History suggests Patrick Mahomes’ new contract could be cumbersome by its conclusion
Fewer than 24 hours after signing a contract that will pay him half a billion, Patrick Mahomes, his general manager and his coach remarked that the Chiefs quarterback actually left a little money on the table. That the richest deal in American sports history could’ve been richer.
It’s not wrong, either.
Mahomes further characterized a 10-year extension as one that will allow room for his teammates to “be rewarded.”
Equally accurate?
Mahomes signed a heavily-backloaded deal that left the 2020 and 2021 salary cap virtually untouched, a compromise that directly paved the way for the Chiefs to sign defensive tackle Chris Jones to big money. So, yes, in the near term, the creativity of the front office and a willingness from Mahomes pried open an opportunity for teammates to be paid.
As for the long-term, the Chiefs are tied to their quarterback in an arrangement of which is difficult to wiggle out, thanks to guaranteed mechanisms that activate a year and a half in advance. The hope, of course, is they will never want to wiggle out of the deal. If 31 other NFL teams had the opportunity to ink the same contract, there would be a dead sprint to the table. What better athlete to bet on for the next decade?
This is simply an analysis of how significantly it might shape the remainder of the Chiefs roster over the last half of the decade. Will it really allow enough space to secure talent with which to surround the franchise quarterback?
We’ll look at the year-by-year numbers in a minute. But first, let’s put into context the data that follows.
Since the 1995 season, the highest percentage of a team’s salary cap any Super Bowl-winning quarterback has occupied was New England’s Tom Brady in 2018 — his salary accounted accounted for 12.21% of the cap, using figures from OverTheCap and Spotrac. (Three quarterbacks have won while occupying less than 1% of the cap — Brady in 2001, Seattle’s Russell Wilson in 2013 and Philadelphia’s Nick Foles in 2017.)
So there’s the context and the championship benchmark over the past 25 years— 12.21%.
Now, back to the Chiefs and Mahomes. In 2019, which would end with the franchise’s first championship in a half-century, Mahomes ate up 2.36% of the cap. In 2020, and this is part of the creativity of his deal and the reason it’s been classified as “team friendly,” he will still require only 2.7% of the cap.
It becomes more difficult to calculate from there, with the salary caps for 2021 and beyond in limbo. Cap figures are based on previous season revenues, and teams are almost certain to encounter a hole in their proverbial pockets in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We just don’t know. We don’t know how the NFL and NFLPA are going to handle the loss of revenue yet,” said Joel Corry, an NFL salary cap expert and former agent. “At some point, there are going to be new TV deals, too, so we’re going to have a huge spike there. Gambling revenue is supposed to be an emerging stream. So given all of that and COVID-19, it would be impossible to project anything out.”
There’s no way to compute how big of a piece of the pie Mahomes will represent over the duration of the contract. At least not today. The only firm numbers we have rest in Mahomes’ earnings. He is set to make $31.45 million 2022, $42.45 million in 2023, $39.95 million in 2024, $41.95 million in 2025, $41.95 million in 2026, $59.95 million in 2027, $44.45 million in 2028, $44.95 million in 2029, $50.45 million in 2030 and $52.45 million in 2031.
Starting in 2023, when his yearly salary eclipses $40 million for the first time, it’s quite likely that Mahomes will employ more than 12% of the cap. (The jump arrives after new TV deals will be in place, but the cap would need to be above $327 million for this not to be the case. It’s at $198.2 million for 2020.)
Mahomes and the Chiefs, in other words, might have to buck a trend to win a Super Bowl. Or at least break a streak.
There could be ways to bring his number down in the later years — either with a restructure or by converting some of his roster bonus to a signing bonus. The Chiefs have the luxury of time before those decisions must be made. They also have a history of ingenuity. Evidence: they just completed one of the most savvy offseasons in recent memory, despite a cap that suggested a treacherous road.
But let’s delve deeper. While the Super Bowl is an important factor in determining success — the most important one — it’s not the only one. Several contending teams — annual contenders, at that — pay their quarterbacks a lot of money. Seattle. Green Bay. They still win with regularity.
So let’s pull back the microscope a bit to analyze postseason success over the past five years.
In 2019, the eight largest quarterback cap hits were Detroit’s Matt Stafford, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, Seattle’s Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, New York’s Eli Manning, Carolina’s Cam Newton and Los Angeles’ Philip Rivers, per numbers from OverTheCap. Only three of those teams reached the postseason, each winning just one playoff game.
In 2018, the nine largest quarterback cap hits combined for only two playoff wins.
In 2017, the 18 largest quarterback cap hits combined for just three playoffs wins.
In 2016, among the 10 largest quarterback cap hits, five made the playoffs and combined for 6 playoff wins. (By the way, had the Falcons not blown the Super Bowl that season, Matt Ryan would have provided an exception to the championship-winning statistic. The Falcons used 15.3% of the cap on his contract.)
In 2015, the 10 largest quarterback cap hits combined for six playoff wins. That included three from Denver’s Peyton Manning, who was sixth on the list. He remains the most recent player to be among the league’s nine highest-paid quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl.
Together, the last five years don’t appear to offer a lot of optimism. In one lump sum, the Mahomes’ dent in the salary cap could be cumbersome.
That’s not to say a mega-deal for a quarterback prevents team prosperity. It doesn’t. More accurately, it requires the quarterback’s performance to correlate with his paycheck. The margin for error thins. Ahem. In two seasons, Mahomes has two MVP awards on his shelf — one in the regular season and one in the Super Bowl. (Perhaps a tad different than locking an expensive future into Stafford, whose resume includes zero career playoff wins.)
The Mahomes contract is a future obstacle. Not a brick wall. The Chiefs will have to navigate it.
Maybe you believe Mahomes is better than his predecessors and therefore toss aside any comparisons to historical data. You can make that argument.
Maybe you believe Chiefs general manager Brett Veach and his front-office staff are establishing a track record for making it all fit. For getting creative with big-money players. For finding small-dollar yet impact additions. You can make that argument, too.
Those points will soon become more necessary than luxury.
And maybe, just maybe, all that will be enough to turn Mahomes into the exception rather than the rule.
In yet one more criteria.
This story was originally published July 16, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "History suggests Patrick Mahomes’ new contract could be cumbersome by its conclusion."