Why this Chiefs draft could get interesting — and right away, too
In the days ahead of this week’s NFL Draft, members of the Chiefs’ front office gather in a room and conduct the same exercise as thousands of others outside those walls.
They’ll attempt to predict the draft — in a sport defined by its unpredictability.
The Chiefs cycle through hundreds of possibilities with a clear purpose — to avoid getting stuck. They own the 31st overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night, which places their fate in the hands of 30 predecessors.
What will those 30 teams do? It’s darn near impossible to say, much as we try, but that question dictates what the Chiefs can do.
Like oh so many others, I’ve been toying with the Pro Football Focus mock draft simulator — a terrifically entertaining way to burn far too much time.
If you simulate enough of these things, what becomes most apparent is this: Some tricky situations could pop up. Certain players could fall to No. 31 and force the Chiefs to make some particularly tough decisions.
Do you draft based on need, or are you truly going best-player-available?
I simulated the first round 100 times on the PFF tool to juice the sample size — though, to be clear, that is still a relatively small sample size.
Let’s tackle some of the most intriguing possibilities.
Colston Loveland, Michigan, tight end
During his pre-draft news conference last week, Chiefs general manager Brett Veach listed four positions atop the team’s preferences: defensive line (which actually includes both edge and interior lineman), offensive line, cornerback and wide receiver.
In that order, that’s likely where the Chiefs will go.
That’s where they should likely go.
But this is about the unexpected situations — the situations that could make the Chiefs take a second look.
The lead case: Colston Loveland.
You’ll notice that tight end is absent from those positional needs Veach mentioned, and, hey, with good reason. Travis Kelce is coming back for another year, and the team gave Noah Gray a second contract, too.
So why even consider Loveland?
He’s a top-15 talent, and when you pick at the back end of the first round every year, you so rarely have the opportunity to pluck a top-15 talent.
The statistics themselves don’t wow you, but Loveland played in run-heavy offenses and still had nine touchdowns and 1,200 yards over 25 games as a sophomore and junior.
What I really like: He’s more of a slot receiver than a traditional tight end, and this makes him a tough matchup. The tape shows him beating cornerbacks for jump balls and beating linebackers with speed.
No, he’s not Travis Kelce — far from it — but he’s a weapon in the passing game. And it’s hard to imagine how a Patrick Mahomes offense would function without a tight end who is a weapon in the passing game.
Hard, because, well, we’ve literally never seen it.
Even if Kelce is coming back for 2025, it’s not as though he will play forever.
Wouldn’t it be great if your replacement’s education on the NFL includes learning alongside one of the best tight ends in NFL history?
How frequently he was available at No. 31 using PFF Mock Draft Simulator: 32%
Verdict: Draft him if he’s available.
Luther Burden III, Missouri, wide receiver
In the simulations, he’s there.
A lot.
When Burden began his junior year in Columbia, his average mock draft stock had him as a top-10 pick.
The talent that drove him there didn’t suddenly vanish, but a pedestrian junior year for a top wideout (676 yards, only 11.1 yards per catch) has him falling. His average draft position has fallen as far as 28 this month, per Grinding The Mocks.
Burden has the size; he tracks the ball well; and he’s just about as good as you could imagine with the ball in his hands. He runs tough after the catch but manages to keep his balance in traffic.
That package could be a natural fit in Kansas City, given the Chiefs so frequently throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage or within 10 yards of it. That indeed would be intriguing.
But I’d be curious where exactly he would fit on the Chiefs’ depth chart, for one primary reason: He has played almost exclusively in the slot, and that’s the same spot where Rashee Rice sees the bulk of his snaps.
Burden can do more. Rice can, too. But it’s clear that’s where both operate best.
In the draft, there is a fine balance between directly duplicating a strong position and just simply adding good players. Burden is certainly the latter.
He’s talented enough that the Chiefs ought to consider it, but only if their primary targets at other premium positions are gone. (Which, yes, is possible.)
There are also some Day 2 possibilities to scoop up a wide receiver, so I’d be less inclined to consider it a need from the jump.
How frequently he was available at No. 31 using PFF Mock Draft Simulator: 65%
Verdict: Consider it, but only if top targets at other positions are gone.
Omarion Hampton, UNC, running back
Last week, Veach classified it as a “good likelihood” the Chiefs finish the draft with a running back.
It is the only position, in fact, that he categorized that way.
Hampton is a really good one. He led the ACC in rushing in back-to-back years — totaling more than 3,100 yards between those two seasons (25 games). And he’s a good weapon in the passing game, too.
What’s not to like?
Well, that’s the wrong question in this scenario. The correct one: Who else is there to like?
That list is lengthy.
See, there’s one more thing Veach said about this year’s running back class — it’s the deepest of any position.
If you truly believe that — and many general managers and scouts do — then you’ll have an opportunity to pluck another one in the third or fourth round, where it makes far more sense for this position anyway.
How frequently he was available at No. 31 using PFF Mock Draft Simulator: 20%
Verdict: Pass.
This story was originally published April 23, 2025 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Why this Chiefs draft could get interesting — and right away, too."