How the KC Chiefs can score a critical win at Denver Broncos as NFL playoffs approach
The Chiefs and Denver Broncos finish the regular season on Saturday with another AFC West battle at Empower Field at Mile High.
Week 18’s matchup marks the 124th between the divisional foes, with the Chiefs (11-5) possessing a 68-54 edge in their all-time series with Denver (7-9).
The Chiefs have dominated the Broncos over the past seven seasons, reeling off 12 straight wins, including a 22-9 victory in Week 13 at Arrowhead Stadium, since 2015.
Coming off a painful loss at the Cincinnati Bengals, expect the Chiefs to be laser-focused when they take the field Saturday afternoon.
“We’re on to the Broncos and it’s a short week,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Tuesday. “So, we’re past (the loss) and going forward.”
The Chiefs need to concentrate on the task at hand because of what’s at stake on the final weekend regular-season. The Chiefs (11-5) have dropped into a tie with the Tennessee Titans (11-5) in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed. A win, combined with a Titans loss Sunday, would gives the Chiefs a first-round bye and homefield advantage in the postseason.
If the Chiefs and Titans finish the regular season with identical records, the Titans own the tiebreaker thanks to a Week 7 win over the Chiefs.
While the Broncos are out of the playoff chase, there’s plenty at stake for the Chiefs on Saturday in Denver. Here are four key areas to monitor.
FORGET LAST WEEKEND
If any Chiefs position group needs to move on from last weekend’s loss, it’s the defensive backs — especially cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and L’Jarius Sneed.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow torched the Chiefs for 446 yards and four touchdowns en route to a 148.0 passer rating. Rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase was Burrow’s favorite target, hauling in 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns. Two of his touchdowns went for 72 yards and 69 yards.
“That was a really good player that they went up against,” Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said of his secondary. “He made some plays. That’s a really good quarterback. I’m going to give them all kinds of credit.”
Like the Bengals, the Broncos have a good trio of receivers in Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy, who returns from the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Of course, Denver doesn’t have Burrow under center. The Broncos’ passing game ranks 19th in the league at 213.8 yards per game. And with Teddy Bridgewater on injured reserve, the Broncos are back to third-year pro Drew Lock.
Lock has weapons. If the Lee’s Summit native plays like the Broncos had hoped he would when they picked him in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Mizzou, the hosts could put up some points.
Just don’t expect the Chiefs to change much about how they cover opposing wide receivers.
“I would not want our guys to change in terms of their aggressiveness,” Spagnuolo said.
SECOND-HALF MOMENTUM
The Chiefs’ offense should utilize Saturday’s game as a tune-up for the postseason. That means no disappearing acts after the first half.
Last weekend, they put up 28 points in the first half and just 3 in the second. And this is not a new issue. The Chiefs have started fast on offense only to sputter later in multiple games.
Stats alone don’t tell the full story. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks third in total yards (397.3 per game), second in passing (283.5 per game), fourth in points (28.3 per game) and first in third-down percentage (51.8%).
“At times we’re clicking and doing certain things, and at times we’re not,” Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said. “So we’ve got to go back always to ground zero, and that’s the purpose of why we practice. ... (F)undamentals, and just making sure we’re detailing all the details.”
The capable Broncos defense enters the weekend ranked ninth in the league at 322.1 yards allowed per game, and a stout third in points allowed (18.4 per game).
GET MAHOMES GOING
If there’s an area in which the Broncos’ defense has struggled, it’s third-down percentage: They allow opponents to convert 44.1% of the time, ranking 27th in the league.
Mahomes, who posted a career-low 57.3 passer rating against the Broncos in Week 13, needs to help keep the chains moving on third downs Saturday. The Broncos simply aren’t good at getting off the field in those situations.
The Chiefs won their last matchup with the Broncos 22-9 but converted just five of 12 third-down opportunities. Mahomes was 15 of 29 for 184 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.
If he can get on track early this time — and the offense on the whole avoids a late fade — the Chiefs could build themselves some momentum for the playoffs.
PIN BACK THE EARS
The Chiefs will be facing a suspect Denver offensive line. Starting guard Dalton Risner, the K-State product, recently landed on injured reserve.
Before he, too, was placed on injured reserve, Bridgewater had been sacked 31 times. Lock has been taken down eight times in five appearances (two starts).
The Chiefs’ pass rush, anchored by Chris Jones (team-high nine sacks), Frank Clark (4.5) and Melvin Ingram, will aim to pressure Lock and make him uncomfortable. Uncomfortable quarterbacks make mistakes.
This story was originally published January 6, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "How the KC Chiefs can score a critical win at Denver Broncos as NFL playoffs approach."
