump doubles down.

Whether Trump’s bombast helps him with more than his impenetrable, if shrinking, political base is uncertain. But if hostilities erupt, Americans will clearly know who to blame since 70 years of presidents have lived in a nuclear environment while maintaining America’s position in a changing world.

China and Russia recognize the danger of the Trump-Kim mouth-off, but they have limited options. They understand Mutually Assured Destruction and have avoided playing the N-card or overtly threatening to do so. They know there would be no winners, only survivors. They know that employing North Korea as a proxy combatant against the U.S. would also have the same net negative results, so North Korea will be allowed to join the club.

MAD is neither a comfortable status nor inexpensive, but it’s where the world is stuck and it has worked thus far. Trump, the prideful Great Disrupter, needs to figure that out, or, if he cannot, heed his advisors who have.

This story was originally published August 15, 2017 at 4:40 AM with the headline "Davis Merritt: China, not Trump or Kim, calls shots."