This NFL stat was mostly about luck — until Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes came along

Kansas City Chiefs safety Justin Reid says there are times this season on third-and-long when he’s buckled up his helmet’s chin strap ... only to unstrap it a few seconds later.

“I’m getting ready to go out in the field to play defense, and somehow, it’s a first down. So get to kick my feet up for a little bit longer,” Reid said with a smile. “So it’s nice being on this side of it.”

Reid certainly has experienced what it’s like when quarterback Patrick Mahomes is not on his team too.

During his first four seasons with the Houston Texans, Reid said the gameplan when going against Mahomes on third downs was trying not to let him break contain; his ability to do that put stress on secondary players, which often meant they had to keep their coverage assignments for eight or nine seconds.

“We tried to keep him in the pocket — unsuccessfully,” Reid said. “And then we just tried to play tight coverage because we knew that he was gonna make some throws, gonna win some downs.”

This season, it turns out, Mahomes has taken his late-down playmaking to a whole new level — while also forcing NFL analysts to reconsider what they believed possible at the position.

Is it true that Mahomes, more than any QB in history, has an ability to swing fortune in his own favor?

Not ‘luck’ for Mahomes

On his stats-based website rbsdm.com, Ben Baldwin lists third-down conversion as a “luck” stat.

The reason? For the most part, that’s exactly what it is.

One doesn’t have to look too far for examples. The Arizona Cardinals started 7-2 last season while posting league-best numbers on third downs on both offense and defense; when those numbers fell to middle of the pack late in the season, they faded to an 11-6 finish.

Third downs, in other words, can be finicky. They can be random and prone to reverting to the norm in both directions.

Unless, of course, you are dealing with the Chiefs and Mahomes.

Baldwin, a contributor for The Athletic and a research economist for his full-time job, says 2022 has continued a trend that shows no signs of ceasing.

“Most quarterbacks tend to regress on third downs from one season to the next,” Baldwin said, “but Mahomes appears to be impervious to this.”

This year has been no different — and perhaps an even greater indication of Mahomes’ outlier ability.

Data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS) gives a telling glimpse, especially regarding third-and-longs. Sort by all third-down plays with eight or more yards to go, and the Chiefs have 33.31 expected points added on those downs this season.

It’s a staggering number when compared to the rest of the league. Second place? That would be Chicago at 14.69 expected points added, less than half KC’s total with Mahomes.

Some other per-play numbers are just as silly. For example, on those third-and-eight-plus downs, Kansas City is averaging 17 adjusted net yards per pass attempt — an advanced statistic that factors in touchdowns and also yards lost on sacks and turnovers. To give some context, the highest full-season number for any NFL team in the last eight seasons with that split is the 2019 Dallas Cowboys, who averaged 11.4 adjusted net yards per pass attempt — some 5 1/2 yards fewer per throw than this year’s Chiefs.

Mahomes’ numbers this year on third-and-eight plus? Seventeen-for-23 passing for 425 yards on 25 dropbacks.

More than chance

As mentioned before, this hasn’t been a one-year fluke.

Baldwin, on his site, tracks a stat labeled “Third down conversion percentage over expected.” In essence, it looks at each team’s third-down situations, then calculates how much better a worse a team is in those scenarios compared to league average.

Since 2018 — Mahomes’ first year as a full-time starter — the Chiefs are converting 8.1% better than league average on third downs, easily the top mark in the NFL ahead of the second-place Atlanta Falcons (4.9%).

What might be more astonishing is the consistency. The Chiefs’ rank in those five seasons has never dipped below fourth. KC’s 10%-above-average total this year also is pacing for the best mark of any Mahomes-led season.

Though future-hall-of-fame coach Andy Reid deserves immense credit for the Chiefs’ offensive success since his KC arrival in 2013 ... this seems to be a characteristic Mahomes can mostly claim for his own.

With Reid as coach from 2013-17 (and before Mahomes was the starter), the Chiefs ranked 19th in “Third down conversion percentage over expected” at +0.2%. In those five seasons, KC’s best showing in the stat was 15th in 2013.

‘An incredible weapon’

Add it all up, and Baldwin says NFL fans shouldn’t take this part of Mahomes’ greatness for granted.

The Chiefs QB has only added to his dominance this season on a down that has been nearly impossible to control.

While also shifting the foundation of what might be imaginable at the position.

“His combination of sack avoidance, selective scrambling, and willingness to hunt throws past the sticks,” Baldwin said, “make him an incredible weapon on third downs.”

This story was originally published November 2, 2022 at 8:00 AM with the headline "This NFL stat was mostly about luck — until Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes came along."

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.