Who the Chiefs could play next week ... and who they should want to play
The Chiefs starters spent the past week enjoying the luxuries of winning 14 of their initial 15 games — a break. They opted for a double bye, resting players in the regular season finale after having locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and so players like Patrick Mahomes sat back and watched.
And again this week, they wait.
On whom?
The Chiefs will play one of four teams in the AFC Divisional Round — the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Colts.
As the top seed, the Chiefs will host the lowest remaining seed on either Jan. 16 or Jan. 17 at Arrowhead Stadium, which leaves this as the simplest explanation:
• If the seventh-seeded Colts upset the second-seeded Bills, the Chiefs will play the Colts, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
• If the Bills win and the sixth-seeded Browns beat the third-seeded Steelers, the Browns travel to Kansas City.
• If the Bills and Steelers both hold serve on their home fields, the Chiefs will face the winner of the Titans-Ravens game.
With those four possibilities in mind, here’s a look at each of their potential matchups with the Chiefs:
Tennessee Titans (11-5, AFC South champion, No. 4 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: Their passing game. So, you, know, their strength. The Titans have allowed 398.3 yards per game, fifth most in the NFL, and they’re actually the only playoff team that finished in the bottom 10 in that category. They’re particularly bad against the pass, allowing 277.4 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s compounded by the fact they don’t pressure the quarterback, recording only 19 sacks all season. If you give Patrick Mahomes time to throw it and you don’t cover receivers well, that’s not a great formula to beat the Chiefs.
Cause for concern: Derrick Henry. Need we say more? He’s overpowered the Chiefs in a playoff game before, and he just completed his career-best season, finishing with 2,027 rushing yards. That’s the fifth most in NFL history. The Chiefs are 31st in rush defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Oh, and Ryan Tannehill ain’t bad either. He had 33 touchdowns, and his 106.5 quarterback rating was fifth best in football. If this is indeed the matchup, expect some points.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC Wild Card, No. 5 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: The Chiefs already beat the Ravens in Week 3, and they did so in such a convincing manner that it certainly didn’t appear to be a fluke. Quarterback Lamar Jackson managed only 97 passing yards on 28 attempts. He’s last year’s reigning MVP winner, but he’s never given the Chiefs much a problem. Three games. Three losses. The Ravens have the league’s worst passing offense, and it’s hard to win in the playoffs, particularly after falling behind, when you can’t pass the ball effectively in situations in which you have to pass the ball. Jackson is 0-2 in the playoffs with a 68.3 rating. He’s in prove-it mode.
Cause for concern: They’re hot at the right time. The Ravens are unbeaten since Jackson returned from the COVID-19 list, riding a five-game winning streak into the playoffs. They’ve led the league in points over that time frame and despite losing five games, they actually finished the season with the best point differential in the NFL. The Ravens average 191.9 rushing yards per game, 23 more than anyone else.
Cleveland Browns (11-5, AFC Wild Card, No. 6 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: The Browns are in the playoffs for the first time in 18 seasons, and deservedly so, but they remain an inconsistent performer on the whole. Baker Mayfield failed to reach even 200 passing yards in nearly half the Browns’ games. The Browns struggled to get past the Bengals twice, and won by five or less against Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville. Defensively, they allow nearly 250 passing yards per game, and they’re susceptible to the big play. They’ve allowed 10 plays of 40-plus yards, seventh most in the NFL. Hmm. What team might be able to expose that?
Cause for concern: The offensive line is good. Really good. Pro Football Focus rates the Browns as the best run blocking team in the NFL and the best pass blocking team. Nobody in the league has more time to throw than Mayfield. If a team is able to neutralize the Chiefs’ pass rush, it could lead to long drives, fewer overall possessions and a recipe for an upset.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5, AFC Wild Card, No. 7 seed)
Where the Chiefs could benefit: It’s hard to imagine Philip Rivers strikes much fear into the Chiefs. He’s beaten them only once in his last 12 tries, and it required a game-winning two-point conversion. At 39 years old, his best days are pretty obviously behind him. The Colts defense carried this team early, but the secondary has showed some leaks lately, allowing four of their past opponents to throw for 300-plus yards. The Chiefs, uh, like to throw it.
Cause for concern: The Colts win in the trenches, and that’s not a bad blueprint in January. They protect well, having allowed only 21 sacks, second fewest in the NFL, and they open up running lanes. Rookie Jonathan Taylor averaged 5.0 yards per carry, stamped with a 253-yard outing in the season finale. And defensively, the Colts have allowed just 1,448 rushing yards, also second fewest in the league.
This story was originally published January 7, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Who the Chiefs could play next week ... and who they should want to play."