Bob Lutz: Ready or not, it’s Valley time

It seems like just yesterday that Missouri Valley Conference basketball was strutting around with a fat belly.

Now, though, the MVC is starving for acclaim.

The MVC is ranked 14th among Division I basketball conferences as the calendar prepares to turn to 2016, continuing a slide that began after the Valley rose to sixth nationally in 2005-06 and 2006-07.

Those were the days.

Northern Iowa (53) and Wichita State (56) are the MVC schools in the top 60 of the RPI, according to RealTimeRPI.com. Evansville and Southern Illinois, who sport the Valley’s best records at 11-2, are 73rd and 116th.

Why so low? Because they haven’t played anyone. Evansville’s non-conference strength of schedule is ranked No. 248; Southern Illinois is 288.

The Valley finished its non-conference record at 66-58. That’s a paltry mark considering only Wichita State (sixth) and Northern Iowa (31st) have strength of schedules worth discussing. Take away the 22-4 record put up by Evansville and SIU against mostly inferior competition and the Valley’s mark dips to 44-54. Discount the Valley’s 8-1 record against NCAA Division II teams and the record is 36-53.

This is why the Valley ranks below the Summit League (10), Big West Conference (12) and Horizon League (13) on the conference power chart, two spots lower than the Valley finished last season.

If you’re stumped as to why Wichita State president John Bardo is considering a switch in conference affiliation as part of an overall evaluation of the Shocker athletics, the Valley’s slide in college basketball prestige is the reason.

In 2007-08, the MVC’s RPI fell from sixth to eighth, then ninth a year later. It stayed at ninth in 2009-10 before falling to 12th, then back up to eighth, then ninth, then 11th, then 12th.

And now 14th.

Seven of the Valley’s 10 teams are ranked 116th or lower and four — Loyola (225), Missouri State (238), Bradley (283) and Drake (284) — are in need of search parties to be found in college basketball’s wilderness.

The conference’s at-large resume for the NCAA Tournament is in shambles. And unless Wichita State’s strength of schedule comes to the rescue in March, even the Shockers might be looking in from the outside when tournament selections are announced, unless WSU wins the Valley tournament.

Wichita State is still the cream of the Valley. The Shockers are still trying to get to full strength after a hamstring injury to senior point guard Fred VanVleet and Anton Grady’s recovery from a spinal concussion.

WSU has played three opponents who fall outside the RPI top 79 and five within the top 50. The Shockers, who open MVC play Thursday against Drake, have a strong resume everywhere except the win-loss column, where they’re 6-5, including a win over Division II Emporia State.

Northern Iowa has made the biggest splash among Valley schools so far with wins over North Carolina and Iowa State, the third- and fourth-ranked RPI teams.

But the Panthers have dropped five games, including losses to Colorado State (194) and New Mexico (147). Mystifying.

Evansville, picked to finish second to WSU in the Valley’s preseason poll, might still fit the part. But outside of Providence (14), UC Irvine (59) and Belmont (88), the Purple Aces haven’t played any other teams ranked higher than 127 in the RPI.

MVC teams played 23 games against Top 50 RPI teams and 40 against teams ranked 200 or lower. While some schools are taking seriously the mandate from commissioner Doug Elgin to upgrade their non-conference schedules, others are giving it lip service. If that.

And the Valley’s fall from grace continues. It’s only logical to wonder whether this is where Wichita State, which has more basketball resources and fans than any school in the MVC, belongs.

In other conferences with opportunities for multiple at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament, the Shockers could overcome their slow start with a strong performance in league play.

In the Valley, though, it might not be enough. Wichita State could conceivably win the Valley with a record in the 16-2 range and still be on the edge of its seat on Selection Sunday if the Shockers don’t win the tournament.

We’ll find out a lot about the MVC early. Wichita State is at home against Evansville on Jan. 6, then goes to Southern Illinois on Jan. 9. Are those teams for real?

Evansville probably is, although the Aces haven’t helped themselves with their non-conference schedule. Still, we know enough about standout players D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius to respect the Aces.

SIU is another matter. The Salukis’ 11-2 record looks nice until you dig deeper and realize their best win is against Kent State and their two losses were to teams ranked 207th (SIU-Edwardsville) and 228th (UTEP) in the RPI.

The Valley lacks a powerhouse team, although Wichita State has played like one at times and could easily regain that status. Still, the Shockers enter conference play ranked 56th in the RPI. They have some climbing to do, but it’ll be difficult to get a foothold in the Valley.

This story was originally published December 29, 2015 at 11:48 AM with the headline "Bob Lutz: Ready or not, it’s Valley time."