Rookie grades: The Chiefs tied their future to nailing the draft. So far? A mixed bag
The Chiefs implemented a commitment last March that would pin the spine of their long-term future on the draft, rather than big-money contracts to players not named Patrick Mahomes.
We talked about that in the aftermath of a Tyreek Hill trade that is increasingly looking beneficial for both sides involved. The Chiefs collected draft assets as their primary source of capital for years to come.
Let’s check in on the return.
The NFL season is just 7 weeks old, so these are certainly early returns on the 2022 draft class. But these seven weeks offer our best indication of how it could shake out. And there’s certainly enough evidence to analyze what kind of impact the Chiefs have already received from their 10 draft selections.
Which is precisely what awaits here. These are grades for the performances to date — not for future projections, a key distinction — as the Chiefs enjoy a bye in Week 8.
Note: Keep in mind I am grading the picks based on where they were selected. A first-round pick certainly has loftier expectations to meet than a seventh-rounder would. Think of it as grading on a curve.
Trent McDuffie, cornerback (1st round, 21st overall)
Grade: Incomplete
We’ve seen McDuffie for all of 32 snaps this season; he was one of two Chiefs players undone by the loose turf in Arizona in the season opener. He is likely to return from his hamstring injury quickly after the bye, when the evaluation can begin. And he should slide back into his starting role as an outside cornerback. For what it’s worth, in his lone action, McDuffie did not allow a completion in those 32 snaps.
The grade is incomplete due to playing time, but this doesn’t look like a pick the Chiefs will regret, even if they had to trade up to get him.
George Karlaftis, defensive end (1st round, 30th overall)
Grade: C+
Look, I’m fully aware of the statistic that Karlaftis leads all rookies with 20 total quarterback pressures.
But he’s had more pass-rush snaps than any of them, too. His win rate of 11.1%, per Pro Football Focus, ranks sixth among rookies. That number is quite average.
Karlaftis has been on the field a ton this year — 352 defensive snaps — and has just half a sack and six solo tackles to show for it.
He was always thought to be more of a high-floor than a high-ceiling guy, but he’s not yet scratched that ceiling. We’ve not yet seen plays that wreck a game — or even a drive, for that matter. He will get better over the second half, but until he does, the grade is what it is.
Skyy Moore, wide receiver (2nd round, 54th overall)
Grade: C-
This is a tougher one than meets the eye. Moore has been a disaster as a punt returner — the Chiefs are likely 6-1, not 5-2 at the bye if not for his fumble in Indianapolis. And Moore hasn’t made much of an impact as a receiver, either.
But some of the advanced metrics show he has an ability to get open when he does get on the field. He’s fourth among all NFL receivers in points earned per route run, according to Sports Info Solutions. He creates separation more frequently than his counterparts on the Chiefs, per Next Gen Stats.
The obvious conclusion is that Moore is just not yet comfortable with the intricacies within a play — which is not to be confused with not knowing the playbook. As it turns out, for example, that Patrick Mahomes interception in San Francisco derived from Moore not reading the safety and instinctively knowing to cut his route shorter.
Those are the kinds of mistakes that make it hard for a coach to offer you more playing time. On the other hand, they’re the kinds of mistakes that are correctable, and once corrected, the talent is there to take off.
Among the entire rookie class, Moore should enjoy the biggest jump from his arrival to the conclusion of his time in Kansas City.
But we’re just not there yet.
Bryan Cook, safety (2nd round, 62nd overall)
Grade: B
Cook is already developing into a pretty valuable jack-of-all-trades piece for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. It’s an encouraging sign that he immediately was lining up in different spots within the dime package, both as a deep safety and in-the-box defender (and even once as a blitzer).
Cook had his best game in Tampa Bay, his only game playing more than 25 snaps this season. He played 47 snaps and had five tackles, one pass break-up and a quarterback hit. He has the appearance of a future starting safety in this league, a relevant note with Juan Thornhill on an expiring contract.
Leo Chenal, linebacker (3rd round, 103rd overall)
Grade: C
The Willie Gay suspension has helped provide Chenal with instant opportunities — he’s already topped 100 snaps — but he doesn’t have a whole lot to show for it. Chenal can sort of of disappear in games. (Ask yourself if you can recall his most memorable play of the first seven weeks.)
Eighteen players have as many snaps as Chenal for the Chiefs this year, and none have a worse missed tackle rate (30%) than he does. He has just four solo tackles and four assists in the seven weeks, and he’s started three games.
With Willie Gay’s return from suspension and Darrius Harris showing an ability to move spots, Chenal could see a dip in playing time. Harris has earned the right to stay on the field.
Joshua Williams, cornerback (4th round, 135th overall)
Grade: A-
Coming from a Division II school, Joshua Williams had the biggest jump to make. The selection was more designed for the longer-term future, but he’s already made an impact in the short-term. You could say his interception against San Francisco was among the two or three most important plays of that game, and I wouldn’t argue it.
And that it came on the heels of a rough outing against the Bills suggests Williams has the mental capability to play a position that most often is in the spotlight when you get beat.
Among rookie cornerbacks, Williams ranks eighth among 18 cornerbacks who have played at least 100 snaps, per PFF. In that stat, overall grade, he barely trails Buffalo rookie Kaiir Elam, a first-round pick who has received plenty of praise already.
A fourth-round pick who last year at this time was covering D-II receivers? Uh, yeah, you’ll take that.
Darian Kinnard, offensive tackle (5th round, 145th overall)
Grade: Incomplete
Kinnard struggled in training camp, enough that he was on the roster bubble. He has played only six special teams snaps this year. No, it’s not a good sign. The incomplete grade is a favor.
Jaylen Watson, cornerback (7th round, 243rd overall)
Grade: A
The majority of the seventh round of an NFL Draft can turn into fliers — where you feel fortunate just to get something out of a pick.
Watson won the Chiefs a game.
How much more can you ask for?
His pick-6 against the Chargers flipped a Thursday Night matchup on its head, and the Chiefs very likely don’t win without it.
He’s been far from perfect overall, with some growing pains mixed in there, but there’s a lot to like about drafting a cornerback in the seventh round and receiving that sort of return.
Isiah Pacheco, running back (7th round, 251st overall)
Grade: B
If you’ve come to this space before, you know I’ve been quite reluctant to buy into the Pacheco hype. But as aforementioned, the grading system is based on draft location. And it’s hard to ask much more out of a seventh-round pick than a guy who is slowly but surely moving atop the running back depth chart.
The other hand, though, is that the ascension is more of a reflection of the ineffectiveness of starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire than it is Pacheco knocking down the door. Pacheco has some obvious limitations right now — his vision and patience remain impediments, not yet strengths. That can improve.
While he’s shown a willingness to be physical, he’s not super productive in that role. He has a broken and missed tackle rate of just 5.1%, which ranks 65th among 69 running backs with at least 25 carries this year, per SIS.
It’s great to get value of a seventh-round pick, and the Chiefs got some, but need to see more before it’s a full-fledged home run pick worthy of the A-grade.
Nazeeh Johnson, defensive back (7th round, 259th overall)
Grade: Incomplete
Johnson did not make the team out of camp — which is not terribly surprising given it was a 10-player draft class and he was the final selection — but he was later signed back to the active roster. He has appeared in three games, but all as a special teams player.
This story was originally published October 27, 2022 at 5:30 AM with the headline "Rookie grades: The Chiefs tied their future to nailing the draft. So far? A mixed bag."