Bob Lutz: With Kansas, anything is possible

OMAHA – I know quite a few people who picked Iowa State to reach the Final Four.

And I think most had Baylor getting past Georgia State on the first day.

But as we’re finding out once again, the NCAA Tournament is a crazy place where what you’ve done previously and how much tradition you brag about in your media guide has little bearing.

Kansas knows the perils of the NCAAs well. Bucknell, Bradley, Northern Iowa.

And this Jayhawk team that opens with a second-round game against New Mexico State on Friday is susceptible to high levels of inconsistency.

KU might have drawn a 2-seed, but it’s shaky.

“I think we play close to our ceiling often,” Jayhawk coach Bill Self said Thursday. “But maybe not for the consistency of entire games.”

Kansas can be a juggernaut. Kansas can be an ugly mess. Often in the same game.

Self mentioned being up on Oklahoma by 21 points in the first half at Allen Fieldhouse, then down by five to the Sooners in the second half.

What Kansas team shows up in the NCAA Tournament?

Not even KU’s players seem sure.

“Nowhere close, actually,” freshman guard Kelly Oubre said when asked about how close KU has come to reaching its potential. “We can get better.”

Talent isn’t KU’s issue. Playing to the talent has been.

“It’s been an up-and-down season, but I feel like right now is when it really matters,” KU sophomore Wayne Selden said.

There’s something liberating about starting back on the ground, especially when you’ve been straining to touch your ceiling.

Kansas can put all of its trials and tribulations in the past. This is a team, after all, that won its 11th consecutive Big 12 regular-season championship. The Jayhawks have won 26 games. If you’re looking for a group of people that feels sorry for the Jayhawks, good luck. You’d be better off looking for gold in your back yard.

There’s a strange thing going on with Kansas. It’s almost as if the Jayhawks think they’re underdogs. Not necessarily against New Mexico State or in any particular game. But underdogs to their own tradition and mystique.

Kansas isn’t being taken seriously, even as a No. 2 seed. Maybe it’s because of the overwhelming presence of Kentucky, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Regional.

In November, Kentucky beat KU 72-40 in Chicago.

There’s not supposed to be a 32-point difference between the two highest-seeded teams in a region. But this is a strange year.

It’s been a long time since there was such an overwhelming favorite in this tournament. It feels like Kentucky has already won this thing, even though we’ve seen time after time how strange things can happen.

But can Kansas beat Kentucky? Can Wichita State? Can anyone? I have my doubts.

It’s logical to underestimate Kansas, especially in the wake of what happened to the Big 12 on the tournament’s first day.

The conference needs a white knight. Kansas could be that team. Or Kansas could stub its toe just as badly as Iowa State and Baylor.

A lot will depend on the health of 6-foot-8 junior Perry Ellis, who had become the consistent force the Jayhawks were lacking until suffering a knee sprain against West Virginia on March 3. Ellis missed two games before returning for the Baylor and Iowa State games in the Big 12 Tournament last week. He made 6 of 21 shots.

“He looks a lot better than he did last week,” Self said of Ellis, who averages 13.8 points and seven rebounds.

Those numbers, though, don’t tell his story. Ellis averaged 17.4 points and 8.2 rebounds over a 13-game stretch before being hurt and shot 55.2 percent.

Self expects a full-throttle Ellis the rest of the way, however far that road goes.

“He hasn’t missed any practice time,” Self said.

Self said it was tough to lose Ellis, and tough on Ellis to step aside in the midst of such a strong run.

“I thought last week the best thing that could have happened to him was to go to Kansas City,” Self said. “You knew he wasn’t going to play great … and you knew he wasn’t going to have the same confidence. You knew (his knee) was going to get hit and that he was going to be think about getting hit and that’s all common when you’re dealing with injuries.

“But he did it and got through it and he realized it wasn’t anything like he thought it would be. So I think what he went through last week allows him to be good this week. I really do, and I think he’s going to play great.”

Perhaps. And perhaps Selden, Oubre, Frank Mason, Jamari Traylor, Devonte‘ Graham and others will play great, too. Or closer to great than just OK or not very good.

It’s hard to know with Kansas.

“There have been moments where we’ve had really good outings,” Self said. “It’s been frustrating as a coach, because I haven’t been able to figure out the consistency part of it. But also, it’s encouraging to a coach knowing that your guys can play at a really high level when we play the way we’re capable of playing.”

Kansas is hoping for the best. But if you’ve watched this team, you have to be bracing for something less than that.

This story was originally published March 19, 2015 at 5:53 PM with the headline "Bob Lutz: With Kansas, anything is possible."