Bob Lutz: Major shift in ALDS after Royals win Game 2 over Astros

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Houston Astros are one of the most sabermetric-minded, analytical teams in the big leagues and who’s to argue?

Houston has gone from a 111-loss team just two seasons ago to the AL Divisional Series. So even though they make a baseball field look like a Texas hoedown with all of their defensive shifting and maneuvering, the proof is in the analysis-of-metrics pudding.

But Houston might have shifted itself out of a commanding 2-0 ALDS advantage on Friday at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City hit into the eye of all the shifting and came away with a comeback 5-4 win that sends the series to Minute Maid Park knotted 1-1.

After Thursday’s 5-2 loss to the Astros, the Royals were frustrated after hitting so many balls directly into Houston’s shift. A day later, they found holes. Funny how that works.

And it makes you wonder whether all the money and time put into defensive analytics is, well, worth all the money and time.

“Some days they work, some days they don’t,” Kansas City first baseman Eric Hosmer said. “Not only will (Houston) shift during the course of an at-bat, but from pitch to pitch.”

One of the key hits in Kansas City’s two-run sixth inning that tied the game was an opposite-field, groundball single by designated hitter Kendrys Morales that drove in a run. The Astros’ infielders were playing Morales to pull and what would have been a double-play ball against a normal defensive alignment because a real pain in the tush for Houston.

In the seventh, Royals leadoff hitter Alcides Escobar led off with a fly ball. That’s what it was, a fly ball. It didn’t even make the warning track in right-center field.

But because Houston right fielder George Springer was playing Escobar as if the Royals shortstop was in the Pony League, he couldn’t get to the ball. Center fielder Jake Marisnick came the closest. Escobar easily got to third, from where he scored on Ben Zobrist’s single.

“I just try to hit the ball, no matter what,” Escobar said, though he acknowledged he’s aware how shallow the Astros’ outfielders, especially in right, have played him this season. “Whether it goes to left field, center field, up the middle.… I don’t care. Those guys always play like that so you’re trying to hit the ball over their heads if you can.”

Friday’s win was a battle for the Royals. They fell behind early as Johnny Cueto once again struggled. He was fortunate to get through the first two innings with just three runs allowed because the Astros put eight men on base.

It looked like the Royals were in danger of going to Houston down 2-0 for Sunday’s Game 3 and having to face left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who is 15-0 at home this season. But this once again proves that an obituary should never be written early.

After allowing a leadoff homer in the fourth inning to Ruthian-like slugger Colby Rasmus, Cueto settled in. He retired 12 of the final 14 hitters he faced and got the game to that lock-down bullpen.

Meanwhile, his teammates were scratching and clawing at the plate after a meek performance in Game 1.

The sixth-inning up uprising started with a one-out double by Lorenzo Cain against Houston starter Scott Kazmir. The Astros went to side-winding lefty Oliver Perez to face Hosmer, who fell behind 0-2 when he swung and missed badly.

But there was another pitch. And this time, Hosmer stuck his bat out and dropped a single into shallow left-center field. Cain, who was running on the pitch, scored easily.

Then there was the Morales seeing-eye hit, after which Oliver Perez peered back in disbelief that a Houston defender wasn’t in position to make a play. He followed with a walk to Moustakas before the Royals’ Salvador Perez drew — sit down, you’re not gonna believe it — a bases-loaded walk from the Astros’ Josh Fields.

Salvador Perez, who never met a pitch he could resist swinging at, walked 13 times in 553 plate appearances during the regular season. But in this particular plate appearance, Fields didn’t throw anything remotely close enough for the swing-happy Perez to chase.

The normally-impatient Royals showed some patience, although Escobar was proud of the fact that he once again swing at the game’s first pitch — he popped out to first — and that Kansas City is now 40-17 when he does so.

Superstition trumps good baseball judgment every time.

For the most part, though, the Royals went by the book, which on this day was better than the Astros’ book. A game that has become so scientific can still be so simple.

Just hit ’em where they ain’t.

This story was originally published October 9, 2015 at 8:44 PM with the headline "Bob Lutz: Major shift in ALDS after Royals win Game 2 over Astros."