Bob Lutz’s annual Sweet 16: Preseason predictions with a strong Kansas twist

Let’s start with the good news.

Last year, I correctly predicted six of the eight teams that would eventually reach the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. And I got three of the Final Four teams right.

And that’s a brief rundown on the good news from my 2015 NCAA Tournament predictions.

I got just more than half of the field — 37 of 68 — correct. And I somehow picked Kansas State to reach not only the tournament, but to get to the Sweet 16. That pick had exploded by December.

This is a new year. And there are new predictions, including a Final Four straight out of Dreamworks that would shine a bright light on the basketball traditions in Kansas. How about a Wichita State, Kansas, Oklahoma and Maryland Final Four? The Shockers and Jayhawks have obvious Kansas ties. Lon Kruger, who is from Silver Lake and played at Kansas State, coaches at Oklahoma. And Mark Turgeon, who grew up in Topeka, played in Kansas and later coached at Wichita State, is the head man at Maryland.

And the best thing about such a scenario is that it’s plausible. A longshot, for sure, as are all preseason Final Four projects. But … it… could… happen.

Here’s how I see the 2016 NCAA Tournament field shaping up:

Sweet 16

Arizona – The Wildcats fell short of their expectations last season by losing to Wisconsin in the Elite Eight. That says something about Arizona’s expectations. They might not be as high this season after the loss of Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Brandon Ashley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. The only returning starter is 7-foot center Kaleb Tarczewski. But with a combination of returning backup players, transfers and a strong freshman class, don’t think Sean Miller is giving in to lower expectations. Parker Jackson-Cartwright takes over at the point while shooting guard Elliott Pitts and center Dusan Ristic take on larger roles. Arizona is going to be just fine.

California – Cuonzo Martin has the Bears on a fast track after an 18-15 season last season, Martin’s first after leaving Tennessee. Three key starters from last season are back, led by forward Tyrone Wallace, who averaged 17.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists last season. Also back are Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird and Martin has added freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, both of whom are expected to contribute immediately. Cal has won only one conference championship in the past 55 years and that came in 2009-10. The Bears are good enough to chase another one this season, even in a loaded conference like the Pac-12.

Duke – You won’t recognize the Blue Devils from last year, when they won the national championship with freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones playing important roles. They’ve all moved on to the NBA, replaced by a new group of freshmen the country will soon get to know. They include guards Derryck Thornton and Luke Kennard, center Chase Jeter and swingman Brandon Ingram. One returnee is guard Grayson Allen, who had a huge Final Four by scoring 16 points in the championship game against Wisconsin. But only three other players return from that team and they combined to averaged only 18.7 points.

Gonzaga – Coach Mark Few lost three key seniors from last season in guards Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell and Byron Wesley. He’ll have to rebuild the Bulldogs’ backcourt. The frontcourt, though, is solid as steel. Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis and Przemek Karnowski are all going to play in the NBA at some point and should provide Gonzaga with one of the best group of big men in the country. Few will figure out the guard situation with the likes of Kyle Dranginis, Silas Melson and Vanderbilt transfer Eric McClellan.

Indiana – There has been upheaval and turmoil at Indiana under Tom Crean, but the Hoosiers’ talent is undeniable. It starts with guard Yogi Ferrell, whose tit for tat with Wichita State’s Fred VanVleet in the 2015 NCAA Tournament was memorable. Indiana has won five NCAA Tournament games since 2007, so Crean could use a run in the tournament. Also back are forward Troy Williams and guards James Blackmon Jr., and Robert Johnson. Freshmen Thomas Bryant and Juwan Morgan will get a lot of time in the frontcourt.

Iowa State – They called Fred Hoiberg “The Mayor” because he could have been the mayor of Ames, Iowa. Easily. Now, though, Hoiberg is the coach of the NBA’s Chicago Bulls and Steve Prohm, most recently the coach at Murray State, takes over. Let’s just say he landed in a soft spot, because the Cyclones are loaded with talent. What isn’t so sure is whether Prohm’s coaching style will mesh with this team and the fan base the way Hoiberg’s did. He has a tough act to follow but a fine cast to make a good first impression. Georges Niang, Jameel McKay, Monte Morris and Naz Mitrou-Long lead the returnees and forward Abdel Nader is due to take on a bigger role.

Kansas – Senior forward Perry Ellis is primed for a big season. An All-America type season. Mark it down. And Ellis has lots of help from the likes of Frank Mason, Wayne Selden, Devonte Graham, Svi Mykhailiuk, Jamari Traylor and Brannen Greene. Not to mention prize freshmen Carlton Bragg and Cheick Diallo, who is still waiting to find out whether the NCAA will make him eligible after having some questions about his high school transcripts. Ellis, from Heights, also will help KU win its 12th consecutive Big 12 title, but this is a team with high aspirations and a team capable of fulfilling them.

Kentucky – The Wildcats have to replace… the list is too long, so let’s just say they have to replace a lot. But who is better at replacing a lot than John Calipari. He’s brought in another fantastic group of freshmen to go with returnees Marcus Lee, Tyler Ulus and Alex Poythress, back from a season-ending left knee injury. UK was 38-0 before losing to Duke in the national championship game and the freshmen include centers Skai Labissiere and Isaac Humphries along with guards Isaiah Brisco, Charles Matthews and Jamal Murray.

Maryland – Turgeon has a team capable of winning a national championship. Melo Trimble, who led the Terps in scoring, assists and steals last season, is a big reason why. So is Jake Layman, who led Maryland in rebounding. Doubts about Turgeon, who failed to take the Terrapins to the NCAA Tournament in his first three seasons, are finally disappearing. A pair of transfers – Robert Carter Jr. (Georgia Tech) and Rasheed Sulaimon (Duke) will figure prominently into this season’s success. So will 6-11 freshman Diamond Stone, who can play while also carrying one of the best names in sports.

Michigan State – After a somewhat-unexpected Final Four run last season, we should finally have learned that it’s foolish to count the Spartans out as long as they’re coached by Tom Izzo. He’s a mastermind. Despite losing Travis Trice and Branden Dawson, Michigan State is a Final Four threat with senior guard Denzel Valentine leading the way. He averaged 14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists and will be joined in the backcourt by Bryn Forbes, a high school teammate. The Spartans have been to seven Final Fours under Izzo. An eighth is a distinct possibility.

North Carolina – Roy Wiliams isn’t going to coach a whole lot longer, we wouldn’t think, and this is a team capable of giving him another national championship, to go with those won in 2005 and 2009. The Tar Heels received 60 of the 89 first-place votes in the ACC preseason poll because they return four starters and nine of their 10 leading scorers from a 26-12 team. Guard Marcus Paige is one of the handful of best players in the country after suffering through a variety of injuries last season and Brice Johnson is a tough matchup inside. North Carolina hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2009. Anything less this season will be a disappointment.

Oklahoma – The Sooners were fun to watch last season and basketball fans might be able to watch them for a lot longer this season. That’s a way of saying OU can get to the Elite Eight or more after losing in the Sweet 16 in last season’s NCAA Tournament. Four starters are back from a 24-11 team, including reigning Big 12 player of the year Buddy Hield, who averaged 17.4 points and 5.4 rebounds. Three other starters are back, including guards Ksaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard and forward Ryan Spangler and two freshmen, Christian James and Rashard Odomes, are expected to make big contributions.

Utah – Larry Krystkowiak is establishing himself as a top-tier coach and this team should again be up the upper tier of the rankings. The Utes lost their Mr. Everything, Deion Wright, to graduation but should have more depth. Defense is the Utes’ calling card and there are four starters back from a 26-9 team, including center Jakob Poelti and guard Brandon Taylor.

Villanova – It feels like Villanova is consistently overrated from year to year, but everyone seems to think this season’s Wildcats are the can’t-miss team of the season. So we’ll see. They do have one of the country’s top freshmen in point guard Jalen Brunson and some quality returning players in Josh Hart, Ryan Arcidiancono and Phil Booth. All are guards, so it’s fair to wonder how the Wildcats will fare upfront, which is where center Daniel Ochefu and forward Kris Jenkins come into play. Remember, Villanova has lost as a top-10 team during the NCAA Tournament’s first weekend two years running.

Virginia – Malcolm Brogdon returns and that’s enough to make the Cavaliers a strong contender. He averaged 14 points and helped led Virginia to its second straight 30-win season and ACC regular season championship. But the Cavs have lost to Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament the past two seasons. Brogdon is one of four seniors back to make sure it doesn’t happen again. He’s joined by forward Anthony Gill (11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds), center Mike Tobey and guard Evan Nolte.

Wichita State – When guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet announced they would be returning to WSU for their senior seasons, the Shockers’ stock soared. They are among the nation’s best guards and play in the same backcourt. But WSU has more where they came from, including a solid group of sophomores – Shaq Morris, Rashard Kelly, Zach Brown – who could take off. There’s also a freshman class that could be among Gregg Marshall’s best and Kansas transfer Conner Frankamp, who becomes eligible Dec. 12. That’s not to mention tough-guy Evan Wessel, who takes care of the dirty work, or Cleveland State transfer Anton Grady, who helps the Shockers in the middle. There is nothing not to like about this team.　

Rest of the field

ACC – Florida State, Louisville, Miami, N.C. State, Notre Dame

America East – Stony Brook

American – Cincinnati, Connecticut, Tulsa

Atlantic Sun – North Florida

Atlantic 10 – Davidson, Rhode Island

Big East – Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier

Big Ten – Iowa, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big 12 – Baylor, Texas, West Virginia

Big Sky – Eastern Washington

Big South – High Point

Big West – UC Irvine

Colonial – Hofstra

Conference USA – Old Dominion

Horizon – Valparaiso

Ivy – Princeton

MAAC – Iona

MEAC – Hampton

Mid-American – Akron

Mountain West – Boise State, San Diego State

Northeast – Robert Morris

Ohio Valley – Belmont

Pac-12 – Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA

Patriot – Bucknell

SEC – Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Southern – Wofford

Southland – Stephen F. Austin

Summit – North Dakota State

Sun Belt – Louisiana-Lafayette

SWAC – Texas Southern

WAC – New Mexico State

West Coast – BYU　

Elite Eight

Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Wichita State

Final Four

Kansas, Maryland, Oklahoma, Wichita State

Championship game

Wichita State over Kansas

This story was originally published November 7, 2015 at 4:01 AM with the headline "Bob Lutz’s annual Sweet 16: Preseason predictions with a strong Kansas twist."