What can the Kansas City Chiefs get by trading down from No. 9 pick? It depends
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Chiefs weighing trade down from No. 9 to gain additional mid-round picks.
- Trade value charts guide negotiations but teams use private models and context.
- Move down increases draft capital and risk; outcomes vary by timing and targets.
Welcome to mock draft season.
Over the next two months, dozens if not hundreds of mock drafts will be published throughout the football stratosphere, with most analysts trying to project how the first round of the NFL Draft — set for Thursday night, April 23 — will play out.
It isn’t ideal for the Chiefs, but those mocks stand to be way more interesting this year. That’s because Kansas City holds the No. 9 overall pick, as opposed to one in the 28-to-32 range (territory to which they’d grown accustomed over the past half-decade).
Maybe the Chiefs take Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, who has drawn comparisons to Denver Broncos edge Nik Bonitto — a player who has given KC fits over the years. Maybe it’s Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, whom many would predict will be the team’s first elite running back since Jamaal Charles.
Or maybe — just maybe — the mock predictions won’t matter for Kansas City. Perhaps general manager Brett Veach decides to trade down.
As of February 2026, the Chiefs hold six picks in the 2026 draft (including a projected compensatory selection), so a trade-back would expand their expected class.
What can the Chiefs acquire in a trade-back?
The answer begins with understanding a trade chart — a diagram that assigns a numerical value to every pick in the draft.
The concept began with the original Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart in the 1990s and became the standard baseline until the 2000s, when analytics emerged and decision-makers began to question whether Johnson’s system was too front-loaded.
Later, draft analyst Rich Hill created a modernized version of the chart, and others — such as Fitzgerald-Spielberger and Harvard charts — entered the fold, too.
Nowadays, every NFL team is thought to have an in-house chart that it’s most comfortable using — and as one might guess, those sheets aren’t exactly available to the public.
Let’s take the Chiefs’ No. 9 overall pick. In this hypothetical scenario, Veach is thinking, “It’s Bailey or Love, or we back out and get more players.” Veach and former Chiefs executive Mike Borgonzi, now the Tennessee Titans’ GM, think alike, and Borgonzi nabs Bailey at No. 4.
Right before Kansas City picks, the New Orleans Saints, at No. 8, decide their Alvin Kamara successor is Love.
An often overlooked part of draft history: NFL GMs can get sniped, too.
Let’s continue with the hypothetical and say Veach is comfortable trading out of No. 9 for more bullets. He’d likely look at the board and talk it through with his personnel staff.
How far are they comfortable moving back to ensure the Chiefs still acquire a player with a first-round grade?
Let’s say that number is in the 15-18 range, and the phone rings. Buccaneers GM Jason Licht is willing to move from No. 15 to No. 9. The question now becomes, “What else will Tampa include?”
Using the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart, No. 9 (1,350 points) roughly matches No. 15 (1,050) plus No. 60 (300). Except the Bucs don’t have No. 60 in 2026; they have No 46 (440). That’s where the haggling would begin.
Other modern charts value picks differently, but they generally point to Kansas City receiving additional mid-round draft capital in a move from 9 to 15.
Of course, no public chart is definitive. As mentioned, the Chiefs and Buccaneers will rely on their own in-house models, and context can change everything. If Veach believes Licht is targeting a player he knows would be taken by the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 10, that leverage could improve Kansas City’s return.
Veach may reject the first offer and accept a richer one on a second call-back. He may pit two teams against each other, where one throws its chart out.
By now, you get it. There’s no exact science here, and that’s what makes it fascinating.
What are some trade-back examples in that range?
Trade-backs — and the trade-ups they enable — in that area of the draft can shape the league for years.
If you recall, the Buffalo Bills traded their 2017 No. 10 pick to the Chiefs, and Kansas City used that selection on Patrick Mahomes. The Bills eventually came away with three Pro Bowlers, which helps soften the fact they enabled the Chiefs to draft a quarterback who is 4-0 against them in the postseason.
Sometimes, it works out. Kind of.
Other recent examples include 2024, when the New York Jets moved just a spot back from No. 10, trading that pick and a seventh-rounder to the Minnesota Vikings (who selected quarterback JJ McCarthy). New York gained No. 11 and an extra fourth- and fifth-rounder. The Jets landed now-starting left tackle Olu Fashanu at 11.
In 2023, the Chicago Bears executed a similar move, trading No. 9 to the Philadelphia Eagles (who selected defensive tackle Jalen Carter) and moving just one pick back to No. 10 while adding a future fourth-rounder. Chicago still added its now-starting right tackle, Darnell Wright, at 10.
It’s not always that pretty.
In 2022, Washington sent its No. 11 pick to the New Orleans Saints (who selected wide receiver Chris Olave). Washington added a third- and fourth-rounder, but moving back five spots meant ending up with a less productive player in Jahan Dotson.
In a trade-down, the more you’re willing to wait before you’re on the clock in the first round, the greater the reward. But with the reward comes the risk — now amplified even more by camera crews inside draft rooms, ready to capture mistakes that get replayed forever.
So ... will the Chiefs actually trade down?
Since Veach’s first draft in 2018, he has shown a greater tendency to move up on draft weekend for players than move down.
With the Chiefs holding just six picks this time, perhaps that strategy shifts. Keep in mind, though, that the pick number isn’t really set yet, either.
Between now and draft weekend, for instance, the Chiefs could move cornerback Trent McDuffie, who is entering the final year of his contract and likely wants a new one. In that scenario, a 2026 second-rounder and 2027 third-rounder might make it digestible.
Suddenly, KC has two second-rounders in 2026 as part of seven picks total, and now the Chiefs may be willing to swing for the fences with a homegrown blue-chip prospect at No. 9.
Trade-downs this high aren’t impossible; they’re just tricky.
Both sides have to feel like they are set to pick in the wrong place at the wrong time, and are thus willing to make a deal in hopes of landing what they believe will be a better fit.
This story was originally published February 20, 2026 at 6:00 AM with the headline "What can the Kansas City Chiefs get by trading down from No. 9 pick? It depends."
