Why this drive — not the last one — proved most costly to Chiefs in loss to Bills
The final plays get all the glory, right? All the praise and all the celebration from one side, and all the criticism and fine-tooth-comb analysis from the other.
And, hey, when the Chiefs’ final offensive snap a 24-20 loss to the Bills is an interception, they’re offering us little choice but to break it down from every possible angle. It’s not exactly insignificant.
But I want to backtrack to a Chiefs offensive possession earlier in the fourth quarter. The final deficit Sunday was four points, and the Chiefs best opportunity to make up that ground arrived not on their final possession, still 70 yards from a score, but rather before they even knew they would have ground to make up.
The Chiefs had the ball early in the fourth quarter in a tie game, and they moved into the Bills’ territory. They earned a new set of downs 26 yards shy of the end zone.
The box score for the ensuing three plays reads as an incomplete pass, then a completion that lost three yards, followed by a quarterback scramble for three yards. Harrison Butker would make a field goal to give the Chiefs a 20-17 lead.
That was that.
But that should have been more.
A day after an outcome that could potentially determine the location of important postseason games in January, it’s the possession I keep coming back to — because this series of plays comprises the ultimate what if.
Let’s take it snap by snap.
(A note: I asked Chiefs coach Andy Reid on Monday about this series of downs, and he commented on each of the three play in one swoop. I’ve broken those comments into thirds for clarity.)
First and 10, Buffalo 26
With the Chiefs arranged at the line of scrimmage, quarterback Patrick Mahomes spotted something in the Bills defensive alignment, perhaps a blitz indicator, and he abruptly audibled out of the original play.
On the broadcast, you can see him approach the line of scrimmage, point to his helmet and yell, “Alert, alert, alert!”
And then he repeats it three more times: “Alert, alert, alert!”
He nailed the audible.
He did not nail the throw.
The Bills indeed brought two extra rushers, both from their right side, and the Chiefs had the perfect play for it — a screen pass to that exact side to fullback Michael Burton.
One problem: Mahomes missed him. He put too much velocity on the pass, and it was slightly too far to Burton’s right. It fell incomplete.
But, man, the play was open. So open, in fact, that center Creed Humphrey, who had moved into the open field as a lead blocker, hopped up and down, knowing Burton could have run for days had he caught the pass.
Reid: “We actually had an alert on that play where you could go to a screen against a certain look. We did, and were just off by a tick. I mean, he catches that, and that’s a big play.”
Missed opportunity No. 1.
Two to go.
Second and 10, Buffalo 26
Travis Kelce is in motion to Mahomes’ right, but that’s eye candy for the outlet on the play.
Mahomes again appears to identify the Bills’ plans pre-snap, which includes another blitz from the right side. So immediately after he receives the football in the shotgun, Mahomes sends a swing pass to running back Isiah Pacheco to that side. Pacheco is locked in a one-man-to-beat situation with linebacker Matt Milano, and, frankly, running backs just have to win here.
The Chiefs’ running backs aren’t winning enough one-on-one. If Pacheco gets past Milano, he’s going to see nothing but open field until the first-down marker.
But he does not get past Milano. Instead, Milano wraps him up quickly for a three-yard loss.
Reid: “Obviously, 58 did a nice job with the tackle,” he began, before turning to Pacheco’s role in the play. “You gotta get your feet up. You can learn from that. Now that’s a young kid right there (who’s) very, very intense and tough. But you can try to kick yourself out of that best you can. Though it was a good tackle — you give him credit on that.”
Missed opportunity No. 2. And the same story as first down: Right play. A failure in execution.
One chance left, though.
Third and 13, Buffalo 29
On his initial eight third-down throws, Mahomes completed six passes, two of them for touchdowns. On the next, he should’ve been content to not throw a pass at all.
Von Miller disrupts the play before the Chiefs receivers can even get to the sticks, beating left tackle Orlando Brown with a speed move around the edge — the move that gives Brown the most trouble — and Mahomes is forced into scramble mode.
Knowing he needs 13 yards for a first down, as opposed to something like five or six, Mahomes wants to continue looking downfield for an opening. But he had that opening with his legs on the left side — with offensive linemen Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey prepared to serve as his lead blockers.
I still think it’s only 50-50 that Mahomes can actually get the first down with his feet — Milano seemed to anticipate the run and was starting to take an angle on it — but on 3rd-and-13, that 50% is a better percentage than the chance for a completion downfield.
Reid: “Pat was trying to make something happen with the throw — believe it was 3rd and 13 or somewhere in that area — and, yeah, potentially he could have run down the left side. But he was trying to get a little bit more with the throw, if he could, and get a first down.”
On fourth down, Butker would trot onto the field for a 44-yard field goal, which is perhaps why the final two Chiefs possessions receive more attention — they each resulted in zero points. This one at least got three.
But in the woulda, coulda, shoulda, this possession provided the clear-cut opportunities those did not.
The difference in the touchdown and field goal? Four points, same as the final margin.
This story was originally published October 18, 2022 at 6:30 AM with the headline "Why this drive — not the last one — proved most costly to Chiefs in loss to Bills."