Kansas task force: No clear answers as to what’s causing quake increase

There is insufficient research available to say what has caused a significant increase of minor earthquakes in Kansas, a governor-appointed task force concluded in a report that was made available this week.

To improve the information, the group asked for six state-operated monitoring stations to be installed to gather data. There now are two, and both are run by a federal agency.

The task force also developed a unique scoring formula that it hopes will improve understanding of whether the quakes are man-made or natural.

Fingers have frequently pointed at the gas and oil industry for causing an unusual increase in earthquakes – 49 this year through Aug. 25, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

The oil and gas industry has seen a steady increase in production since 2004, particularly over the past 18 months in south-central Kansas.

Part of that work includes injecting saltwater – after it’s separated from the oil – into disposal wells. There is speculation that injection creates pressure on faults and triggers earthquakes.

But the task force hasn’t been able to draw that conclusion in the eight months since Gov. Sam Brownback appointed the three-person committee to come up with a plan to address the state’s increase in quakes.

At the time he named the panel, Brownback called the recent jump in quakes a “matter of public safety.”

“I don’t know that anybody thought we were going to be able to come out of this with a definitive answer in such a limited amount of time to something so complex,” Rex Buchanan, chairman of the task force and interim director of the Kansas Geological Survey, told The Eagle.

But he said the amount of information is rapidly growing, including some significant developments since the task force had a public meeting in Wichita in April.

Just last month, the USGS issued a report saying that man-made earthquakes were 16 times weaker than natural quakes.

“If we don’t have a better understanding of this in two or three years from now,” Buchanan said, “I would be disappointed.”

Funding new monitors

The vast majority of the 49 earthquakes that have made the USGS’ alert level were recorded in Sumner and Harper counties, Buchanan said. Some had magnitudes of less than 2.0, with the strongest one at 3.7 on March 16.

To help improve the research, the task force called for installation of the six permanent monitors. Since 1989, the state has relied on information from two monitors operated by the USGS. One of those, near Manhattan, doesn’t work very well, state officials have said.

Kansas also draws information about quakes within its borders from about 30 monitors in Oklahoma.

The cost of purchasing and installing the six monitors would be about $200,000, according to the task force’s report. Annual operating costs would be about $80,000, including the ability to electronically transmit the data in real time to KGS’ headquarters in Lawrence.

The Legislature allotted $160,000 in the last session to partially fund the project. The task force’s three agencies – the KGS, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment and the Kansas Corporation Commission – will try to complete the funding, including from state and federal sources, Buchanan said.

“We’re going to go ahead and start the process with what we have,” he said. “We’ll operate under the assumption that we’ll be able to find funding to get it up and running.”

Meanwhile, the state will tap some information from 10 or 11 temporary monitors that a USGS scientist put in Sumner and Harper counties last spring. They’re expected to be available for another six months.

Part of the problem now is there isn’t a base line of information on past seismic activity in a particular area, Buchanan said.

“If you don’t know the background,” he added, “you don’t know what new stuff you’re seeing.”

So some of the new monitors will be placed in areas where oil and gas drilling isn’t currently being done but is expected to begin soon.

Although state officials agree there has been a significant increase in the number of earthquakes recently, they hesitate to quantify it because Kansas has been inconsistent with its monitoring over the years. It had 14 monitors for more than a decade prior to 1989.

The state saw 56 quakes recorded during a seven-month stretch from late 2013 through mid-April.

Oklahoma has far more monitors, so the state is better able to gauge the increase. The jump has been dramatic.

Oklahoma averaged about 50 quakes per year until 2009. Since then earthquake activity has been about 40 times higher than in the previous 30 years, according to the state’s geological survey.

Over a seven-day span from Aug. 29 until 11 a.m. Thursday, the state saw 46 quakes – ranging in magnitude from 3.4 to under 2.0, according to the Oklahoma Geological Survey’s website.

A position statement issued in February 2014 by OGS said it has “long been recognized by scientists” that injecting fluid and withdrawing it as part of oil and gas activities “can trigger earthquakes.”

Kansas officials aren’t ready to draw that conclusion for what’s happening in this state.

In addressing the oil and gas industry, the task force’s report noted that “most agree that the physical act of hydraulic fracturing does not cause measurable seismic activity.” Also known as fracking, the drilling method uses a mixture of sand, water and chemicals under high pressure to release oil and gas from rock.

At the same time, the group’s report said there is “no consensus” on whether the disposal wells are the culprit.

“More data needs to be collected,” the report concluded.

The report noted that the state’s oil and gas industry generates nearly $4.3 billion annually and has 118,000 employees.

Tracking formula

As part of the task force’s response plan, staff members of the group’s agencies developed a formula known as the seismic action score to get a better handle on the quakes’ effects.

“Just plain magnitude doesn’t tell you a lot,” Buchanan said. “The formula is trying to take a bunch of things into account.

“It’s pretty unusual. No one has tried anything quite like this.”

The formula takes into account the risk factor in terms of damage for an area as well as whether quakes are clustered in one area and how often they occur there.

“If you have an earthquake where there aren’t any structures,” Buchanan said, “should you worry about that as much as one in downtown Wichita?

“But just because it’s in a rural area doesn’t mean you should forget about it.”

Most current information provided to the state by USGS monitors gives only the location of a quake within six miles. That doesn’t help much when trying to figure out how often quakes are happening in a specific spot, Buchanan said.

“This is really an attempt to try and tease apart some of that induced activity from naturally occurring,” he added.

The formula was tested on some historical data gained from the late 1980s, when it is believed oil and gas activity created a jump in earthquakes in Rooks County.

“It seemed to work well,” Buchanan said of applying the formula to that period. “Now we’re going to use it to guide us in the future.

“I know it gets kind of complicated, but it’s a complicated question.”

In developing the plan, the report stated the task force “considered the safety of all Kansans, along with the impacts to the industry and the environment.”

During public input for the group’s findings, environmental groups raised concerns about saltwater in disposal wells contaminating fresh-water supplies.

But the report said state construction regulations require sealing off fresh-water aquifers from the disposal wells. Those requirements are enforced through testing, the report said.

The task force also addressed a call for a “liability pool” to be used to repair any damage caused by man-made earthquakes.

The report dismissed creating such a pool, in part, until “clearly defined responsible parties” are identified. Those parties don’t exist now, it said.

Buchanan acknowledged the task force didn’t pursue liability issues to a great extent.

“We really felt that liability was outside the scope of what we were asked to do,” Buchanan said. “What we were asked to do was difficult enough without taking that on.”

This story was originally published September 4, 2014 at 6:52 AM with the headline "Kansas task force: No clear answers as to what’s causing quake increase."