Now that the Kansas City Chiefs’ schedule is out, we can dive into deeper analysis about the potential toughest stretches.
And, thanks to early lines at DraftKings Sportsbook, it’s also possible this early to see which games project to be the most difficult.
Start with this: KC’s slate for 2025 appears to be front-loaded. According to current betting lines, five of the Chiefs’ six hardest matchups come before their Week 10 bye week ... and the other one takes place right after that in Week 11.
So, what are KC’s most challenging games as it stands now?
Let’s look at the six biggest tests in 2025, according to DraftKings’ point spreads (in reverse order).
6. Week 6, Lions at Chiefs
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass against Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah (97) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Line: Chiefs by 3.
Moneyline: $155 Chiefs bet to win game pays $100.
We probably shouldn’t be surprised that last season’s NFL No. 1 seeds will make for a compelling matchup this year. The Chiefs get this one at home, which provides a bit of a bump in a game they’re projected to be about 60% to win.
5. Week 1, Chiefs at Chargers (in Sao Paulo, Brazil)
Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Otito Ogbonnia (93) pressures Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) in the first half at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024. Terry Pierson TNS
Line: Chiefs by 3.
Moneyline: $148 Chiefs bet to win game pays $100.
No, it doesn’t start easily for the Chiefs. KC is a field-goal favorite in its international game to open the season while going against one of its top challengers in the AFC West.
T-3. Week 2, Eagles at Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) meet on the field after the Eagles’ 40-22 victory over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday, Feb. 9, 2025, in New Orleans. Emily Curiel ecuriel@kcstar.com
Line: Chiefs by 1 1/2.
Moneyline: $122 Chiefs bet to win game pays $100.
This year’s Super Bowl LVIII rematch should be more competitive than the original. The Chiefs open as a slight favorite over the defending champs, and given that home-field advantage has dropped to roughly 1.75 points in recent seasons, we can see that Vegas sportsbooks view these two teams as about equal heading into 2025.
T-3. Week 4, Ravens at Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) scores a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Denny Medley Imagn Images
Line: Chiefs by 1 1/2.
Moneyline: $122 Chiefs bet to win game pays $100.
One advantage of this year’s Chiefs schedule is they get to play most of their top opponents — like the Ravens — at home. Baltimore, which was a toe away from having a chance to beat KC last season, should be among the AFC’s top teams again in ‘25.
2. Week 11, Chiefs at Broncos
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix lofts a pass during the Kansas City Chiefs’ NFL Week 18 game at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025. Ron Chenoy Imagn Images
Line: Chiefs by 1 1/2.
Moneyline: $120 Chiefs bet to win game pays $100.
This game’s ranking surprised me the most. The Chargers seem to be a popular AFC West sleeper pick this offseason, but DraftKings actually has the Broncos with the second-best odds to claim the division behind the Chiefs.
Add in that there’s a real advantage to playing at home in altitude — across all sports — and it makes more sense that this division battle could be one of the closest scores of the entire season.
1. Week 9, Chiefs at Bills
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen stiff-arms Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie during a Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024 NFL Week 11 game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Line: Bills by 2 1/2.
Moneyline: $100 Chiefs bet to win game pays $114 more.
The Chiefs are betting underdogs in one game this season ... against the team that has dominated them recently in the games that matter least. Buffalo has four consecutive regular-season wins versus KC, but also has gone 0-4 in playoff games against the Chiefs since the 2020-21 campaign. The fans at Highmark Stadium are always fired up when the Chiefs come to town, and this one won’t be any different.
Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.
